2011 Census results for Edinburgh some insights into demographic, social and economic change CEC Planning Information, Services for Communities, January.

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Presentation transcript:

2011 Census results for Edinburgh some insights into demographic, social and economic change CEC Planning Information, Services for Communities, January 2014

Scope  Census data release – progress to date and Council analysis  Edinburgh – distinctive characteristics  Key changes since 2001 – size, characteristics and distribution of population  Focus on demographic trends – age profile  Divergence between Census and Mid Year Population Estimates C C E E N N S S U U S S

Census data release programme  ‘Univariate’ data : straight counts e.g. age groups, household types, ethnic groups, industry, occupation, car ownership  ‘Cross-tabulated’ data e.g. economic activity by ethnic group health by tenure  Origin / destination data commuting flows; house moves C C E E N N S S U U S S published for all geographies spring 2014 late 2014

Summary of Council analysis (1) Currently published :  Population, households and age structure (overview)  Population distribution and density (Edin. / Scotland / UK)  City Comparisons (Edinburgh compared with other UK cities)  City Trends (Historical context – change since prev. censuses)  Local Area Profiles : (1) wards (2) NPAs (3) community councils  Thematic Reports : (1) health (2) ethnicity (3) transport & travel C C E E N N S S U U S S

Summary of Council analysis (2) Future intentions :  Census atlas (distribution / concentration of different ‘client’ groups / needs / market sectors)  Additional thematic reports, e.g. students; housing; household formation / types; economic activity  Travel-to-work analysis (volume of commuting / mode of travel) C C E E N N S S U U S S

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Age profiles : comparative population pyramids, 2011 EdinburghScotlandGlasgow East LothianMidlothianWest Lothian

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households  Cosmopolitan – large European population (not just A8 countries) C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households  Cosmopolitan – large European population (not just A8 countries)  Well educated / qualified C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households  Cosmopolitan – large European population (not just A8 countries)  Well educated / qualified  Relatively healthy C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households  Cosmopolitan – large European population (not just A8 countries)  Well educated / qualified  Relatively healthy  High proportion of households in flats / tenements C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households  Cosmopolitan – large European population (not just A8 countries)  Well educated / qualified  Relatively healthy  High proportion of households in flats / tenements  Compact city with high population density  Uptake of sustainable travel – public transport, walking, cycling C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households  Cosmopolitan – large European population (not just A8 countries)  Well educated / qualified  Relatively healthy  High proportion of households in flats / tenements  Compact city with high population density  Uptake of sustainable travel – public transport, walking, cycling  High employment rate – esp. full-time work C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households  Cosmopolitan – large European population (not just A8 countries)  Well educated / qualified  Relatively healthy  High proportion of households in flats / tenements  Compact city with high population density  Uptake of sustainable travel – public transport, walking, cycling  High employment rate – esp. full-time work  High dependence on services; little manufacturing C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

C C E E N N S S U U S S

What is distinctive about Edinburgh ?  Young working age adults  Small households  Cosmopolitan – large European population (not just A8 countries)  Well educated / qualified  Relatively healthy  High proportion of households in flats / tenements  Compact city with high population density  Uptake of sustainable travel – public transport, walking, cycling  High employment rate – esp. full-time work  High dependence on services; little manufacturing  Large professional population C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of UK cities

Key changes since 2001  Total population and households  Population distribution  Other characteristics  Changing age profile C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Scottish LAs ranked by population change

C C E E N N S S U U S S Scottish LAs ranked by % population change

C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S

Edinburgh’s changing age profile  Overall comparison with Scotland  Comparison of selected age groups with other Scottish local authorities C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Scottish LAs ranked by % population change age 0 to 4

C C E E N N S S U U S S Scottish LAs ranked by % population change age 25 to 29

C C E E N N S S U U S S Scottish LAs ranked by % population change age 30 to 34

C C E E N N S S U U S S Scottish LAs ranked by % population change age 65 to 79

C C E E N N S S U U S S Scottish LAs ranked by % population change age 80 plus

Divergence between the Census and Mid Year Population Estimates (MYPEs) C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S

C C E E N N S S U U S S Comparison of Census with Mid Year Population Estimates, 2011, by age group

C C E E N N S S U U S S

2011 Census results for Edinburgh implications of results for Council’s financial planning

Implications of results for Council’s financial planning C C E E N N S S U U S S  Key expenditure drivers  Existing demographic-related provision within LTFP  Role of early intervention and prevention  Review of existing assumptions – planned work  Implications for 2015/16 onwards – Council Tax, NDR and Government Grant