09/20/2010 National Petroleum Council Future Transportation Fuels Study Supply and Infrastructure Task Group Update November 9, 2010 Joseph Caggiano 1

09/20/2010 Work Streams and Scope 2 Evaluate supply forecasts and assumptions through 2035/2050. Assess technology and technology investments to accelerate delivery and adoption of new fuel/vehicle systems. Analyze infrastructure requirements for fuel types and volumes under various conditions. Describe technology pathways and timelines for introducing various fuel options into the supply chain. Assess environmental impact, energy security and economic competitiveness implications of fuel/vehicle technology options. Analyze various supply situations and provide a framework for developing policy options. Supply & Infrastructure Subteams Scope

09/20/2010 Study Diversity 3

09/20/2010 Activities since September CSC Meeting 4 1.Confirmed framing questions 2.Continued recruiting for the Task Group and subteams 3.Established working liaison with North America Resources Study 4.Added additional reference studies to the Study document library Completed commentaries on the AEO 2010 Reference Case 6.Identified technology pathways and pinch points for fuel streams 7.Created Vision Model instructions and Reference Case extrapolation to Began initial definition of alternatives to Base Case

09/20/2010 Early Observations on AEO Number and variety of fuels that will be introduced in the U.S. 2.Range of technology development and adoption 3.Pervasive infrastructure questions (e.g., existence, capacity, bottlenecks) 4.Fuel-demand volumes (e.g. higher than IEA) 5.Regulatory intervention as prerequisite for market penetration of unconventional fuels and vehicles 6.Distribution of GHG emissions by fuel/ vehicle and “50% by 2050” shortfall 7.Natural Gas volumes and vehicle applications

09/20/2010 Upcoming Task Group Activities 6 Develop and document at least one alternative pathway to the Base Case by December 15th - VISION Tool - Carbon variables - North American Resource Study data Conduct 1 st technology Peer Review Other December 15 th deliverables