DOA-1 Intro to ADM Dr. Gorman Seminar 6

Problem Solving

Intro to ADM I Why design? Problem typologies and problem solving The Army Design Methodology – Doctrine – Underlying theory – Relationship to planning, op art, strategic thinking Potential pitfalls

The Art of What Works Acting Effectively Under Conditions of Uncertainty Understanding Procedural Action Pragmatic Action Flux Chaos Equivocality Purpose Learning by doing Sensemaking (Plausibility) Clausewitzean “methodism”

Wicked Problems No definitive formulation No stopping rules Not true or false, but good or bad No immediate and no ultimate test of a solution Every solution is a one-shot operation Do not have an enumerable set of solutions Every wicked problem is essentially unique Every wicked problem is a symptom of another problem Choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s resolution The planner has no right to be wrong Wicked problems are not solved but re-solved, over and over again

Existing Conditions Guidance (orders, policy and law) Desired Conditions Scopes framing of the operational environment Environmental Frame Actors Tendencies Potentials Relationships Difference Tensions Information Themes Patterns of : - Resistance & Opposition - Support Problem Frame Problem Statement Operational Approach Potential Actions Time Space Purpose Resources Risk Areas for Intervention Areas for Exploitation Select Boundaries for Action Design Concept Narrative and graphics Possible modification of guidance The Design Methodology Divergence & Deconstruction Transformation Convergence & Reconstruction 22

PROBLEM FRAME DESIGN CONCEPT ENVIRONMENTAL FRAME FRAME THE ENVIRONMENT What is the context in which the design will be implemented? What’s going on? Why has this situation developed? What does it mean? What’s the real story? FRAME THE PROBLEM(S) What problems should be addressed and what must be acted upon? What are the tensions that exist? What needs to change? What doesn’t need to change? What conditions need to exist for success? What else can happen? What are the risks? DEVISE A SOLUTION How will we respond to the problem? How might we go from existing conditions to desired conditions? What parallel and sequential actions are appropriate? Priority? Three Cognitive Spaces

4 Big Ideas (Theory) Behind Design 1.Learning (adaptation requires learning) – Design creates a learning system. The learning system then creates the design 2.Difference (diversity of ideas leads to better ideas) – Design is driven by a difference engine. Difference between perspectives, theories, systems and frames in design discourse generates creative tension, which is necessary for synthesis and develops deeper understanding 3.Systems (must see things as wholes) – Complex problems are complex because they require a systemic response. The goal of design is not just holistic understanding, but rather a strategy for systemic transformation 4.Social Creation (collaborative learning for complex problems) – Problems too complex for one person to understand completely depend on shared understanding. This places a premium on the management of group dynamics. Appropriate leadership, organization, facilitated discourse, and communication are essential to effective design

Potential Pitfalls 1.Takes too much time, especially for a busy commander 2.Who does design? (design artists vs. MDMP planners) 3.Too intellectual (ideas based in post-modernism) 4.Vocabulary requires translation; must speak “design” 5.Can’t be taught; learned through “reflective practice” 6.Oxymoronic – a doctrinal method without process 7.No stopping point or practical output; no clear relationship to planning 8.Challenges military culture 9.Problems already framed for you

Strengths of Design 1.Makes us to think before we act (get the problem right) 2.Uses collaborative learning for greater understanding 3.Encourages diversity of ideas for better solutions 4.Facilitates action in the face of uncertainty; doesn’t demand certainty in assessment or solution 5.Describes what the best of us have done all along

Practical Exercise Divide into three groups. Each group explain and advocate for their assigned interpretive category: – Traditionalists – Complex systems advocates – Integrationists

DOA-2 Intro to ADM II

Intro to ADM II: Educating Design Thinking Argo: Iran 1979 as a Design Problem Lawson: How Designers Thinking Schoen: Learning Design – Reflection in/on action (“the ladder of reflection”) – The design studio – Coaching design Alexander: Design and Decision-making

Iran 1979 as a Design Problem

The Art of What Works Acting Effectively Under Conditions of Uncertainty Understanding Procedural Action Pragmatic Action Flux Chaos Equivocality Purpose Learning by doing Sensemaking (Plausibility) Clausewitzean “methodism”

