The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management Statistical Implications.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its Management. Report on the Work.
Advertisements

The views expressed in this Paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. An Update on the IMF-OECD Conference.
Public Sector Debt Statistics Online Centralized Database OECD Working Party on Financial Statistics October 24-27, 2011 – Paris Manik Shrestha Statistics.
Best practice for ensuring quality in international statistics - The Principal Global Indicators - Werner Bier, Per Nymand-Andersen European Central Bank.
Responding to the Financial Crisis: Recent Developments and New Statistical Initiatives ESDS Annual International Conference London, 30 November 2009 Nick.
1 Improving transparency in the insurance sector: progress made and outstanding challenges OECD-ASSAL Regional Expert Seminar Montevideo, September.
The External Wealth of Nations Mark II Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, Philip R. Lane IIIS, Trinity College.
The ECB's contribution to the OECD-IMF Conference on quarterly sector accounts Reimund Mink European Central Bank Joint Meeting of the OECD Working Parties.
Data Gathering and Financial Regulation Mark Allen CASE Research, Warsaw.
The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative - Way forward - Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics New York, 4 March 2014 Werner Bier Deputy Director-General.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management The Inter-Agency Group.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not necessarily be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management Regional.
IMF DATA DEVELOPMENTS NEW CONCEPTS, NEW TOOLS Gareth McGuinness International Monetary Fund, Statistics Department ESDS International Conference, November.
1 A Good Product Needs Good Communication to Succeed Ms. Wipada Soonthornsima IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) Work Session of the Communication of Statistics.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not necessarily be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management Why are.
Restricted Presentation at the 2008 World Congress on National Accounts and Economic Performance Measures for Nations 13 May 2008, Washington, DC 1 Central.
Bank of Finland Bulletin 2/2014: Financial stability Pentti Hakkarainen, Deputy Governor
UPDATE OF GUIDELINES FOR PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT Sudarshan Gooptu Sector Manager PREM Economic Policy and Debt, World Bank MDB Meetings, Washington DC May.
Data Requirements From Users on the International Investment Position Robert Heath Statistics Department, International Monetary Fund at the International.
Briefing on the work of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics - Envisaged Developments - Werner Bier Deputy Director General Statistics.
Caribbean Financial Statistics Project. Background and Rationale The process of integration within the region is increasingly deepening;  financial integration.
Government Finance Division IMF Statistics Department The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management Meeting on the Management.
Financial Soundness Indicators: Recent Developments and Plans Manik Shrestha IMF Statistics Department OECD Working Party on Financial Statistics Paris,
Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis: Challenges Ahead and Statistical Initiatives at the IMF Macroeconomic Statistics and the Current Crisis:
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management The Inter-Agency Group.
The Global Financial Crisis: What Are We Learning About Policy-Makers’ Data Needs? Tessa van der Willigen and Pedro Rodriguez Strategy, Policy, and Review.
Financial sector crisis in emerging Europe and international policy response Alexander Pivovarsky EBRD Office of the Chief Economist USAID Regional Competitiveness.
© 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license.
Shadow Banking— Measures for Monitoring and Mitigating? Dr. Laura E. Kodres International Monetary Fund November 22, 2013.
1 Short-term economic statistics A global response to the economic and financial crisis Workshop on Short-term economic indicators 8 October 2014, Hangzhou.
THE COMPILATION OF FLOW OF FUNDS STATISTICS IN INDONESIA Paris, October th 2011 Hendy Sulistiowaty Eko Ariantoro Contributed to the Discussion of.
Handbook on Securities Statistics Overview of a joint BIS-ECB-IMF initiative 0.
IMF-FSB Users Conference, Washington DC, 8-9 July 2009 Views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the BIS or its associated organisations.
Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Presented By: Ghulam Rabbani Assistant Director Financial Accounts Division, Accounts.
1 Economic and Social Council of the Bretton Woods Institutions Christopher Towe Monetary and Capital Markets Department April 14, 2008.
Data needs to assess the health of systemically important financial institutions Werner Bier Deputy Director-General Statistics IMF-FSB Users Conference.
Timely statistical information for monetary policy purposes
Impact of the Financial Crisis by Directorate General Statistics ECB Discussant remarks Ralph Kozlow, IMF Group of Experts on National Accounts Geneva,
Providing Decision Makers with International Macroeconomic Statistics that They Need Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA) ½.
1 Robert W. Edwards Director Statistics Department International Monetary Fund OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge, and Policy Istanbul, June 27-30,
1 Setting the stage International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators 14 – 16 December 2009 Scheveningen, The Netherlands.
IMF Economic Indicators: Principal Global Indicators (PGI)
The Euro Area Crisis: Origins, Prospects and Implications for the World Economy and Global Governance Domenico Lombardi UNLV, April 3, 2013.
Eurostat Financial accounts ESTP course - MIP Luxembourg 1-3 December 2015 Sheldon Warton-Woods Eurostat C-1.
Financial Sector Development: Building Market Foundations Through International Codes And Standards Sherman G. Boone, Assistant Director Office of International.
Some follow up work to the Data Gaps Initiative: Institutional Sector Accounts Side Event to the UNSC New York, 23 February 2011.
High level seminar on the implementation of the System of National Accounts 2008 in the GCC countries Muscat, Oman, 27 May 2010 United Nations Statistics.
UNECE meeting on National Accounts Geneva, Switzerland April 2010 Herman Smith UNSD Response to the economic and financial crisis Agenda item 10.
Briefing on the work of the Inter-agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics Future organisation of the data flow among national and international.
The current financial and economic crisis: Statistical initiatives of the E(S)CB Daniela Schackis European Central Bank – DG Statistics OECD Short-Term.
A Brief Introduction to the IMF
Reproductions of this material, or any parts of it, should refer to the IMF Statistics Department as the source. Real Sector Division IMF Statistics Department.
G-20 & Turkey’s Presidency in 2015 Turkey in the Troika of G-20, Preparing to Assume the Chair in 2015 AVİM – Center for Eurasian Studies 14 November 2013.
Macroprudential Policy Framework: An Overview Prepared for COMESA Monetary Institute 2 nd September 2015.
Bruno TISSOT Head of Statistics and Research Support, BIS
Lucie Laliberté Statistics Department International Monetary Fund
What does the G20 Data Gaps Initiative mean for European Statistics?
Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
Statistics for policy use
FINANCIAL STABILITY- NEW CHALLENGES FOR CENTRAL BANKS
How are BOP statistics used?
How are BOP statistics used?
G-20 data gaps initiative: institutional sector accounts
Future challenges for institutional sector accounts and BoP statistics
ESTP Course Balance of Payments – Introductory course Paris, May 2014 Quality issues.
Tessa van der Willigen and Pedro Rodriguez
Q2010 Helsinki May 4-6, 2010 Mohammed El Qorchi
Presentation transcript:

