BUILDING A WINNING CAMPAIGN: BUILDING A WINNING CAMPAIGN: Case Study: New Jersey By Mike DuHaime

CRASH COURSE: NEW JERSEY POLITICAL HISTORY Understanding the terrain

President US Senate Governor US Senate President Governor US Senate President US Senate Governor New Jersey is Politically Left-of-Center and Very Difficult for Republicans to Win.

Prior to 2009, New Jersey elected just four officials statewide: Governor, President, and its two US Senators. The last statewide Republican victory was in 1997 Former Governor Whitman won by 25,426 votes ( %) Prior to that was 1993… Former Governor Whitman won by 26,093 votes ( %) New Jersey hasn’t elected a Republican to the US Senate since Democrats have carried the elections for President in NJ by wide margins in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and Obama won New Jersey by 15 points and more than 500,000 votes

New York City Most expensive in the country Approximately 79% of NJ general electorate One week television ad buy: $1.5 million Philadelphia Fourth most expensive in the country Approximately 21% of NJ general electorate One week television ad buy: $650,000 There is no broadcast TV market that is NJ-only Expensive to compete Advantage: Incumbent New Jersey Media Markets

Registration & Turnout Statistics PartyRegistered VotersPercentage Republican1,074, % Democrat1,755, % Unaffiliated2,441, % TOTAL5,274,093 There are nearly as many Independent voters as there are those registered with a political party in New Jersey. Turnout historically for Gubernatorial elections was 49%. Year/Office2001 Gov 2002 US Sen 2003 St. Leg Pres Gov US Sen 2007 St. Leg 2008 Pres. Turnout %49%46%34%73%49%48%32%73%

New Jersey Issue Matrix Highest Property Taxes in the Nation Always #1 Issue in New Jersey In 2010, AVERAGE bill was $7,281/year; increased 70% since 1999 Jobs Consider that at the time of this poll, unemployment rate hit 9.3%, from 5.2% one year earlier. TOP ISSUE of NJ Voters% Property Taxes / (Taxes Total)31% (45%) Economy Total24% Budget Total7% Education Total4% Political Corruption3% Source: Quinnipiac Univ., 6/10/09

CANDIDATES Primary Election 2009

Our Candidate – Chris Christie US Attorney for New Jersey, Won 130 guilty pleas of public officials in New Jersey, Republican and Democrat “Anti-politician”- served one term at county level in 1990s Lives in one of the largest Republican-base counties Widespread party support from onset Passed on 2005 campaign

Primary Opponents Loud, Anti-tax Conservative From NJ’s Largest County Mayor of small Democrat- leaning town Anti-illegal immigration State legislator Morris County base Low name ID No party support Little ability to raise money

Primary Election Challenges Avoid a primary that hurts our general election chances Prevent Lonegan from building momentum Inoculate from predictable attacks: immigration and abortion Stay within public financing mandated spending “cap”

Primary Television Ad Campaign

Primary Election Strategy Simply win. Don’t play expectations game. Win the organization battle. Hold resources. Be the conservative in the race. Plan for immediate attacks from Corzine. Primary Election Night is not a time to celebrate, but a time to deliver a message.

Primary Election Polling

Money Race and Results Raised$5,361,049$3,444,112$54,300 Spent$5,170,238$3,427,927$53,507 Votes184,085140,9469,184 %55%42%3%

GENERAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN Governor Corzine vs. Chris Christie

The Incumbent: Governor Jon Corzine (D) Former Goldman Sachs CEO First ran for US Senate in 2000; lent himself $60 million, raised $3 million Republican opponent spent $6 million Won just 51.5% Head of DSCC, Elected Governor in 2005, used $43 million of his own money, raised $2 million

The Independent: Chris Daggett Worked for Fmr. Gov Tom Kean (R) Fmr. EPA Regional Administrator Investment manager Qualified for state matching funds and debate appearances

Campaign Dynamics Christie opts for public financing program, capping spending at $11 million Corzine “only” spent $27 million Christie has no money post-primary, Corzine utilizes financial advantage Christie begins with an 8-10 point lead out of the primary Corzine begins ad campaign right after Primary Prevent Daggett from catching enough momentum to eat into base Corzine Liabilities Property Taxes Toll Plan Stimulus/Health care debate Economy & Jobs – Unemployment over 9.5%

Strategic Imperatives Make the race about Jon Corzine Make the race about state issues Stick to the campaign’s spending plan Stick to the strategic plan Deliver a strong, simple contrast.

Discipline.

2009 Gubernatorial Campaign Spending

2009 Gubernatorial Polling: June - November

Budget Comparisons Christie Campaign spent 50% of its money in the last 23 days, and 25% of its money in the last 8 days. By comparison, Corzine spent approximately 50% of his money in the last 40 days, and approximately 25% of his money in the last 18 days.

General Election Ad Campaign

Mid-October “Surge” for Daggett Makes splash at first debate Develops a detailed plan for property taxes Endorsed by the state’s largest newspaper, the Star Ledger Wins endorsement of the Sierra Club October 15-20: 3 Polls Show Daggett between 14-20%

Ad Campaign

Ratio of Campaign TV Spending: Corzine vs. Christie

Combined Spending Comparison

GOTV (Get out the vote) Understand the election year. Turn out Presidential Year Republicans Micro-targeting – Pro Christie Independent Voters Heavy Mail, Phone Tactics

Final Polls: A Toss-Up PollChristieCorzineDaggettNet Monmouth Univ. 10/31-11/ Corzine +2 Survey USA (R) 10/30-11/ Christie +3 Quinnipiac 10/27-11/ Christie +2 PPP (D) 10/31-11/ Christie +6 Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-11/ Corzine +4 Fairleigh Dickenson Univ 10/22-11/ Corzine +2

Pollster.com Poll Tracking

Final Results CandidateVotesPercentage Christie 1,174, % Corzine 1,087, % Daggett 139, %