Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts C-Change in GEES Impacts on Coastal Environments Session 5 Session 5: Threats and Future Coasts

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Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Session Outline Key issues facing coastal environments Developed Coasts Underdeveloped Coasts Coral Reefs Case Study Impacts on other coastal environments: Examples: Surge Tides Tropical Cyclones Source: kla4067 (flickr.com)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts “The real conflict of the beach is not between sea and shore, for theirs is only a lover’s quarrel, but between man and nature. On the beach, nature has achieved a dynamic equilibrium that is alien to man and his static sense of equilibrium” Soucie, 1973, pp.56

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Key issues facing coastal environments in the future? Sea-level rise Saltwater intrusion in freshwater Coastal flooding Accelerated coastal erosion Storms, hurricanes, storm surges Pollution Expansion of human populations Preservation of resources (mangroves, coral reefs) Ocean warming (affects nearshore environments e.g. coral reefs) Photos: simminch (above) and CybersamX (below) (flickr.com)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Protection of economic assets of greatest importance Subject to Cost-Benefit Analysis Consider: Lifespan of the defence, The magnitude of events it is designed for The predicted frequency of events The value (and future value) of what it is protecting Developed Coasts Gold Coast, Australia: at risk of flooding from sea-level rise Photo: Michael Dawes (flickr.com)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Coastal Cities The world’s largest coastal cities – vulnerable to rising to sea levels

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Impacts on Socio-Economic Activity Matrix of impacts and activities – the value of activities and the degree to which they are threatened are key determinants of coastal management strategies Table 6.4. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK,

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Management requires a morphological understanding of coastal systems (processes, feedbacks, response to change & evolution) at different temporal and spatial scales. Emphasis on sustaining natural and aesthetic coastal resources Coastal protection is an ecosystem service (e.g. sand dunes, salt marsh, mangroves) Undeveloped Coasts Source: TooFarNorth (flickr.com)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Image: Florida Natural History Museum Coral Reefs The global distribution of coral reefs: biologically and ecologically important ecosystems that are vulnerable to future sea-level rise and ocean warming Source: NASA

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Low-lying coral atolls Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribati at risk from future sea- level rise BUT can reef growth keep pace?

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Warmer SSTs (loss of zooxanthellae) Influence of El Nino (link to SSTs) Frequency of El Nino events may be crucial (recovery periods) Mass bleaching events – ocean warming often linked to El Nino event Images: NOAA Coral Bleaching

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Maximum monthly mean sea surface temperature for 1998, 2002 and 2005, and locations of reported coral bleaching (data source, NOAA Coral Reef Watch (coralreefwatch.noaa.gov) and Reefbase ( Source IPCC (2007) NOAA

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Can coral reefs adapt to changing ocean temperatures? Assumptions and thresholds within models More research needed into the development of genetic diversity Timescales: evolutionary capacity vs. SST increase Evidence that some corals can adapt to changing insolation Key Reference: Hughes, T.P. et al (2003) ‘Climate Change, Human Impacts and the Resilience of Coral Reefs’ Science 301(5635): Photo: Nataraj Metz (flickr.com)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts What about the impacts on other coastal environments? Beaches Rocky shorelines & cliffs Deltas Estuaries & lagoons Mangroves Salt marshes Activity: Divide into 6 groups and research impacts of sea-level change on other coastal environments

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Surge Tides Evidence suggests that the high water level of Thames surge tides has increased since 1850 Trend indicates that Thames Barrier has become insufficient to protect against 1 in 100 year surge events – and may become obsolete The Thames Barrier was built in the 1980s to withstand protect London against flooding of 1 in 100 year magnitude. Sea level rise may make it obsolete by 2070 Photo: MarkAllanson (flickr.com)

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts New Orleans - Hurricane Katrina - Sept 2005 > 1800 people died $50 billion in damage Category 3 at landfall Tropical Cyclones SST of >26.5°C needed for formation Raising SST increases potential for tropical cyclone formation However uncertainty over impacts on wind shear Likely to increase intensity of tropical storms, but uncertain affect on the frequency

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts Session Summary Threats to future coasts are a function of environmental processes (e.g. SST rise, coral bleaching, tropical cyclone formation) and human activity (e.g. coastal development, socio- economic activity) Threats to natural coastal defences and ecosystems Acceleration of change, due to human influence, threatens the ability of natural systems to adapt to change Uncertainty is perhaps one of the biggest threats

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts References Hughes, T.P. et al (2003) ‘Climate Change, Human Impacts and the Resilience of Coral Reefs’ Science 301(5635): Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof and Co-authors (2007) ‘Technical Summary. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.’ Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts This resource was created by the University of Keele and released as an open educational resource through the 'C-change in GEES' project exploring the open licensing of climate change and sustainability resources in the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences. The C-change in GEES project was funded by HEFCE as part of the JISC/HE Academy UKOER programme and coordinated by the GEES Subject Centre. This resource is licensed under the terms of the Attribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales license ( However the resource, where specified below, contains other 3rd party materials under their own licenses. The licenses and attributions are outlined below: 1.The name of Keele University and its logos are unregistered trade marks of the University. The University reserves all rights to these items beyond their inclusion in these CC resources. 2.The JISC logo, the C-change logo and the logo of the Higher Education Academy Subject Centre for the Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences are licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution -non-commercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 UK England & Wales license. All reproductions must comply with the terms of that license

Dr Katie Szkornik, Keele University, C-Change in GEES: Changing Coastal Environments – Threats and Future Coasts AuthorDr Katie Szkornik Stephen Whitfield Institute – OwnerKeele University, School of Physical and Geographical Sciences TitleThreats and Future Coasts Powerpoint Presentation Date CreatedDecember 2009 DescriptionThreats and Future Coasts - Powerpoint Presentation – Part Five of Changing Coastal Environments Educational Level3 Keywords (Primary keywords – UKOER & GEESOER) UKOER, GEESOER, coastal defences, uncertainty, coral Creative Commons LicenseAttribution-Non-Commercial-Share Alike 2.0 UK: England & Wales Item Metadata