The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management Statistical Implications of the Ongoing Global Crisis Mohammed El Qorchi Division Chief, Statistics Department International Monetary Fund V Astana Economic Forum Hosted by Statistics Agency of Kazakhstan May 24, 2012

2 Background: The Ongoing Global Crisis The main manifestations of the global crisis which surfaced in 2008: The main manifestations of the global crisis which surfaced in 2008: Originated and concentrated mainly in industrialized, and a large number of emerging economies; Originated and concentrated mainly in industrialized, and a large number of emerging economies; Severe in terms of lost output and high unemployment as well as large build up of debt; Severe in terms of lost output and high unemployment as well as large build up of debt; Propagating worldwide at a high speed; Propagating worldwide at a high speed; Involving systemically important global financial institutions (G-SIFIs), with operations spreading across many markets worldwide, as well as shadow banks. Involving systemically important global financial institutions (G-SIFIs), with operations spreading across many markets worldwide, as well as shadow banks. Today, we still observe significant, downside risks, particularly in Europe, a battered international financial system, and an ailing recovery. Today, we still observe significant, downside risks, particularly in Europe, a battered international financial system, and an ailing recovery.

3 Data Dimensions The crisis: The crisis: Highlighted the critical importance of timely, consistent, and comparable statistics across countries as economies and markets become more integrated Highlighted the critical importance of timely, consistent, and comparable statistics across countries as economies and markets become more integrated Revealed additional data gaps relevant for proper financial stability analysis and policy decision making: Revealed additional data gaps relevant for proper financial stability analysis and policy decision making:  Build-up of risk in the financial sector  Need to identify degree and location of leverage or excessive risk taking in the system  Capture information on shadow banking system and growth of risk transfer instruments

4 Data Dimensions (cont’d)  Cross border financial linkages  International financial network connections have developed but information not captured  Rapid growth of systemically important financial institutions with global reach  Vulnerability of domestic economies to shocks  Data needed to monitor the exposure of economic agents within domestic economy to shocks  Financial and real sector linkages within economy Identified room for improvement in the communication of official statistics Identified room for improvement in the communication of official statistics

5 Data Dimensions (cont’d) Crisis not the result of a lack of proper economic and financial statistics but highlighted certain data gaps, particularly data for financial stability analysis Crisis not the result of a lack of proper economic and financial statistics but highlighted certain data gaps, particularly data for financial stability analysis Data enhancements (public good) crucial to ability to provide global perspectives on potential risks and financial stability concerns Data enhancements (public good) crucial to ability to provide global perspectives on potential risks and financial stability concerns Good data and good analyses underlie effective policy responses both at national and international levels Good data and good analyses underlie effective policy responses both at national and international levels Work on improving data coverage and addressing data gaps needs to be coordinated to be effective and efficient Work on improving data coverage and addressing data gaps needs to be coordinated to be effective and efficient

