RSS / SUF 22 nd November 2013 The Census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales – Public consultation Alistair Calder & Andy Teague Beyond 2011

The Beyond 2011 Programme Census – every 10 years for over 200 years Review a normal part of the census cycle but the need greater than ever Rapidly changing society Evolving user requirements Technological advances Improved data sources DRIVERS : Cost, efficiency, opportunity, burden CRITERIA : Cost V social and economic benefit of outputs, privacy, public acceptability, risk etc Government proposes to Parliament (with NS advice) Beyond 2011 findings will be published in 2014

Government Spending 2010 Cost of the 2011 Census – £50m / year Source: guardian.co.uk.

Beyond 2011 : Full range of approaches assessed Aggregate analysis Full (100%) linkage Partial (1%?) linkage Address register + Survey Administrative data options Full Census (long form to everyone) Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample) Short Form + Annual Survey (US model) Census options Survey option(s)

Beyond 2011 : Two potential approaches A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys

The two approaches What they are

Beyond 2011 : An online census – what it is A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online A compulsory questionnaire for every household (and communal) Majority of responses online (and mix of ways to complete) 1% survey to adjust for those who don’t respond Administrative data to check the quality Population estimates produced annually using births, deaths, etc Questions and topics similar to 2011 Census – but will consult later

Beyond 2011 : Administrative data and surveys – what it is A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys Re-use of admin sources to produce annual population estimates Anonymous data from eg NHS, DWP, HMRC, DfE, HESA Annual compulsory 1% survey to adjust for error in the admin sources Annual compulsory 4% survey to collect characteristics information Majority of responses online (and mix of ways to complete) Questions and topics similar to 2011 Census – but will consult later NHS Patient Register DWP/HMRC Customer Information System Electoral roll (> 17 yrs) School Census (5-15 yrs) Higher Education Statistics Agency data (Students) Birth and Death registrations NO PERSONAL DATA HELD – ALL NAMES & ADDRESSES AND DATES OF BIRTH ANONYMISED

Beyond 2011 : An online census – what you get A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online Huge richness of data Data for very small areas and very small populations Detailed cross tabulations – nearly 6 billion cells Continuity – tradition A benchmark – a definitive snapshot of the nation - certainty Data that is (or might be) out of date most of the time An illusion of knowledge (some of the time) but the best we’ve got

Administrative data and survey approach population estimates A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys Beyond 2011 : The admin data approach – what you get

Administrative data and survey option NHS patient register DWP/HMRC Customer information system 1% coverage survey HESA data (students) population estimates

(Current) best-performing model Rules: 1.Must be on both PR and CIS (and HESA 1 ) 2.IF ON HESA: assign a weight of 1.0 to HESA term-time address 3.IF NOT, and when LA is different for each source, then assign a weight 0.5 to each LA 4.Where LA is the same, assign a weight HESA rule applies to students only

SPD 5 Admin data method lower than 2011 Census Admin data method higher than 2011 Census

Population Pyramids using admin data SPD 5

0-4

SPD

Using only PR for 0-4 year olds SPD

SPD

SPD

SPD

SPD 5 65+

Output Areas Lower SOAs 1,000+ Middle SOAs 5,000+ Local Authorities c 350 c 7,200 c 35,000 c 180,000

Percentage difference between administrative data approach and Census estimates – Output Area level 0% 88% of OAs within +/-10% Ave 30 people Note that central bar covers double the range of the other bars

Annual population estimates – for all geographic levels – down to output areas Annual estimates age & sex – for all levels down to LSOA OA level currently unproven but all the signs are that this will be possible Research is ongoing Administrative data and survey approach What you get – population estimates

Administrative data and survey option NHS patient register DWP/HMRC Customer information system 1% coverage survey HESA data (students) population estimates 4% characteristics survey characteristics

. Administrative data and survey approach characteristics A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys Beyond 2011 : The admin data & survey approach – what you get

How survey works Most characteristics not currently covered by an administrative source (but lots of unproven potential) Need compulsory 4% survey Reliable statistics could be produced for characteristics representing: 800 or more people using 1 year’s data (4%) 230 or more people using 3 years’ data (12%) 130 or more people using 5 years’ data (20%) Statistics for smaller populations would be produced but lower accuracy (CI > 40%)

0.9% nationally

4.4% nationally

White British White Irish White Gypsy/Irish traveller Other White White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian African Caribbean Other Black Arab Other ethnic group SmallestLargest 2011 Census LA level populations (71 Major urban) for Ethnicity

SmallestLargest White British White Irish White Gypsy/Irish traveller Other White White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian African Caribbean Other Black Arab Other ethnic group Simulated survey LA level population estimates (71 Major Urban) for Ethnicity One year sample

SmallestLargest White British White Irish White Gypsy/Irish traveller Other White White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian African Caribbean Other Black Arab Other ethnic group Three year sample Simulated survey LA level population estimates (71 Major Urban) for Ethnicity

