Localized heavy rains continued during the past seven days Little to no rain over northern Kenya, northern Tanzania, and Somalia Africa Briefing April.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March.

Advertisements

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 06 April.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 October 2010 For Real-time information:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 April 2008 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 09 AUGUST 2010 For more information, visit:

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 May 2011 For Real-time information:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 01, 2013.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 August.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 December 2010 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 January.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, Jan 2013 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 December 2013 For more information,

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 8 Mar 2011 For Real-time information:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 February.

Central America & Hispaniola Briefing 16 August 2011 Tropical Storm Gert.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 April 2009 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 May 2015.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 08 June.

By Matt Masek March 22, Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three.

Africa Hazards Briefing August 16, 2011 Miliaritiana Robjhon

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, June 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 9 July 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current.

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 May 2011 For Real-time information:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 04 May 2009 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 November 2010 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 07 July 2008 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 April 2009 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 July.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 26 May 2015.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 28 September.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 22 June.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 August.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 September.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 July 2010 For more information, visit:

Context: In Jan 2011 FEWS NET issued an accurate projection of food insecurity if the long rains failed, how predictable might the long rains be?

The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts La Nina will last through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 September.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 26 May 2014.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March 2009 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 April 2008 For more information, visit:

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, January 2016 Initial Conditions Issued 14 January 2016 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 08 December 2008 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 12 January.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008 For more information, visit:

Briefing for Central America and Hispaniola May 10, 2011 Miliaritiana Robjhon Apante season performance Observed Long-term.

Central America & Hispaniola Briefing September 6, 2011 Cat 3 Hurricane KATIA moving NW at 10 mph, with winds 125 mph and.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 12, 2012.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 31 May 2011.

Africa Briefing Africa Briefing 01 June 2010 Endalkachew Bekele

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 02 April.

Localized heavy rains over southwestern and northeastern Ethiopia Heavy rains fell locally over southern parts of Sudan Africa Briefing April 19, 2011.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 October 2010 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 October.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 06 July.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 26 May 2009 For more information, visit:

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 June 2009 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 April 2011 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 May 2012.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network Agroclimatic Outlook April 12, 2016 / EWIWG meeting Kabul, Afghanistan.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 September 2010 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 09 November 2009 For more information, visit:

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 March 2015 For more information,

Africa Briefing 21 September 2010

Presentation transcript:

Localized heavy rains continued during the past seven days Little to no rain over northern Kenya, northern Tanzania, and Somalia Africa Briefing April 26, 2011 Miliaritiana Robjhon

7-day and 30-day rainfall anomaly (mm) Last weekThis week 7-day 30-day Seasonal rainfall amounts only observed over localized areas Otherwise, dryness prevailed over much of eastern Africa Rainfall deficits [50-100mm]

Seasonal rainfall anomaly

Number of rain days during the last 30 days Southwestern Ethiopia, southwestern and eastern Kenya received more than 15 rain days during the last 30 days Areas affected by significant negative anomalies: Southern Ethiopia and central Kenya

SOURCE: Jim Rowland NDVI APR 6 – 15, 2011 Reduced actual evapotranspiration during the first 3 months of 2011, accounting for only 50-70% of the average Stressed vegetation, with NDVI anomalies between -0.2 to -0.1 during Apr 6- 15, 2011

Population density – LST anomaly – RFE anomaly: Mar 2011 SOURCE: USGS/EWX Population Density Land Surface Temperature (LST) Anomaly RFE Anomaly Warmer central Kenya and eastern Ethiopia, with above-average LST between 6-7⁰ during the past month Dry conditions prevailed over southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and northern and central Kenya, with deficits ranging between 10-50mm Areas with dense population affected by dryness in the GHA Based on analysis by Chris Funk

SOURCE: Chris Funk SOURCE: Gideon Galu Central Kenya: Mar-Apr contributes to 80% of Mar-Jun totals For Kenya, rainfall received during Mar-Apr is critical for seasonal rainfall performance

Concerns for Central & Eastern Kenya Short Term Mean Eastern Province Central Province By 1 st Dekad of May, Rainfall rates drop rapidly So far, the season matches 2009 exactly } If the rest of the seasonal is normal (which is probably unlikely), central Kenya will have seasonal totals 24% below normal. If the season is plays out like 2009, Central Kenya might receive ~40% below normal. } If the rest of the seasonal is normal (which is probably unlikely), central Kenya will have seasonal totals 23% below normal. If the season is plays out like 2009, Central Kenya might receive ~50% of normal. SOURCE: Chris Funk Green: average Red: 2009 Blue: 2011

ITF lagged behind the average position during the 2 nd dekad of Apr ITF Analysis

WRSI and SWI 1 Dekad of APR2 Dekad of APR

Rainfall forecast for GHA

Heavy downpours continued in western southern Africa

7-day and 30-day rainfall anomaly Last weekThis week 7-Day 30-Day

Rainfall percent normal & Basin excess rainfall map

Rainfall forecast for southern Africa

West Africa Heaviest rains over southeastern Nigeria and Cameroon Heavy rains across northern Ghana, Togo, and Benin

7-day and 30-day rainfall Anomaly (mm) 7-Day Last week This week 30-Day

Rainfall forecast for West Africa

La Nina expected to weaken toward a return to ENSO-neutral Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) at 1-month lead Climate Forecast System (CFS) at 1-month lead

Current Conditions

Africa hazards assessment