Challenges in Compiling a National House Price Index for Ireland Niall O’Hanlon UNECE May 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Challenges in Compiling a National House Price Index for Ireland Niall O’Hanlon UNECE May 2010

Preface House Price Index currently under development List of challenges not exhaustive Focus on those challenges encountered during initial phase of development UNECE May 2010

Monthly Data Source Requirement designed and collected by a government ministry from mortgage lenders Other potential data deemed unsuitable Mortgage approvals (timely) and drawdowns Rich data source UNECE May 2010

Some drawbacks No micro location detail  no national system of postcodes in Ireland Collaborating with data owner  data pre-validated  no bilateral communication with data generators (lenders) UNECE May 2010

Data quality issues Overall quality disappointing Not homogeneous  inconsistent over time but improving  varies between lenders  differs between variables UNECE May 2010

Percentage of error records by type – all lenders

UNECE May 2010 Percentage of error records by type – lender A

UNECE May 2010 Percentage of error records by type – lender B

Data quality issues (2) Exclude records/variables/lenders Different model specifications Imputation of missing values Bilateral discussion and reporting arrangements necessary UNECE May 2010

Collapse in Irish Housing Market 80% fall in 3 years (value and volume)  fine stratification approach unfeasible decline not uniform between lenders change in market composition  6 of 11 lenders now account for 95% of new business target our efforts? UNECE May 2010

Conclusion Index development is progressing Data should not be assumed to be of homogeneous quality Flexibility is required Index design must cope with market collapse UNECE May 2010