Busy Week Due TONIGHT – policy paper part 3 Due TOMORROW IN CLASS – isidewith homework DUE THURSDAY night – policy part 4 QUIZ on FRIDAY TEST NEXT WEDNESDAY

What is Public Opinion? Def: – Attitudes about institutions, leaders, issues, & events – Specific groups’ thoughts about a certain policy issue or event at a given point in time Unstable Many Americans Uninformed Subject to many influences…What influences public opinion? Uses – Measure popularity/success of policy – Define issues & guide decisions What influences public opinion? Groups? History of trying to infl. pub. opinion – Ex. Federalist Papers

Measuring Public Opinion How is public opinion measured? – Polls – Elections – Interest Groups – Media Coverage

What are polls? What are polls used for? – Measure of public opinion – Track/monitor short term developments; influence strategy Key Elements to Scientific Polling – Picking a sample…is it representative? Random Sampling – What is an effective sample size? – Contact: When/How?...phone/face to face Exit Polls – Phrasing Questions…avoid bias – Questions must provide an option – Findings influenced by the process – Analyze & Report Data – Margin of Error

Political Polls Tracking Polls: – Monitor short term developments and impact strategies (daily) – Small samples Exit Polls – Election Day… – What’s a common criticism of Exit Polls? Polls: A tool for democracy? – Provide way for public to express its opinions – Enables politicians to implement public preferences on key issues

Criticisms of Polls Polls transform leaders into followers Distort Election Process – Bandwagon Effect; Exit Polls Bandwagon Effect: polls can influence people to support a candidate simply because they see others doing so – Media & Polls Influences Elections/how public perceives an issue Sampling Error/Quality of Sample Sample’s knowledge of topic – Can’t measure intangibles (sample’s intensity/ stability of beliefs) Power of wording

Power of Words…Frank Luntz Language Error: “Estate Tax” Adjustment: “Death Tax” Language Error: “Relaxed Air Quality Standards” Adjustment: “Clear Skies Initiative” Language Error: “Smaller Government” Adjustment: “More Effective & Efficient Govt.” Language Error: “Control the growth of Social Security & Medicare” Adjustment: “Save & Strengthen Entitlements”

Media and Public Opinion How does the media play a role in public opinion? – Agenda Setting (Gatekeeper) – Bias – Source of Pol. Info – Differences between media Criticisms of media – Oversimplify complex issues – Reduce major stories to sound-bites – Focus on the sensational & trivial – Constant polling leads to… Polls: Telling America What to Think

Pew Research Polls: Partisan Politics, Distrust in Government…What gives?

Political Culture Def: set of widely shared political beliefs and values Values/Beliefs about Political System – Liberty – Equality-opportunity /due process/equal protection – Individualism (limits on this?) – Democracy/Pop. Consent – Civic Duty – Justice – Nationalism/Idealism If ideals shared, why so much conflict?

Sources of Pol. Culture Experience with British: mistrust authority/power Political Parties Religious Diversity Family Values Class

Political Socialization – Process thru which a person acquires their knowledge, feelings, & evaluations of the pol. World (political values)…continual process Public Opinion = End result of this process

Influences on Political Socialization Family – Most influential earlier in life – Trend of passing on party ID ↓, why? Media – Huge increase w/ internet; 24 hr. news cycle – Narrowcasting School/Education – National values – Liberalizing effect of college – Higher levels of participation Religion – Catholics/Jews—Liberal – Protestant/Evangelicals—Conservative Occupation – Professors/Lawyers—Liberal – Oil Industry/Defense--Conservative Peers & Social Groups Growing influence around High School Political Events – Major events shift thinking—New Deal; 9/11

What’s Meant by Liberal & Conservative Ideology: – Coherent set of beliefs about politics, public policy, & role of government – Measure in terms of frequency of self-identification – Gives meaning to pol. events/policies/personalities

Impact of Demographics Age – Youth: More liberal; Least likely to vote – Elderly: Highest pol. Participation; Conserv. Gender – Gender Gap: Women more liberal – Men more conservative Income Level – Wealthier—more conservative Race – Minorities—more liberal

What is Meant by Liberal & Conservative Left…Liberals – Pol. & Social Reform – Govt. Reg. of Economy – Support equality for women, minorities, poor – Nat’l Healthcare – Pro-Choice – Judicial Activism Right…Conservative – Expansion U.S. military power – Less Govt. Reg. of Econ. – Free-Market Econ. – Private Health Insurance – Pro-Life – Judicial Restraint Elites & Activists (Ideologues) : More Consistent Ideologies More informed Intensity of beliefs Dealignment Trend of more Americans moving to center on pol. spectrum

Add. Issues Death Penalty: Energy: Gun control Private property Religion and govt Assisted suicide

Who Votes What? Democrat Women Catholics, minority protestants, unaffiliated/no religion Blue collar workers Blacks (crime & affirmative action) Latinos West and Upper East coast Republican Men Mainline Protestants, Evangelicals White collar workers Blacks (social issues –esp. if they are major church goers) Southern region

Who Votes? Votes College educated Senior citizens Whites Women (more so than men at least) Married Government employment Doesn’t vote Uneducated Under 25 Minorities (this is changing!) Single

y-dec12/campaign_09-17.html y-dec12/campaign_09-17.html