Natural Gas Fundamentals Summary SaskFerco March 16, 2001 This information is provided to you pursuant to your request and is provided solely for informational.

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Presentation transcript:

Natural Gas Fundamentals Summary SaskFerco March 16, 2001 This information is provided to you pursuant to your request and is provided solely for informational purposes and without prejudice or limitation to any rights of Enron Canada Corp. or any of its affiliates. This information reflects internal calculations made by Enron Canada Corp. which may or may not have been calculated in accordance with the provisions of any agreements between Enron Canada Corp. or any of its affiliates and you, and such information is subject to change at any time. Further, Enron Canada Corp. and its affiliates make no representation or warranty, and shall have no liability whatsoever, relating to the accuracy, currency or completeness of this information and no person receiving this information shall, or is entitled to, rely on this information in any manner whatsoever. This information is not intended to, and shall not in any way, bind or otherwise impose any legal or equitable obligation on Enron Canada Corp. or any of its affiliates (which are expressly released). Private and Confidential

U.S. Supply

U.S. Production Survey Source: Gas Fundamentals

EIA U.S. Field Receipts Source: EIA

Total Gas Rigs - U.S. Source: Gas Fundamentals

Total U.S. Rigs - %Oil vs. %Gas Source: Gas Fundamentals

Imports From Canada Source: PIRA Energy Group

US Supply  Field receipts are responding at a slower pace than forecast  EIA data suggests larger build than substantiated by company reporting  expectation for estimates to be revised downwards  Drilling continues to be robust  Well completions are trending upwards  Imports from Canada increase YOY due to Vector and Sable Island

Canadian Supply

Alberta Drilling Source: PIRA Energy Group

Alberta Drilling Source: PIRA Energy Group

Alberta Field Receipts Year on Year Difference (60 Day Rolling Average) (400) (300) (200) (100) Jan-99 1-Feb-99 1-Mar-99 1-Apr-99 1-May-99 1-Jun-99 1-Jul-99 1-Aug-99 1-Sep-99 1-Oct-99 1-Nov-991-Dec-99 1-Jan-00 1-Feb-00 1-Mar-00 1-Apr-00 1-May-00 1-Jun-00 1-Jul-00 1-Aug-00 1-Sep-00 1-Oct-00 1-Nov-001-Dec-00 1-Jan-01 1-Feb-01 1-Mar-01 Source: Enron

BC Field Receipts Year on Year Difference (60 day Rolling Average) (150) (100) (50) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov-9901-Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov-0001-Dec Jan Feb Mar-01 Source: Enron

Imports from the U.S. Source: PIRA Energy Group Vector impact

Canadian Supply  Drilling continues at record levels  Capital expenditures are on the rise  Completions are robust  Alta & BC field receipts are beginning to show improvement  Deeper exploration needed to move growth forward

Pricing

Nymex, Aeco and Aeco Basis Jun-90 Oct-90 Feb-91 Jun-91 Oct-91 Feb-92 Jun-92 Oct-92 Feb-93 Jun-93 Oct-93 Feb-94 Jun-94 Oct-94 Feb-95 Jun-95 Oct-95 Feb-96 Jun-96 Oct-96 Feb-97 Jun-97 Oct-97 Feb-98 Jun-98 Oct-98 Feb-99 Jun-99 Oct-99 Feb-00 Jun-00 Oct-00 Feb-01 Jun-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Forward Prices Historic $US/MMBtu NYMEX AECO Historical Basis Average (0.71) AECO BASIS Source: Enron

AECO “C” N.I.T. PRICES Historical and Forward Market Source: Enron

Nymex Prices Historical and Forward Markets Source: Enron

Canadian Demand

Canadian Demand Composition Source: PIRA Energy Group

U.S. Demand

U.S. Gas Demand Components Source: PIRA Energy Group

Canadian Storage

Intra-Alberta Storage Levels Source: Enron Forecast - exit heating season at historic lows

West CGA Storage Level Source: CGA

East CGA Storage Level Source: CGA

U.S. Storage

U.S. Storage Levels Source: Enron

AGA Storage Comparison Forecast - exit heating season at historic lows

U.S. Weather

Spring Weather Source: EarthSat

Summer Weather Source: Enron

Summary  Storage levels will be at historic lows at the end of the heating season  Mild weather in January and February have caused prices to fall dramatically - the “crisis” is over  Expect support for prices as storage competes with increasing demand for cooling and power generation  Wild Cards  Summer heat  Demand destruction (4-5 bcf/d off market now)  Recession  Supply response picks up