SmallestLargest White British White Irish White Gypsy/Irish traveller Other White White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian African Caribbean Other Black Arab Other ethnic group Five year sample Simulated survey LA level population estimates (71 Major Urban) for Ethnicity

SmallestLargest White British White Irish White Gypsy/Irish traveller Other White White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian African Caribbean Other Black Arab Other ethnic group 2011 Census LA level populations (55 Most rural) for Ethnicity

SmallestLargest White British White Irish White Gypsy/Irish traveller Other White White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian African Caribbean Other Black Arab Other ethnic group Simulated survey LA level population estimates (55 Most rural) for Ethnicity One year sample

SmallestLargest White British White Irish White Gypsy/Irish traveller Other White White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian African Caribbean Other Black Arab Other ethnic group Three year sample Simulated survey LA level population estimates (55 Most rural) for Ethnicity

SmallestLargest White British White Irish White Gypsy/Irish traveller Other White White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian African Caribbean Other Black Arab Other ethnic group Five year sample Simulated survey LA level population estimates (55 Most rural) for Ethnicity

Administrative data and survey approach spotting change over time

Estimated annual population Year HARINGEY Country of Birth: Other EU Assuming constant rate of change - by 2003 a significant change in the ‘Other EU Country of Birth Category would be identified Administrative data and survey approach spotting change over time ?

Estimated annual household population Year Assuming constant rate of change - by 2006 a significant change in the ‘Private rented from landlord or letting agency’ Tenure Category would be identified Administrative data and survey approach spotting change over time WELLINGBOROUGH Tenure: Private rented from landlord or letting agency ?

Box F: Statistics possible using survey data Area typeAverage number of residents 1 year’s data (800 threshold) 3 years’ data (230 threshold) 5 years’ data (130 threshold) LA160,000Detailed cross- tabulations (c 200 cells) Detailed cross- tabulations (c 500 cells) Very detailed cross-tabulations (c 1000 cells) MSOA7,800Some single variable statistics (c 10 cells) Very simple cross-tabulations (c 30 cells) Simple cross- tabulations (c 50 cells) LSOA1,600Not availableSome single variable statistics (c 5 cells) Some single variable statistics (c 10 cells) OA300Not available Administrative data and survey approach What you get - characteristics

Box G: Statistics available for high priority topics Level of geography, and years of survey data needed TopicLAMSOALSOAOA Ethnicity1 for large groups 3 for most others 5 for very small groups 3 and 55Not available Economic activity 135Not available Marital status11 for large categories 3 for others 3 for large categories 5 for others Not available Tenure133 for large categories 5 for others Not available Household composition 11 for large household types 3 for others 5Not available Accommodation type 135Not available Administrative data and survey approach What you get - characteristics

Admin data - the potential ?? Key advantage – broad coverage sources allow statistics at lowest geographies ? – every year ? Household composition – various Income – HMRC / DWP Economic status – HMRC / DWP Health status (index?) – HSCIC / NHS Wales Qualifications– Census / DfE / BIS Industry of employer – HMRC Carers – HMRC / DWP (limited) Ethnicity – NHS (quality?) – HMRC / DWP (limited) – School Censuses – HESA (Full list in paper M12)

Comparison of Percentage of Households of Each Size for selected LAs Percentage of Households Household Size Birmingham Boston Bournemouth Brent Cambridge Camden Cardiff Ceredigion Cheshire East Chesterfield Coventry East Devon Eastbourne Forest Heath Herefordshire, County of Hillingdon Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Leicester Manchester Newcastle upon Tyne Newham Northumberland Oxford Powys Reading Richmondshire Rotherham Stratford-on-Avon Tonbridge and Malling Waltham Forest Warwick Waveney Westminster Wirral Administrative Data Method Census

2011 Census ethnicity English School Census ethnicity White British Irish Irish Traveller/ Gypsy/Romany Indian Bangladeshi Pakistani White and Asian Other Asian Chinese African White and Black African Caribbean White and Black Caribbean Other White Other Black Other Mixed Other Ethnicity Missing Total (denominator) White British95%0.50% 2%0.50% 2%5,048,672 Irish41%47%1%0.50% 1%0.50% 5%0.50%3%0.50%2%22,609 Irish Traveller/ Gypsy/Roman y 35%2%54%0.50% 6%0.50% 1%2%9,150 Indian0.50% 89%0.50%1% 5%0.50% 1%0.50%2%169,609 Bangladeshi0.50% 92%1%0.50%2%0.50% 4%99,905 Pakistani0.50% 1%0.50%86%1%4%0.50% 1%3%4%252,189 White and Asian 11%0.50% 1%0.50%2%54%3%0.50% 3%0.50%15%3%4%82,152 Other Asian1%0.50% 12%0.50%2% 58%1%0.50% 4%17%2%84,028 Chinese2%0.50% 1%2%83%0.50% 7%2% 27,577 African1%0.50% 1%0.50%83%1% 0.50%1%7%2%1%3%190,489 White and Black African 6%0.50% 8%55%1%3% 14%2%4%38,611 Caribbean1%0.50% 3%0.50%77%3%0.50%9%3%1%4%71,256 White and Black Caribbean 12%0.50% 2%3%62%1%2%12%1%4%108,920 Other White8%0.50%1%0.50% 1%0.50% 75%0.50%6%5%3%169,626 Other Black1%0.50% 34%1%30%2%0.50%20%6%1%4%27,625 Other Mixed10%0.50% 1%0.50%1%5%3%1%2%3%2%8%5%4%47%5% 23,763 Other Ethnicity 5%0.50% 2%12%0.50%2%1%0.50% 10%2%10%50%4%66,760 Missing69%0.50% 2%1%3%1%2%0.50%4%0.50%2%1%5%1%2% 3%222,193 Census and England School Census Ethnicity

