Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Feed Outlook Drought Webinar for Swine Producers August 29, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use Area Planted(mil. acres) Yield(bu./acre) Production(mil. bu.)12,09213,09212,44712,35810,779 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6241,6731,7081,1281,021 Imports(mil. bu.) Total Supply(mil. bu.)13,72914,77414,18213,51111,875 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)5,1825,1254,7934,5504,075 Ethanol(mil. bu.)3,7094,5915,0215,0004,500 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3161,3701,4071,3901,350 Exports(mil. bu.)1,8491,9801,8351,5501,300 Total Use(mil. bu.)12,05613,06613,05512,49011,225 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1,6731,7081,1281, Season-Average Price($/bu.) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use Production(mil. metric tons) Imports(mil. metric tons) Total Supply(mil. metric tons) Domestic(mil. metric tons) Exports(mil. metric tons) Total Use(mil. metric tons) Average Price($/ton) My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use Production(thou. short tons)41,70739,25140,90036,000 Beg. Stocks(thou. short tons) Imports(thou. short tons) Total Supply(thou. short tons)42,10139,73241,45036,600 Domestic(thou. short tons)30,64030,30131,65029,300 Exports(thou. short tons)11,1609,0819,5007,000 Total Use(thou. short tons)41,80039,38241,15036,300 Ending Stocks(thou. short tons) Season-Average Price ($/short ton) Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Feed Pricing Source: USDA-AMS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Meal Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Prices

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 8/24/

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond  Supply/demand concerns  We got some rain, too little, too late  Biofuel growth and energy demand, RFS?  Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?  Drought is pulling supply down  But high prices are diminishing demand  General economic conditions  Continued worldwide economic recovery is a key for crop prices  US job recovery, European financial concerns, China?  2012/13: USDA:Corn $8.20; Soy $16.00 Futures (as of 8/24/12):Corn $7.49; Soy $15.87  2013/14: FuturesCorn $6.07; Soy $12.62  2014/15: FuturesCorn $5.55; Soy $12.15

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: