* Alternative concepts and methodologies for the calculation of dropout in Israel Haim Portnoy Central Bureau of Statistics Twinning Activity B1 November 4-5, 2013

* Current dropout indicators produced by ICBS * Proposed alternative indicators

* The student dropout model used by the ICBS (event rates) is the basis for all official dropout statistics published by our organization. It is used at the Ministry of Education for decision- making, as part of the effort to monitor and prevent student dropout

* Still, stakeholders at the Ministry have suggested the need to develop alternative measures for different uses * We’d like to propose here two additional approaches: enrolment rates and cohort rates

* Enrolment rate – The number of children in educational settings supervised by the Ministry of Education and other governmental supervision – out of all children in applicable ages * Non-Enrolment rate – The number of children who are not found in educational settings supervised by the Ministry of Education and other governmental supervision – out of all children in applicable ages

* For a given age category, the non- enrolment rate should equal: * Those who were never enrolled in educational settings supervised by the state, plus * The cumulative number of children who dropped out

* ICBS publishes enrolment rates on the annual Statistical Abstract * For each age category: Number of students with Israeli citizenship (Ministry of Education + Ministry of Economy) ICBS Population estimates

AgeSex Total /12 - TOTAL Boys Girls STUDENTS IN GRADES 7-12 BY AGE, SEX AND POPULATION GROUP Rates per 1,000 in the appropriate group

* As opposed to the synchronic enrolment rates, and similarly to event rates, the cohort approach is diachronic: it happens over time * Therefore, it is measured across two or more points in time * In this approach, we calculate the rates of those who started a school level on a certain year, and (successfully) finished this level after N years

* For calculating cohort dropout rates, different points in time could be chosen (since the beginning of primary or secondary education, or rather a specific cohort by age or grade) * To ensure comparability, a leading example could be the ad-hoc Survey to Estimate Upper Secondary Education Completion Rates collected by OECD for 2011

Year used for new entrants2007 N : Theoretical duration of programmes 3 Successful completion at ISCED 3 level after N years with N the theoretical duration of the programmes (ISCED 3) ISCED 3 entrants TotalMF Number of new entrants112,66757,98154,686 Number of entrants who graduate at ISCED 3 98,01346,84751,166 Number of students who dropped out11,4738,8112,662 Number of students still in education at ISCED 3 level 3,1812, Completion rates87%81%94%

* The total number of years of schooling which a child of a certain age can expect to receive in the future * A high rate indicates greater probability to spend in education and higher overall retention within the system

Enrolment ratios in secondary education Age Expected years in secondary education for age 15

* Indicators to use * Populations to include * Beginning of primary vs. beginning of secondary education * Age cohort vs. grade cohort

* ICBS currently publishes event dropout rates and enrolment rates for a given school year * Cohort rates are reported to OECD. School expectancy rates are also suggested * To be agreed: pros and cons, which indicators to adopt, and with what purpose

Thank You!