UNECE Workshop on statistics in international migration Tbilisi Olga Chudinovskikh MSU / HSE Administrative sources of statistics on migration

What kind of statistics are needed to describe and analyze international migration in a country? We need data on direction of migration: to or from the country - immigration or emigration duration of residence or absence: temporary or permanent, long- or short-term purpose of migration: labour, educational, family, forced …. 2 Migration flows - the number of movements that have occurred within a time interval (or number of people that took part in these movements) and Migrant stocks - number of people with migration characteristics (migrants and their descendants) residing in the country at a particular moment in time As a rule (with a few exceptions) data must show:

Statistics on migration come from different sources :  Population censuses  Sample surveys of households The main function of both sources - to collect information for statistical purposes. Both measure migrants stocks rather than flows and are conducted with a certain time interval Various systems of data collection where information about people is collected for administrative purposes, thus  statistics are a by-product of administrative functions, their costs are relatively low, information is collected continuously and based on documents, in most cases with rare exceptions information is available both on stocks and flows of migrants 3

4 Information on registration of arrival in a place of residence (stay), Information on issued residence permits, work permits, admissions of international students, provided asylum etc. Flows and stocks Entries – nationals by country of previous stay, foreigners – by citizenship Data collected at the borders: passport control and migration cards Exits by country of destination for nationals and by citizenship for foreigners Registers of population, Systems of population registration at the place of residence Registers of foreigners and Special systems processing applications and decisions on selected categories of migrants: issuance of various permits/documents (work, education, asylum), + citizenship acquisition Main types of administrative sources of migration statistics and the subject of measurement Visa statistics Entry visas. Flows Exit visas/permits (rare practice), flows Out-migration In-migration Information on de- registration from the place of residence and place of stay. Information on pre-departure contracts of migrant workers and on students enrolled to foreign universities Mainly flows, in some cases stocks Consular registration Nationals registered at consulates, Stocks and flows

Population registers Can be a source of data on internal and international movements based on the records of changes of residence within a country or international arrivals and departures, on migration of nationals and foreigners PIN allows to link information between relatives and produce statistics on several generations of migrants (migrants and their descendants) Basic conditions: one place of residence (main) and compulsory registration 5 Advantages : supposed to cover migration (internal and international) of the total resident population (foreign and national), Weaknesses: Only declared cases are registered Emigration is often not declared and statistics on emigration are less reliable than on immigration (But: if an incentive is introduced, then declaration of migration and registration improves. Case of Lithuania) “The population register is a mechanism for the continuous recording of selected information pertaining to each member of the resident population of a country or area, making it possible to determine up-to-date information about the size and characteristics of the population at selected points in time” (UN) Population size – an important factor of resources allocation, regional planning and political life (voters and places in parliament)

Register based statistics. Norway experience: Immigrants and population with foreign background ( up to grandparents’ origin ) Population by immigrant category and country background. Born in Norway to Norwegian- born parents Immigrants Norwegian- born to immigrant parents Foreign- born with one Norwegian- born parent Norwegian- born with one foreign- born parent Foreign- born to Norwegian- born parents Total Poland Sweden Lithuania Somalia Germany Iraq Denmark Pakistan Philippines Russia Iran Thailand Eritrea United Kingdom Vietnam Source: Statistics Norway

The administrative systems with a function of registration of population at a place of residence or stay (mainly CIS countries practice) Advantages - supposed to cover migration of resident population (internal and international), nationals and foreigners Weaknesses: used to measure flows but not stocks, not possible to establish links between migrants and their descendants do not register vital events although exist in electronic form, primary information is often collected on paper carriers (to the right – the departure registration form used in Kyrgyzstan) 7 Place of birth Citizenship Previous place of residence New (future) place of residence Current place of residence Departure registration form

Registers of aliens (foreigners) Include information on entry (sometimes) residence ( temporary and long-term/permanent) access to the labour market, family reunification, asylum … citizenship acquisition Other authorities can also use or contribute to the register - border servicer, customs, Ministry of foreign affairs Accumulate information both on flows (issued documents, applications received/processed) and stocks (number of status holders) Processing and decision making on the cases related to foreigners Separate registers of refugees – to process applications of asylum seekers 8 Same disadvantages as all registers have. Besides, information on minor children is often added to parental records and not always included in aggregated statistics; citizens of some countries are not subject to accounting