Videos Kathryn Schultz on being wrong Cynefin problem solving framework

Schoen: Educating the Reflective Practioner Why design cannot be taught Knowing in action→ reflection in action→ reflection on action→ knowing in practice The ladder of reflection The design studio Coaching an effective practicum

Schoen: Reciprocal Ladders of Reflection Action Reflection on Action Reflection on Reflection on Action Coach/MentorStudent Action Reflection on Action Reflection on Reflection on Action Demonstrate Imitate Observe Critique Experiment Reciprocal reflection in action leads to convergence of meaning and competent designing Meta-level Explain Process Provide Example Apply Reflection

Cynefin* Framework 25 DISORDER COMPLEX COMPLICATED CHAOTIC SIMPLE Probe-Sense-Respond Act-Sense-Respond Sense-Analyze-Respond Sense-Categorize-Respond UNORDERED ORDERED Cause and effect are only coherent in retrospect and do not repeat Cause and effect separated over time and space No cause and effect relationships perceivable Cause and effect relations repeatable, perceivable, and predictable *Pronounced ku–nev-in Pattern-based management Fact-based management

Lawson: How Designers Think The design process – The process is endless (different than puzzling) – There is no infallibly correct process – Involves finding as well as solving problems – Inevitably involves subjective value judgements – Is a prescriptive activity – Designers work in the context of a need for action (design is not an end in itself)

Lawson: How Designers Think Design problems – Cannot be comprehensively stated – Require subjective interpretation – Tend to be organized hierarchically Design solutions – Inexhaustible number of different solutions – No optimal solution – Often holistic responses – Are a contribution to knowledge – Are part of other design problems

Lawson: How Designers Think Design thinking is a skill Designers, clients, users, legislators Functions of constraints (internal vs. external) Types of constraints (radical, practical, formal, symbolic)

Lawson’s Model

DOA-3 Intro to ADM III

DOA-4 Understanding the Operational Environment

Understanding the Operational Environment I Understanding the OE in doctrine Understanding the qualitative and subjective Historical case: Prussia

Framing the Operational Environment (from AWC Campaign Planning Handbook) What’s going on? Why has this situation developed? What is causing conflict among the actors? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the relevant actors? What does it mean? Why is the situation (or the projected future situation) undesirable? What’s the real story? What conditions need to exist for success? What are indicators that we are on the path to success? What are indicators that we are going in the wrong direction?

Design Concept: OE Description Text and graphics describing the operational environment. – Key guidance summary. – Systems relationships diagrams that describe the environment. – Key actor relationship diagrams. – Description of what might cause key conditions to change. – Description of the desired end state. – Description of key aspects of alternative end states.

Prussia,

DOA-5 Understanding the Operational Environment II

Understanding the OE (2) Mystery of a masterpiece Narrative Wargaming as narrative PE: Scharnhorst’s narrative

DOA-6 Understanding the Operational Environment III

Framing the Operational Environment (from AWC Campaign Planning Handbook) What’s going on? Why has this situation developed? What is causing conflict among the actors? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the relevant actors? What does it mean? Why is the situation (or the projected future situation) undesirable? What’s the real story? What conditions need to exist for success? What are indicators that we are on the path to success? What are indicators that we are going in the wrong direction?

OE Products for Design Concept

Prussia,

DOA-7 Problem Framing

Understanding the Problem (I) Framing the Problem: Doctrine Framing the Problem: Lawson Framing the Problem: PE – Lawrence – War in the Pacific

A design problem? Barnes Wallis and “The Bouncing Bomb” Test footage

Lawson’s Model

Lawson: How Designers Think The design process – The process is endless (different than puzzling) – There is no infallibly correct process – Involves finding as well as solving problems – Inevitably involves subjective value judgements – Is a prescriptive activity – Designers work in the context of a need for action (design is not an end in itself)

Lawson: How Designers Think Design problems – Cannot be comprehensively stated – Require subjective interpretation – Tend to be organized hierarchically Design solutions – Inexhaustible number of different solutions – No optimal solution – Often holistic responses – Are a contribution to knowledge – Are part of other design problems

Lawson: How Designers Think Design thinking is a skill Designers, clients, users, legislators Functions of constraints (internal vs. external) Types of constraints (radical, practical, formal, symbolic)

Design Traps The Category Trap The Puzzle Trap The Number Trap The Icon Trap The Image Trap

