French new census : method and utilization IPUMS Workshop 9 june Paris

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Plan  Methodology overview  The first new census surveys 2004 and 2005  Methodology for estimation  How to use the data ?  Some questions due to rolling surveys :  Age structure  Flow data  Migration  Economic data

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Methodology overview

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 France numbers almost communes under inhabitants (almost 30 millions inhabitants). These communes have been spread into 5 groups WHEN ? WHO ? HOW ? HOW MUCH ? Each year, in january and february One group enumerated each year, More than communes Survey on every inhabitant of the communes of the group. In 2004, every inhabitant in the communes of first group, In 2005, every inhabitant in the communes of second group, etc. Over 5 years, every inhabitant of the communes under inhabitants is enumerated Communes under inhab.

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Communes under inhab. › Five groups : –Regional representativity (population and dwellings) › Each year : full enumeration in the communes of the group › Including institutions

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 France numbers almost 900 communes over inhabitants : near 30 millions inhabitants WHEN ? WHO ? HOW ? HOW MUCH ? Every commune every year Survey on a 8 % of the dwellings Sample each year Over 5 years, 40 % of the population Is surveyed Communes over inhab. Each year, in january and february

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Large communes (> inhab.) › Dispatching buildings in 5 balanced groups from the inventory of located buildings (RIL) › Each year, sampling addresses in the year-group to obtain 8 % of the whole commune’s dwellings › Every dwelling of the sampled buildings is enumerated › 40 % enumerated in 5 years › Special stratum for large addresses and new ones : fully enumerated

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Methodology for estimation

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Population estimates : communes > › Every year Y : pop. estimate for Y-2 › 8% sample every year Y › Mobile sum of data collected during 5 latest years (Y-4 Y) › Weighted according to the average number of dwellings ~ number of dwellings Y-2

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Population estimates : communes < › Every year Y : population estimates for Y-2 : –using extrapolation based on local tax file (evolution of the number of dwellings) : for communes enumerated in Y-4 and Y-3 –census data for communes enumerated in Y-2 –using linear interpolation for communes enumerated in Y-1 and Y › Data may be weighted according to the Y-2 estimate

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 How to estimate population of communes < inhab. in Y-2 ? Y-5Y-4Y-3Y-2Y-1Y I II III IV V

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Use of the data

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 The annual survey › Use for results at a national and regional level : –Example : results of the 2004 survey › Use to calibrate cumulated data : –The annual survey gives a dated information vs period information for cumulated data

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Use of the cumulated data › Detailed results at any geographical level › Communes over inh. : –Mobile average Y-2 › Communes under inh. : –Enumerated one time during Y-4 Y period –Two weights : ‐ Weight according to the year of their enumeration ‐ Weight according to their population estimate for Y-2

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 Every year (after 2008) : › Official population for every commune and administrative district › Detailed statistical results : –At every geographical level (micro data file for tabulation) –Combining data collected during the 5 last years –Relevant for the médium year (Y-2) › Overall estimations at national and regional level : based on data collected the last year

IPUMS Workshop – 9 june 2006 For users (after 2008) : › This is in discussion : › An annual data base at aggregate level (national and regional) from the last annual survey › Annual data bases with cumulated data on five years : –one with data detailed at geographic level, but not detailed for other classifications (occupatio, industry, country of birth or citizenship), –One with data at aggregate geographic level, but more detailed for other classifications.