Other administrative sources Data bases of different agencies responsible for population registration (with different purposes) The main rule: if administrative record contains some “geographical” information like place of birth, place of previous or next residence, country of citizenship statistics on migration can be produced on its basis 9

Visa statistics 10 A number of countries use visa statistics to measure inflows and publish detailed reports on the types of visas. Allows to see the structure of the flows - immigration and non - immigration by purpose of entry. Weaknesses: Visa-waiver programs or bilateral agreements of visa-free trips (most often- for short- term visits, but not always) exclude a part of inflow from statistics. A visa is not always followed by a trip Multiple entry visa: 1 visa – several trips Dependants may have the same type of visa and the main applicant Same person can obtain visa of different types or in different years USA Visa office report Mainly – statistics on flows. Data on stocks could be available if the number of visa holders in the country is known

Consular registration statistics The main goal of consular registration: a state must know the number of its citizens and their contact info in case of emergencies and during the elections. Weaknesses: In some countries, citizens are charged with the requirement to notify the Consulate of stay in the country for more than a certain period, while in many countries it is voluntary Statistics do not always reflect emigration There is no clear mechanism to monitor the registration or de-registration 11 The number of persons registered / de- registered within a period (flows) and stock of residents (permanent or temporary) citizens at the end of the period. Some countries grant citizenship to people residing abroad, but they are not emigrants: Case of Russia – over RF citizens reside in Moldova (Transnistria) due to citizenship acquisition, not emigration CD –Consular Department

Administrative data collected at the borders: passport control and different cards. Flows only Registration on the basis of passport control Distribution, collection and processing of special cards (migration, passenger) Administrative practice on the identification of cases of illegal border crossing, overstay, fraud documents, as well as statistics on detentions at the borders Interpretation needs accuracy: coverage depends on different reasons - technical and political as well 12 Basic limitations: most of the movements are the trips, not the people, No statistics can be collected at the internal borders of a community of states (like Schengen zone)

Passport control statistics are difficult to interpret and could hardly be used to measure migration 13 Accuracy of entries and exits registration may differ. The residual does not always reflect “net migration”, or “illegal migrants remaining in the country” Case of the Russian Federation - residual decreased when checkpoints at the borders became better technically equipped

14 Case of Georgia Border crossing data could hardly register population loss within the intercensal interval. Real net emigration in exceeded minus 744 thousand, while border control data showed + 25,4 thousand net immigration Components of population change in Georgia during the intercensal period ( ) (Thousand) YearPopulation Live birthsDeaths Natural increase Net migration (border control data) ,5446,646,40,2-27, ,246,10,1-27, ,648,80,85, ,540,75,876, ,842,35,5-12, ,341,28,1-20, ,64313,6-10, ,446,616,834, ,647,914,718, ,88,220, ,37,7-21, ,948,69,3-2, ,6460,649,111,5-6, Population change = -641,9702,1599,8+ 102,3+ 25,4 Source: National statistics office Demographic balance equation: Net migration = – Net migration = - 744,2 thousand

As mentioned - in case of absence of checkpoints at the borders between some countries, statistics are not available. Some alternative approaches are possible. Schengen zone example.

Generally filled in on arrival, in a number of countries and sometimes - on exit as well As a rule, applied to foreigners, in some countries also to nationals To all passengers or exceptions possible Different scale of use a source of data. Few countries produce statistics on this basis 16 Arrival/departure (passenger, migration etc. ) cards Flows only Processing is laborious if the card is not in machine- readable or not filled immediately in electronic form, re- entry possible. Statistics reflect trips rather than people Processing is laborious if the card is not in machine- readable or not filled immediately in electronic form, re- entry possible. Statistics reflect trips rather than people

Passenger cards are an important source of statistics in selected countries. Represent trips, not travelers. Examples of USA (Arrival /Departure record I-94) and Tajikistan (migration cards for nationals) 17 Tajikistan (Migration card for nationals) USA (Arrival/departure record I-94) Number of Tajikistan nationals leaving abroad for work, thousand YearsTotal Age, years Under and more Both sexes , ,322,7322,8257,16, , , ,416,6203,2475,597, ,439,6380,2306,610, ,156,4359,5157,517, ,040,9379,3308,810,0

