System of Systems Observations and Hypotheses George E. Pickett, Vice President

2 One Viewpoint on Current “SoS” Focus Notions of increased connectivity and flow date from at least 1970s. What is “new” in recent years? –Extent of linkage (sensor to weapon) –Breadth (multi-service) –Dynamic reconfigurability –Centrality to military success Underlying belief: –Connectivity is more valuable than systems –Connectivity is a response to uncertainty However: No successful SoS

3 A Framework Small Very Large Number of Nodes Predictability of Appearance High Low

4 Examples of Programs or Systems Small Very Large Number of Nodes BMD systems (2010)Future Combat System (FCS) CONUS Air Defense Network ( ) Internet GBS GPS AWACS F-16 M1A2 Rivet Joint BMD Systems (1960) Mobile Subscriber Equipment (MSE) Autodin DCS Predictability of Appearance High Low

5 Classification of Systems Small Very Large Number of Nodes Dependent Platform Sets Interactive Platform Sets (System of Systems) Interactive Networks Broadcast Networks Platforms Dedicated Platform Sets BackBone Networks Predictability of Appearance High Low

6 Skills of People and Organizations Small Very Large Number of Nodes “New” System Engineer - Operations - Technology - Acquisition Platform System Engineer Communications Systems Engineer (1)Movement toward even more complex MOEs (combat outcomes, program probabilities, marginal contribution, network performance, etc.). (2)Limited experience base (i.e., examples upon which to base theory or learning). (3)Limited ability to transfer theory or learning from other domains (e.g., high probability or viewing “problems” through lens of other disciplines). (4)Confronts government and industry with skill and organization “gaps.” Comments Predictability of Appearance High Low

7 Final Observations and Hypotheses How will SoS evolve? –Major project “trial and error” –Minor “SoS” expansion –“Transformation” to “Communications Networking” What could be done to build the “capability?” –Simulation/emulation: substitute for experience –Universities: constructs and processes –Standards: limit the “variability” of ongoing programs in order to become part of SoS in the future What are areas for research? –Sub-network, dynamic allocation and reconfiguration –SoS configuration impacts on military operations, doctrine and C2 –Decision maker tools and training for configuration management –Marginal value analysis (i.e., where to put $100M?) –Marginal value of additional connectivity