6 Data Limitations Detecting financial risks (Cerutti, Claessens, and McGuire) Detecting financial risks (Cerutti, Claessens, and McGuire) Data on counterpart location (country) available only in aggregate form, overlooking bank-level heterogeneity Data on counterpart location (country) available only in aggregate form, overlooking bank-level heterogeneity Bank balance sheet based analyses do not fully capture banks’ organizational structures and legal status, as well as geographical structure of bank operations Bank balance sheet based analyses do not fully capture banks’ organizational structures and legal status, as well as geographical structure of bank operations Existing data overestimate countries’ dependence on foreign credits in cases where at least part of funding sources is from borrower country Existing data overestimate countries’ dependence on foreign credits in cases where at least part of funding sources is from borrower country Detailed trends of cross-currency funding and roll-over not identified owing to lack of data on residual maturities and foreign exchange swap markets Detailed trends of cross-currency funding and roll-over not identified owing to lack of data on residual maturities and foreign exchange swap markets

Interconnectedness of financial sector The European banks draw wholesale funding from the US and lend it back to US residents The European banks draw wholesale funding from the US and lend it back to US residents Some large transactions in assets and liabilities of the European banks to the US net out, and are reflected in the financial account only on a net basis Some large transactions in assets and liabilities of the European banks to the US net out, and are reflected in the financial account only on a net basis (Derived from Hyun Song Shin, pp3-4) Figure 1, “Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium” by Hyun Song Shin, Paper prepared for the 2011 Mundell-Fleming Lecture of the Annual Research Conference (IMF) US Borrowers Wholesale funding market Shadow banking system border European Global Banks US Banking Sector US Households

The role of financial centers Figure 4, “Cross-Border Investment in Small International Financial Centers” (IMF Working Paper wp/10/38) by Philip R. Lane and Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti The Small Industry Finance Corporation (SIFCs) account for a non-negligible share of external assets and liabilities held by key players in the financial market. The Small Industry Finance Corporation (SIFCs) account for a non-negligible share of external assets and liabilities held by key players in the financial market. The SIFC could work as a channel of financial transaction. The SIFC could work as a channel of financial transaction. Data (e.g. IIP) are not always available from these financial centers. Data (e.g. IIP) are not always available from these financial centers. 8

Data Limitations (cont’d) Emerging markets Emerging markets Shift in global financial power to “Safe” assets (gov. bonds of advanced countries) may no longer be that safe Shift in global financial power to “Safe” assets (gov. bonds of advanced countries) may no longer be that safe To monitor associated risks, need enhancements to data on government debt and foreign reserve allocations To monitor associated risks, need enhancements to data on government debt and foreign reserve allocations Share of reserves for which currency composition is allocated Share of reserves for which currency composition is allocated 9 IMF COFER Database

10 A Cluster Analysis of Global Trade and Financial Architecture

International Collaboration IAG: BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF (chair), OECD, UN, World Bank FSB IMF In response, the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative is well underway to address data gaps and reinforce the national and global statistical systems In response, the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative is well underway to address data gaps and reinforce the national and global statistical systems 20 recommendations which call for improvements to bank-level and aggregate statistics 20 recommendations which call for improvements to bank-level and aggregate statistics The initiative involves a great deal of collaboration among international institutions: The initiative involves a great deal of collaboration among international institutions: Work is coordinated by the Inter- Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (IAG) Reporting to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors is done by the IMF and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) 11

12 Brief Chronology Establishment of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics, IAG (2008) Establishment of the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics, IAG (2008) BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF (Chair), OECD, UN, WB BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF (Chair), OECD, UN, WB Coordinate work to explore data gaps and strengthen data collection Coordinate work to explore data gaps and strengthen data collection Established Principal Global Indicators (PGI) Website: Established Principal Global Indicators (PGI) Website: G-20 request to the IMF and the FSB to explore gaps and provide proposals to address them to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. G-20 request to the IMF and the FSB to explore gaps and provide proposals to address them to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. Reports provided in November 2009, June 2010, and June Reports provided in November 2009, June 2010, and June Data gaps identified and work plans and timetables endorsed by the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. Data gaps identified and work plans and timetables endorsed by the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. Work is progressing and next progress report to the G-20 has been requested by September Work is progressing and next progress report to the G-20 has been requested by September 2012.