Statistics on labour migration Data on labour in-migration Visa statistics (job visas) Statistics on issued work permits Statistics of residence permits attributed to workers Employers’ reports on hired foreigners ! Renewals and dependants may be included into statistics of visas and residence permits Data on labour out- migration – rare examples of successful practices: statistics of pre-departure contracts and other organized forms of labour out- migration (Philippines) 18 Migrant workers or working migrants? Definitions matter. Flows – issued permits (signed contracts), Stock - valid permits/contracts at the end/beginning of reporting period

Statistics on educational migration – mainly of administrative nature In-migration Different sources: Visa statistics (student visa) Residence permits statistics (permits attributed to students) Administrative records of educational institutions in a country of destination Out-migration Out-migration is hard to measure Data on educational out-migration could be found in the sources of the receiving country Available statistics mainly include the students with governmental scholarships or moving on the basis of bilateral international agreements within special exchange programs 19

Pattern of statistical report on international students in the Russian Federation Reports of educational institutions to the Ministry of education, based on administrative records of the institutions. Reflect flows (enrolled and graduated) and stock in the beginning of academic year 20 Graduates Stock Enrolled

Statistics on asylum (refugees, asylum seekers, internally displaced persons) are based on administrative procedures of applications processing and status granting. People are more likely to be registered. Data on flows and stocks available National reports provided to UNHCR which maintains a database on forced migrants Statistics of applications, decisions, stocks of status holders 21 Each country that have signed the Convention on refugees (1950) and The Protocol (1967) has some data on asylum seekers and provides statistics to UNHCR National statistics as a rule are produced by migration authorities

Undocumented / illegal/ irregular migration: limited possibilities of direct measurement Illegal entry Overstay Illegal work Direct measurement on the basis of administrative procedures: detentions at the border detentions and administrative sanctions against undocumented migrants within special raids in the country, deportations /expulsions, etc. regularization campaigns data The data are often combined with census or survey statistics. Example: USA – residual method American community survey (ACS) data on foreign born population compared with statistics on legal permanent residents, residual is interpreted as the stock of illegal migrants 22

Complimentary administrative data on migration (but important for certain analytical topics ) Vital statistics in the countries of destination includes the cases related to migrants – foreign and / or foreign born. Children born to migrants, marriages, divorces, deaths of migrants Labour market research - statistics on foreign-trained, foreign-born or foreign labour force, especially in selected occupations 23

Citizenship acquisition Statistics are generally easy to understand: data on people granted citizenship are distributed by the countries of the previous citizenship But in some cases (USA, Canada) – by the countries of birth 24 Considerable decrease in 2003 (it happened to the citizens of all other countries as well) is explained with putting in force of a new, rather strict citizenship law. After the amendments were adopted in 2003, the process restored. Thus, administrative statistics are very sensitive to changes in legislation

Issues of definitions in statistics on migration: basic concept – change of place of usual residence for a certain period of time Recommendations UN recommends to separately count long-term and short term migrants, using special time criteria as well as selected reasons for move “An international migrant is ‘any person who changes his or her country of usual residence’ (UN Recommendations, 1998)”. A period of at least 12 months is recommended (demographic statistics considerations) Place of usual residence: “the country in which a person lives, that is to say, the country in which he or she has a place to live where he or she normally spends the daily period of rest” (UN Recommendations, 1998). Conference of European statisticians specified that a person’s place of usual residence is that at which he/she spends most of his/her daily night-rest. (CES recommendations for the 2010 censuses of Population and Housing, UN Geneva, New York 2006) Countries’ practices Administrative systems work in accordance with the national law, in legal acts it is hard to find any reference to the daily night-rest Countries response: not always possible to fully implement UN recommendations, statistics on long-term migration may include only people with residence permits, only foreigners, may reflect status change rather than actual migration etc. Time criteria differ – from 3 months up to 12 months as well as from expected or real duration of residence Administrative data bases can provide information on migrant’s duration of residence, filters could be used to extract information needed 25

