Global economic environment influence on local business decisions BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT 2016 The 9th International Scientific Conference Giedrė Gečiauskienė.

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Presentation transcript:

Global economic environment influence on local business decisions BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT 2016 The 9th International Scientific Conference Giedrė Gečiauskienė Head of Markets Lithuania Danske bank Lithuania

11 The world is learning to live in the negative interest rates environment EURJPYCHFUSD 1 month –ibor-0,35-0,05-0,770,43 3 month –ibor-0, ,730,63 6 month –ibor-0,140,00-0,650,90 12 month –ibor-0.010,09-0,531,23 5 year IRS0,00-0,07-0,581,16 10 year IRS0,530,14-0,171,60 Source: Bloomberg

22 Quantitative easing – beyond the level of comprehension Assets growth in major central banks Source: Macrobond

33 Performance of global economy is moderate regardless of monetary stimuli Source: Bloomberg

44 The world economy is dominated by few countries Nominal GDP (trn USD) GDP based on PPP (trn USD) United States17.41 China Japan Germany United Kingdom France Source: Bloomberg, Investopedia

55 China industrial phenomenon is somewhat fading…

66 …We do not expect China to suffer hard landing of the economy China Caixin manufacturing PMI China economy is slowing, and… But this will not be enough for the world economy to keep growth pace

77 Low interest rates and for long – will Japan scenario repeat in Europe? Source: Bloomberg

88 Negative interest rates so far do not seem to influence either deposit or loans market in euro zone Source: Bloomberg

99 Value is massively created by relatively new concepts

10 The list of the largest capitalization companies is dominated by Z generation concepts Short NameCountryIndustry / Sector Market capitalization (bn USD) Annual revenues (bn USD) APPLE INCUSAInformation Technology ALPHABET INC-AUSAInformation Technology49571 MICROSOFT CORPUSAInformation Technology39479 EXXON MOBIL CORPUSAEnergy BERKSHIRE HATH-AUSAFinancials FACEBOOK INC-AUSAInformation Technology34118 AMAZON.COM INCUSAConsumer Discretionary JOHNSON&JOHNSONUSAHealth Care31464 GENERAL ELECTRICUSAIndustrials WELLS FARGO & COUSAFinancials24883 AT&T INCUSATelecommunication Services NESTLE SA-REGSwitzerlandConsumer Staples23783 CHINA MOBILEHong KongTelecommunication Services22996 JPMORGAN CHASEUSAFinancials22491 PROCTER & GAMBLEUSAConsumer Staples21961 ROCHE HLDG-GENUSSwitzerlandHealth Care21745 IND & COMM BK-AChinaFinancials WAL-MART STORESUSAConsumer Staples PFIZER INCUSAHealth Care20946 VERIZON COMMUNICUSATelecommunication Services ANHEUSER-BUSCH IBelgiumConsumer Staples20739 Source: Bloomberg

11 Even though Baltic countries have stabilized economic growth… Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets estimates

12 …Lithuania stays behind many European countries according to value added assessment Value added per employee Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets

13 Economic prosperity is highly dependent on education quality Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets

14 What is the path for Lithuanian economy years ahead? In the world where money does not cost anything, other competitive advantages and qualities are needed: Innovation Flexibility Creativeness Curiosity Courage Being first Lithuania is very successful in utilizing those. But there is still a lot of potential

15 Giedrė Gečiauskienė Head of Markets Lithuania Danske bank Lithuania Illustrations: Eglė Džiugytė Dealer of Danske Markets Lithuania Thank you!