Overview of International and European Tourism in 2005 and 2006 By Luigi Cabrini, Regional Representative for Europe World Tourism Organization TTG Incontri 2006 (Rimini, Italy, October 2006)

Content presentation  2005/2006 – strong results despite all  – who won and who lost?  2005 in Europe and in the Mediterranean  Are we far from the 2020 forecast?  2006 full year forecast

Despite all … Terrorist attacks and threats Natural disasters Increased oil prices Avian flu scare Rebound of world economy (+4.9% in 2005 and +5.1% in 2006)

2005, had shown surprisingly results! 808 million international tourist arrivals = +5,6% Consolidation of the strong 2004 results (+10%) + 42 million tourist arrivals as compared to 2004 Source: World Tourism Organization, January 2006

…that continued in though at a slower pace *PreliminarySource: World Tourism Organization, June 2006

International Tourism in Europe in the first 4 months… *PreliminarySource: World Tourism Organization, June 2006

Content presentation  2005/2006 – strong results despite all  – who won and who lost?  2005 in Europe and in the Mediterranean  Are we far from the 2020 forecast?  2006 full year forecast

Europe : the most stable region! Source: World Tourism Organization, June 2006

World balance 2005 versus 2000 Change in International Tourist Arrivals Source: World Tourism Organization

International Tourism by region Source: World Tourism Organization

Content presentation  2005/2006 – strong results despite all  – who won and who lost?  2005 in Europe and in the Mediterranean  Are we far from the 2020 forecast?  2006 full year forecast

Europe - trends by subregion Source: World Tourism Organization Northern Europe: 3.5% Western Europe: 1.8% Central & Eastern: 7.1% Southern / Mediterranean: 3.5% Europe’s average annual growth rate 1990 – 2005 = 3.4% * Preliminary data

International Tourism in the Mediterranean Average growth rate Source: World Tourism Organization*

International Tourism in the Mediterranean Average growth rate Source: World Tourism Organization*

Top Tourism Destinations in the Mediterranean 2005 Source: World Tourism Organization* 2004 data; TF Estimated on 98% of VF

Content presentation  2005/2006 – strong results despite all  – who won and who lost?  2005 in Europe and in the Mediterranean  Are we far from the 2020 forecast?  2006 full year forecast

Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision 1,0 bn 808 m 1,6 bn Source: World Tourism Organization, January 2006*Preliminary

International Tourism by region Actual trend vs forecast Source: World Tourism Organization, January 2006*Preliminary

Europe - Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision 492 m 442 m 667 m Source: World Tourism Organization, January 2006*Preliminary

International Tourism in Europe Actual trend vs forecast Source: World Tourism Organization, January 2006*Preliminary

Content presentation  2005/2006 – strong results despite all  – who won and who lost?  2005 in Europe and in the Mediterranean  Are we far from the 2020 forecast?  2006 full year forecast

Forecast for 2006… Source: World Tourism Organization, June 2006*Preliminary

International Tourism Looking back at 2006 to date…  gradual slowdown of strong growth rate of ITA  decreased effect of external shocks at global level and quicker recovery time  several sports and cultural events  strength of air traffic (IATA: +6.1% up to August; +5.3% for Europe)  consumer confidence is up, as economy is strong (GDP +5.1% vs.+4.9% in 2005) and in spite of uncertainties and threats: – economy: interest rates; exchange rates; etc – high oil prices – terrorist threats

International Tourism in Europe Looking back at 2006 to date…  good economic growth Euro zone = +2.4% vs. +1.3% in 2005 Germany = +2% vs. +0.9% in 2005 UK = +2.7% vs.+1.9% in 2005  a still strong euro  Major events: World Cup; Cultural Events; Winter Olympics  continued expansion of low cost airlines  continued recovery of long-haul from USA (+4% outbound to Europe up to June) and from Asia  importance of emerging source markets: China and Russia

International Tourism in Italy International Tourist Arrivals 2005*: 36.5 million, -1.5% 23% market share in the Southern Med. Europe Average growth : +1.6% vs +4.4% in the subregion International Tourism Receipts 2005*: euro 28.5 billion (-0.7% in euro) 25% market share in Southern Med. Europe Source: World Tourism Organization*Preliminary results 2006 (Jan-July) % Arrivals + 9.3% Receipts

Thank you very much for your attention! World Tourism Organization