Some examples: OECD countries and CIS OECD (34 countries, including the world biggest economies) For the details – see OECD International Migration Outlook Almost all the countries (with rare exceptions) use administrative data to measure flows and stocks but often implement different definitions (flows): Australia : settler arrivals + status change USA – issuance of permanent residence permits (status change) Germany – registrations of foreigners holding a residence permit and intending to stay at least one week in the country CIS (11 countries of the former USSR) Statistics on flows totally depend on administrative procedures of registration at- and de-registration from the place of residence Statistics on migrants stocks in these countries are based on censuses (foreign and foreign born) or – aliens registers (foreign population) Only some countries started to employ population registers and only two of them (Moldova and Armenia) produce statistics on migration on this basis 26 In some countries statistics on stocks of foreign born are more important than on foreign population In some countries statistics on stocks of foreign born are more important than on foreign population

Administrative data on migration have some limitations that may influence coverage and consistency To correctly use and interpret administrative statistics some considerations should be taken into account: 27 An importance of being cautious working with administrative statistics on migration

A checklist of “warnings”  Administrative statistics on migration show the “formal” part of migration (declared cases). Non declaration of arrivals and departures (most often) leads to underestimation of migration  Free mobility zones exclude a considerable part of migrants from statistics (some types of statistics reflect only the nationals of the third countries)  Dependants and main applicants might be included into the same statistical category  Info on minors can be not recorded  Multiple nationality affects the completeness and structure of flows and stocks statistics  Sensitivity to regulations and legislation changes (considerable fluctuations of the numbers are possible)  Procedures ( issuance of documents, status changes) versus migrants or migrations  Renewals and first time issued documents are often not divided  Fiscal year versus calendar year (USA, Canada, etc.)  Impact of the “human factor” on the accuracy of primary information, data storage and processing (missing variables, errors, etc.) 28 Incomplete coverage, different definitions, errors Coverage (under- or over-) Different definitions (issues of time series and comparability) Errors (quality and consistency) And of course, administrative data can hardly explain migrants’ behavior and opinions: surveys are still needed

Changes in administrative regulations cause changes in methodology of data collection USA: I-94 statistics Changes to Nonimmigrant Admissions in The total count of I-94 nonimmigrant admissions in 2010 and 2011 is higher than in previous years. The increase is largely due to the addition of technology systems that now record some land admissions (along both borders) that were previously excluded from the I-94 data collection. “Readers are encouraged to exercise caution when interpreting recent trends in nonimmigrant admissions” (MPI report ry-admissions-nonimmigrants-united-states/) UK: ONS website Policy and legislative changes affecting migration to the UK: timeline – an Excel file with detailed information on changesPolicy and legislative changes affecting migration to the UK: timeline A good practice of data producers – to publish a more comprehensive “User guide”, especially if migration law has a long history and principles of statistics collection have been continuously changing 29

Administrative data - a “puzzle” or an overlapping ? Same migrant is a subject of registration in different systems, thus information could overlapping or complementary: it is necessary to understand whether the numbers could be summed up or not For instance - a potential migrant-worker arrives to a country and is registered at a place of temporary residence, then, applies and receives a work permit, residence permit etc., thus is reflected in different types of statistics An example: labour migration statistics in the Russian Federation. Statistics on issued permissions: Russia implements work permits and “patents” - two types of documents with almost no overlapping. Volumes could be totalized Statistics on registrations at a place of residence with purpose of arrival “work”, include persons that were granted permissions to work and do not complement this category 30 Russia 2014million Temporary residence registrations, purpose "work"4,0 Work permits issued1,3 Patents* issued2,5 Total3,8 *Patent – a license allowing foreigner from a visa-free country to work at private household, Since 2015 – at enterprises as well

Concluding remarks Administrative sources in the era of computerization play more and more important role in production of statistics on migration Their advantages are obvious, but some weaknesses are also unavoidable and can lead to misunderstanding of statistics The main tip: If you are a data user - read metadata chapter attentively If you are a producer – please, provide detailed metadata, including information on changes in definitions 31

Thank you for your attention! 32