DOA-8 Problem Framing II

Wicked Problems No definitive formulation No stopping rules Not true or false, but good or bad No immediate and no ultimate test of a solution Every solution is a one-shot operation Do not have an enumerable set of solutions Every wicked problem is essentially unique Every wicked problem is a symptom of another problem Choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s resolution The planner has no right to be wrong Wicked problems are not solved but re-solved, over and over again

4 Big Ideas (Theory) Behind Design 1.Learning (adaptation requires learning) – Design creates a learning system. The learning system then creates the design 2.Difference (diversity of ideas leads to better ideas) – Design is driven by a difference engine. Difference between perspectives, theories, systems and frames in design discourse generates creative tension, which is necessary for synthesis and develops deeper understanding 3.Systems (must see things as wholes) – Complex problems are complex because they require a systemic response. The goal of design is not just holistic understanding, but rather a strategy for systemic transformation 4.Social Creation (collaborative learning for complex problems) – Problems too complex for one person to understand completely depend on shared understanding. This places a premium on the management of group dynamics. Appropriate leadership, organization, facilitated discourse, and communication are essential to effective design

Five “Component Technologies” Systems thinking Personal mastery Mental models Building shared vision Team learning

Senge’s “Wheel of Team Learning”

Design (Planning) as Learning

The 11 Laws of the Fifth Discipline Today's problems come from yesterday's "solutions." The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back. Behavior grows better before it grows worse. The easy way out usually leads back in. The cure can be worse than the disease. Faster is slower. Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space. Small changes can produce big results...but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious. You can have your cake and eat it too ---but not all at once. Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants. There is no blame.

D409 Understanding the Problem III

The 11 Laws of the Fifth Discipline Today's problems come from yesterday's "solutions." The harder you push, the harder the system pushes back. Behavior grows better before it grows worse. The easy way out usually leads back in. The cure can be worse than the disease. Faster is slower. Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space. Small changes can produce big results...but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious. You can have your cake and eat it too ---but not all at once. Dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants. There is no blame.

4 Big Ideas (Theory) Behind Design 1.Learning (adaptation requires learning) – Design creates a learning system. The learning system then creates the design 2.Difference (diversity of ideas leads to better ideas) – Design is driven by a difference engine. Difference between perspectives, theories, systems and frames in design discourse generates creative tension, which is necessary for synthesis and develops deeper understanding 3.Systems (must see things as wholes) – Complex problems are complex because they require a systemic response. The goal of design is not just holistic understanding, but rather a strategy for systemic transformation 4.Social Creation (collaborative learning for complex problems) – Problems too complex for one person to understand completely depend on shared understanding. This places a premium on the management of group dynamics. Appropriate leadership, organization, facilitated discourse, and communication are essential to effective design

D410 Understanding the Problem IV

Reinforcing Loop

Balancing Loop

Reinforcing Loop with Delay

Balancing Loop with Delay

Limits to Growth

Shifting the Burden

D411 Developing an Operational Approach I

The Art of What Works Acting Effectively Under Conditions of Uncertainty Understanding Procedural Action Pragmatic Action Flux Chaos Equivocality Purpose Learning by doing Sensemaking (Plausibility) Clausewitzean “methodism”

China-Burma-India

D412 Developing an Operational Approach II

Lawson’s Model

Design Traps The Category Trap The Puzzle Trap The Number Trap The Icon Trap The Image Trap

China-Burma-India

DOA-15: Ukraine PE

DOA-16 & 17: Mali PE

DOA-18: Endgame in Iraq dgame/view/ dgame/view/

GEN Casey’s “Reflections” Developing vision and strategy Creating unity of effort Continuous assessment and adaptation Influencing organizational culture Civil-military interaction Political-military integration Momentum and transitions Sustaining yourself

The Art of What Works Acting Effectively Under Conditions of Uncertainty Understanding Procedural Action Pragmatic Action Flux Chaos Equivocality Purpose Learning by doing Sensemaking (Plausibility) Clausewitzean “methodism”

Tetlock on Forecasting etter_Forecasters_Than_Hedgehogs etter_Forecasters_Than_Hedgehogs

Steps to Scenario Planning 1.Identify focal issue or decision 2.Key forces in the local environment 3.Driving forces 4.Rank by importance and uncertainty 5.Selecting scenario logics 6.Fleshing out the scenarios 7.Implications 8.Selection of leading indicators and signposts