Data on Income High priority topic for users but not currently asked on census Obvious example of potential of administrative data to provide characteristics data Admin sources – PAYE, Self-Assessment, benefits Options for production of income estimates under admin data + survey approach  Directly or modelling Significant further research needed to better understand these and other potential data sources

The two approaches Advantages and disadvantages

Beyond 2011 : Advantages and disadvantages A census once a decade -like that conducted in 2011, but primarily online STRENGTHS A rich set of statistics for a range of geographies, a wide range of topics, small populations, detailed cross tabulations Proven ability to deliver - proven and tested High degree of continuity A single, high quality snapshot of the nation RISKS Increasingly difficult to get high response Other methods of completion required for some households Considered an invasion of privacy by some OPPORTUNITIES Online completion will be cheaper and more efficient WEAKNESSES Only every 10 years (except for LA population estimates) – reduces usefulness Costs more than the admin data option - £625m per decade - £1.10 per person per year Build-up and run-down challenging A burden on all households

Beyond 2011 : Advantages and disadvantages A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys STRENGTHS Continually updated – statistics on an annual basis Changes and trends identified more quickly Less expensive - £460m a decade – 80p per person per year Reduced burden on households RISKS New and untested methods – other countries have taken decades Some discontinuities Requires access to admin data Survey response will be challenging here too Requires public acceptance of use of admin data OPPORTUNITIES Use of admin data can be extended over time Potential to be more flexible in questions New opportunities for historic research (in 2121) WEAKNESSES Will never produce the detail provided by the census Data combined for several years – makes date to which it refers more complex Loss of a single historical record (options to store more – but not yet developed) Requires new legislation

Progress & next steps

Public consultation 23 rd September – 13 th December responses to date - initially lots of individuals – many group & organisation responses now appearing Progress – next steps

Demographics User Group Media Launch Event London consultation launch event Manchester consultation launch event Census Users Research Conference Commercial users benefits meeting Inter Departmental Strategy Group (IDSG) Cardiff consultation launch event Members of Welsh Assembly briefing Academy of Social Sciences (approx 20 CEOs and Chief Officers) Demographics Use Group annual conference Statistics Suppliers and Users Group (StatSUG) CLIP (Population Stats Group) User Advisory Group (Genealogy) run by The National Archive Royal Geographic Society: Future of small area population statistics Market Research Society & Census Geographics User Group (commercial users) DWP analysts & statisticians Meeting of London Chief Executives (Steering Group meeting) Social Research Association (Beyond 2011 event for social researchers) UK Data Forum Health/Public Health England/HSCIC video meeting arranged by Chris Gibbons Pre British Academy Meeting with (Ian Diamond, Phil Rees, Mike Murphy, Colin Crouch, Heather Joshi etc) Equality & Diversity Forum (approx 20 equality & diversity representatives) London consultation event Academy of Social Sciences (again) House of Commons (Portcullis House) International Longevity Centre UK British Academy (again) Manchester consultation event Privacy Groups London Treasurers LA benefits meeting Equality (EIA) meeting Events

Public consultation 23 rd September – 13 th December responses to date - initially lots of individuals – many group & organisation responses now appearing Independent methodological review Led by Chris Skinner (LSE), Mike Murphy (LSE), John Hollis (ex-GLA) Initial review published November Outlined 4 key “essential work” recommendations Welcomed, published and we will respond shortly Recommendation to Government By the National Statistician / UK Statistics Authority To Government in first half 2014 Thereafter ? - the consultation matters! Research continues Progress – next steps

Think about an alternative reality where we had been producing regular statistics about change in populations and change in relationships for 200 years – Health, Employment, Income by Ethnicity, Sexual Orientation, Disability, Age – and distribution of Ethnicity, Disability etc Can you conceive of researchers saying "let's stop doing these regular data and get (only) a more detailed10 yearly snapshot"? Possibly - but a very hard decision It's difficult to move away from what you have

Responses No decision has been made – we are open to debate and consultation responses are critical Please respond Single and group as you see fit Doesn’t need to be a single vote Comments, alternatives, risks (and any ideas on mitigation) welcome Happy to discuss -