Brief Chronology (con’t) IMFC (IMF Advisory Body) welcomed and endorsed the work of the IMF and FSB to provide better indicators of systemic risks and address data gaps (April 2009, October 2010, and September 2011) IMFC (IMF Advisory Body) welcomed and endorsed the work of the IMF and FSB to provide better indicators of systemic risks and address data gaps (April 2009, October 2010, and September 2011) IMF Executive Board approved enhancements to the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), including the establishment of a higher tier, the SDDS Plus. IMF Executive Board approved enhancements to the IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), including the establishment of a higher tier, the SDDS Plus. The Global Issues Group (GIG) of the World Economic Forum, comprising leaders of the world’s multilateral and regional institutions, supports the efforts underway as part of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative to create a global financial reporting system that will comprehensively monitor global financial flows and stocks. The Global Issues Group (GIG) of the World Economic Forum, comprising leaders of the world’s multilateral and regional institutions, supports the efforts underway as part of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative to create a global financial reporting system that will comprehensively monitor global financial flows and stocks. 13

Build-up of Risk in the Financial Sector Cross-border Financial Linkages Vulnerability of Domestic Economies to Shocks Improving Communication of Official Statistics # 2 Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) #5 Credit Default Swaps #7 Securities # 10, #11, #12 Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, International Banking Statistics, International Investment Positions #15 Institutional Sector Accounts # 17 Government Finance Statistics # 18 Public Sector Debt #19 Real Estate Prices #20 Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) # 3 Tail Risk in the Financial System #4 Aggregate Leverage and Maturity Mismatches; #6 Structured Products #8 and # 9 Global Network Connections and Systemically Important Global Institutions # 13 and #14 Financial and Nonfinancial Corporations’ Cross Border Exposures #16 Distributional Information There Exist Conceptual/ Statistical Frameworks and Ongoing Collection Conceptual Statistical Framework Needs Further Development Overview of the 20 recommendations 10

Consultation Process with the G-20 IMF/FSB G-20 Senior Officials Conferences: IMF/FSB G-20 Senior Officials Conferences: July 2009 and March 2011, Washington, D.C., USA July 2009 and March 2011, Washington, D.C., USA April 2010, and June 2012 (planned) Basel, Switzerland April 2010, and June 2012 (planned) Basel, Switzerland IMF staff conducted bilateral consultations with G-20 economies (2010/2011) IMF staff conducted bilateral consultations with G-20 economies (2010/2011) Four regional conferences: Four regional conferences: Mexico City, Mexico (March 2012); Mexico City, Mexico (March 2012); Ankara, Turkey (April 2012); Ankara, Turkey (April 2012); Paris, France (April 2012); and Paris, France (April 2012); and China (May 2012). China (May 2012). 15

Communication Process UNSC Side Events: UNSC Side Events: ult.html ult.html ult.html ult.html IMF Statistics Department Seminars at IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings (2010 and 2011) IMF Statistics Department Seminars at IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings (2010 and 2011) Financial Stability — the Data Challenge: Financial Stability — the Data Challenge: Casting Light on Shadow Banking: Data Needs for Financial Stability: Casting Light on Shadow Banking: Data Needs for Financial Stability:

Communication Process (con’t) Principal Global Indicators  A product of the Inter-Agency Group (IAG)  Brings together data for G-20 economies and five non G-20 economies members of the FSB  One-stop shop 

Emerging Views from the Consultations Broad agreement on the identified data gaps that need to be addressed Broad agreement on the identified data gaps that need to be addressed Recognition that enhancements to existing datasets could address certain gaps in the near future Recognition that enhancements to existing datasets could address certain gaps in the near future Other gaps would take longer and require additional resources Other gaps would take longer and require additional resources The inter-agency coordination is very much welcome. IAG and PGI seen as major steps forward, but it needs to be intensified, including by: The inter-agency coordination is very much welcome. IAG and PGI seen as major steps forward, but it needs to be intensified, including by: Reducing reporting burden to countries Reducing reporting burden to countries Developing common templates to facilitate common sourcing of data Developing common templates to facilitate common sourcing of data Improving data sharing across international institutions Improving data sharing across international institutions 18

Concluding Remarks 19  Considerable progress is being made in addressing data gaps, with individual IAG agencies allocated to lead specific recommendations and G-20 countries implementing enhancements  Already the outcomes of these efforts are yielding results, with improvements in available data on credit default swaps, securities, CPIS, IIP, sectoral accounts, government finance statistics, public debt, real estate prices, and in the communication of statistics (PGI)  Data Dissemination Standards (GDDS, SDDS, and SDDS Plus) have been strengthened

Concluding Remarks (con’t)  But challenges remain ahead, including the need to sustain:  Implementation of plans and timetables  Further progress in the development of new data frameworks  Adequate resources for statistical work  Coordination and collaboration—not only among IAG agencies, but also with and within national statistical agencies 20

Paper References 21  FSB/IMF reports on the G-20 data Gaps Initiative:  Financial Stability Board and International Monetary Fund (2009), The Financial Crisis and Information Gaps, Report to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors,  Two progress reports have been prepared and submitted to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors; in November 2010 and June 2011 ( and respectively)  Cerutti, Claessens, and McGuire:  Hyun:  Lane and Milesi-Ferretti: