Mounting Pressures Facing the U.S. Workforce and the Increasing Need for Adult Education and Literacy Patrick J. Kelly The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

Percentage of Adults with at Least a High School Diploma by Age-Group 2004 Source: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Economic Development, 2006 Education at a Glance

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004 Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2006

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Percentage Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required 19.0% 30.8% 18.8% 16.6% 19.6% 25.1% 17.7% 9.6% 8.7% 8.5% 11.4% 0%7%14%21%28%35% Professional Degree Doctorate Degree Masters Degree Postsecondary Degree Plus Work Experience Bachelor's Degree Associates Degrees Postsecondary Vocational Award Work Experience in Related Occupation (No Formal Award) Long-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award) Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award) Short-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Number Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required (In Thousands) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 8,526 1, ,473 5,891 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000 Employment Requiring Some Level of Postsecondary Education Work Experience in Related Occupation (No Formal Award) Long-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award) Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award) Short-Term On-the-Job Training (No Formal Award)

Participation in the Workforce by Level of Education, 2000 (Percent) Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 5% sample, Less than HSHigh SchoolSome CollegeAssociateBachelor'sGraduate/Prof. Participating in the WorkforceNot Participating in the Workforce

Projected Change in U.S. Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity From 2000 to 2020 (In Millions) Source: US Census Bureau, Population Projections based on the 2000 Decennial Census Note: Projections based on the 2000 Census are not available for Native Americans to 1718 to 2425 to 4445 to 6465 and Older WhiteAfrican-AmericanHispanic /LatinoAsian /Pacific Islander The majority of expected growth in our young population from 2000 to 2020 is among segments of our population that have the lowest levels of education – while whites are projected to decline.

Transition and Completion Measures from High School to College Completion for the U.S. – 2004 Source: National Center for Education Statistics; Common Core Data, Digest of Education Statistics, and IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey 69.3% 68.8% 31.1% 58.2% 47.8% 62.5% 24.3% 39.7% 54.5% 61.8% 30.3% 45.8% 57.4% 28.6% 36.5% 78.4% 32.7% 64.6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Graduating from High School Within Four Years Attending College Directly Out of High School Three-Year Graduation Rate at Two-Year Colleges Six-Year Graduation Rate at Four-Year Colleges Not Available White African-American Hispanic /Latino Asian /Pacific Islander Native American Roughly half of Hispanics and African-Americans don’t complete high school within four years.

Target Populations Adults with no high school diplomas (or equivalent) High school only completers unprepared for the workforce or to enter college (the best proxy we have – those whose family incomes are less than a living wage) English as a Second Language (ESL) – with less than a high school diploma (or equivalent) or just a high school diploma Incarcerated population

Percent of Adults 18 to 64 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Number of Adults 18 to 64 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) ,148,225 2,741,541 1,602,346 1,445, , , ,534815, , , , ,546574, , , ,910464, ,853450, , ,867399, , , , , , , ,950262, , , , , ,863159, , , ,058 84,790 73,17772,389 68,71962,153 46,86646,396 43,04739,72032,938 26,68726, ,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 California Texas New York Florida Illinois Georgia North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania Michigan New Jersey Tennessee Virginia Arizona Indiana AlabamaLouisiana Missouri Washington Kentucky South CarolinaMassachusetts Maryland Colorado Mississippi WisconsinOklahoma Oregon Arkansas Nevada Minnesota Connecticut New Mexico Kansas West Virginia Iowa Utah Idaho Nebraska Rhode Island New Hampshire Maine Delaware Hawaii Montana Dist of Col South Dakota Alaska Vermont Wyoming North Dakota U.S. = 25,380,718 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Percent of Adults 18 to 24 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Number of Adults 18 to 24 Year Old with Less than a High School Diploma (or Equivalent) 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Distribution (%) of Residents 18 to 64 with Less than a High School Diploma by Grade-Level Completed and State, 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community SurveyNote: Excludes 18 to 24 year olds enrolled in school 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% California Texas Arizona Illinois Nevada Massachusetts Rhode island New York New Jersey HawaiiNebraska Colorado Idaho Connecticut United States Dist of Col New Mexico Washington Oregon North Carolina Kentucky Florida Virginia Kansas Georgia Minnesota Arkansas South Dakota Iowa Maryland Delaware Maine Tennessee Louisiana South Carolina West Virginia Oklahoma Indiana Utah Mississippi Vermont Alabama Missouri North Dakota Pennsylvania Wisconsin Michigan Montana Alaska Ohio Wyoming New Hampshire 9th to 12th Grade (No Completion)5th to 8th GradeLess than 5th GradeNo School

Number of Residents Ages 18 to 64 Who Speak English Poorly or Not at All by State, 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Number of U.S. Residents Ages 18 to 64 Who Speak English Poorly or Not at All by Level of Education Completed, 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey 3,997,270 1,883,319 2,459, , , , , ,500,000 3,000,000 4,500,000 Less than 9th Grade 9th to 12th Grade (No Diploma) High SchoolSome College AssociateBachelor'sGraduate or Professional U.S. = 8,339,734

Number of Residents Ages 18 to 64 with Just a High School Diploma or Less in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage* by State, 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey * 200% of Poverty Level

Number of U.S. Residents Ages 18 to 64 in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage by Education Level Completed, 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey 4,919,256 8,050,077 15,801,210 7,144,389 2,030,729 2,765, , ,000,000 6,000,000 9,000,000 12,000,000 15,000,000 18,000,000 Less than 9th Grade 9th to 12th Grade (No Diploma) High School Diploma Some CollegeAssociatesBachelor'sGraduate and Professional U.S. = 28,770,543

Proportion of Residents Ages 18 to 64 in Families with Incomes Below a Living Wage Within Each Education Attainment Category, 2005 Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey 61.0% 46.5% 29.9% 17.5% 14.5% 8.9% 5.5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Less than 9th Grade 9th to 12th Grade (No Diploma) High School Diploma Some CollegeAssociatesBachelor'sGraduate and Professional

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey: Public Use Microdata Samples 19,524,074 14,494,128 8,339,734 Target Population (Exclusive Categories) 138,127, to 64 Year Olds, 2005 Target Population 42,357,936 (23.5%) ESL: High School Diploma Only or Less – No or Poor Ability to Speak English Not Prepared for College or Work: High School Diploma Only, In Families Earning Less than a Living Wage (Not ESL) No High School Diploma or Equivalent (Not ESL) Note: Incarcerated population not separated out. All of the above categories include incarcerated individuals. Adult Education and Literacy: Target Population in 2005

Sources: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey: Public Use Microdata Samples Note: Incarcerated population not separated out. All of the above categories include incarcerated individuals. Adult Education and Literacy: Target Populations as a Percentage of all 18 to 64 Year Olds by State, 2005

Incarceration Rate in the U.S. – Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction Per 100,000 Residents, 1980 to 2005 Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Census Bureau There were 1,525,924 prisoners in 2005

Incarceration Rate by State in 2005 – Prisoners Under Federal and State Jurisdiction Per 100,000 Residents Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Census Bureau

Educational Attainment of 18 to 64 Year Olds – Total U.S. Population vs. the Prison Population Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics 2002 data, US Census Bureau 2005 data 4.5% 9.6% 29.3% 22.6% 34.0% 12.3% 31.6% 43.1% 10.1% 2.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Less than 9th Grade9th to 12th Grade, No Diploma High School Graduate (Includes Equivalency) Some College No Degree College Graduate or More Total PopulationPrison Population

Performance ABE Participation (data available only for state administered adult education programs) GED Production College Participation of Non-Traditional Adults

Enrollment in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1,000 Residents with Less than a High School Diploma by Age-Group, 2005 (United States) Source: US Department of Education * 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled to 24*25 to 4445 and Older

Enrollment of 16 to 24 Year Olds in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1, to 24 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005 Source: US Department of Education * 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled

Enrollment of 25 to 44 Year Olds in State-Administered Adult Education Programs per 1, to 44 Year Olds with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005 Source: US Department of Education Minnesota Florida Utah South Carolina Connecticut Arkansas Illinois California New MexicoWashington Hawaii New York North Carolina MaineAlaska Nebraska United States Georgia Rhode Island New Hampshire Missouri Wisconsin Delaware South Dakota New Jersey KentuckyTennessee Pennsylvania Maryland Iowa Dis of Col Oregon Wyoming Indiana Mississippi North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Massachusetts West Virginia Idaho Montana Virginia MichiganVermontLouisiana KansasArizona Colorado Texas Nevada Alabama

GEDs Awarded Per 1,000 Adults with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent by Age-Group, 2005 (United States) Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data * 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled to 24*25 to 3435 to 4950 and Older

GEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 16 to 24 per 1,000 Adults Ages 16 to 24* with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005 Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data * 16 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma or equivalent, not enrolled

Source: GED Testing Service, US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data GEDs Awarded to Adults Ages 25 to 34 per 1,000 Adults Ages 25 to 34 with Less than a High School Diploma or Equivalent, 2005

Percent of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students (16 to 18 Years Old), from 1990 to 2005 Source: GED Testing Service %

Distribution (%) of GEDs Awarded by Age-Group, 1990 and 2005 Source: GED Testing Service % Age

Change in the Percentage of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students (Ages 16 to 18) by State from 1990 and 2005 Source: GED Testing ServiceNote: 1990 data not available for CA, HI, ID, IL, LA, NV, WV

Enrollment of 25 to 49 Year Olds as a Percentage of 25 to 49 Year Olds with a High School Diploma But No College (2005) Sources: NCES, IPEDS Enrollment Survey; US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

The Importance of the “Re-Entry” Pipeline and the Ability of the U.S. to Remain Globally Competitive

Current Educational Attainment, Educational Attainment in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and the Best Performing Countries in 2025 (United States) 37.4% 41.9% 45.9% 55.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Current Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2005) Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production and Net Migration Percentage Needed to Reach Best-Performing Countries by 2025

How Can the U.S. Reach International Competitiveness? Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration, and Best Performance* on the Student Transition and Completion Measures 63,127,642 60,790,073 7,347,209 3,270,900 1,265,118 7,045,932 1,255,167 40,605, Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) Total Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 If All of the Above Reaching Best Performance In Rates of Degree Production Per FTE Student Reaching Best Performance In College-Going Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance In High School Graduation Rates by 2025 Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College- Educated Residents Additional Degrees from Population Growth Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 with Current Rate of Production Millions Performance Measures Are Cumulative and Are Based on Traditional College-Going Patterns * Best performance is the average of the top three states.

Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Aged Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in More than 30 States 2,788 8,898 10,875 23,542 24,741 25,326 28,659 34,547 37,706 39,436 44,757 47,420 53,574 53,995 62,332 65,853 74, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,504 1,333, ,000600,000900,0001,200,0001,500,000 Indiana Missouri Connecticut Maryland Wyoming Georgia Hawaii Montana Idaho Maine Wisconsin New Mexico Michigan Oregon Oklahoma Alaska West Virginia Alabama South Carolina Ohio Mississippi Arizona North Carolina Kentucky Arkansas Louisiana Nevada Tennessee New Jersey California Florida Texas In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states can’t close the gap with even best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline – getting older adults back into the education system and on track to attaining college degrees.

The Benefits

Average Personal Income of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Level of Education Completed, 2005 $91,797 $107,353 $66,919 $54,532 $37,716 $34,644 $27,367 $22,319 $19,095 $18,031 $17,189 $15,840 $14,894 $15,531 $0$30,000$60,000$90,000$120,000 Doctorate degree Professional degree Masters degree Bachelors degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High school graduate, or GED 12th grade, no diploma 11th grade 10th grade 9th grade 5th-8th grade 1st-4th grade No school completed Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey

Average Personal Income of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Level of Education Completed, 2005 $91,797 $107,353 $66,919 $54,532 $37,716 $34,644 $27,367 $0$30,000$60,000$90,000$120,000 Doctorate degree Professional degree Masters degree Bachelors degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High school graduate, or GED 12th grade, no diploma 11th grade 10th grade 9th grade 5th-8th grade 1st-4th grade No school completed Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey If these residents were to complete high school or equivalent, and the additional earnings associated it, the U.S. would experience a $191 billion increase in personal income

Average Personal Income of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Level of Education Completed, 2005 $91,797 $107,353 $66,919 $54,532 $37,716 $34,644 $0$30,000$60,000$90,000$120,000 Doctorate degree Professional degree Masters degree Bachelors degree Associate degree Some college, no degree High school graduate, or GED 12th grade, no diploma 11th grade 10th grade 9th grade 5th-8th grade 1st-4th grade No school completed Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey If these residents were to complete an associates degree, and the additional earnings associated it, the U.S. would experience a $848 billion increase in personal income

AK AZ AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH NM TN TX UT WV WI WY 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 $45,000 $2,0003,0004,0005,000 Personal Income Per Capita, 2003 Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita, 2003 The Relationship Between Personal Income and Tax Revenues Correlation = 0.84

Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma or Higher The Relationship Between Education and Health State Health Index, United Health Foundation Correlation = 0.76 AK AZ AR DE GA HI IL IN IA KS LA ME MD MA MT NE NV NJ NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD VT VA WA US AL CA CO CT FL ID KY MI MN MS MO NH NM TN TX UT WV WI WY

Changes in Education Attainment First Time in History—U.S. Losing Ground to Other Countries in Educational Attainment of Workforce Increasing Demand for Higher Levels of Education Within the Workforce, Particularly in Occupations that Pay a Living Wage Shifting Demographics Within the Workforce— Race/Ethnic Populations Growing at Highest Rates Are the: –Least Educated –Most Likely to Drop Out of High School –Least Successful in College

Large Target Populations Are Underserved 25.4 million Age have not completed high school (or equivalent) 8.1 million Have dropped out before 9th grade—a population for which the GED is even more difficult to attain 28.8 million With a high school diploma or less are not earning living wages—an indication they are not succeeding in the workforce and probably not prepared to enter college 8.3 million Age with high school diplomas or less have difficulty speaking English or speak no English at all 42.4 million Total in need of adult basic education and literacy (all combined, accounting for residents in two or more of the above categories) 1.5 million Included in this group are incarcerated in state and federal prisons

Large Segment of Population Being Left Behind 278 of 1,000 Residents Age with Less than a High School Diploma Enrolled in State-Administered Adult Education Programs in 2005—Only 107 of 1,000 Residents Age with Less than a High School Education Enrolled States Vary Dramatically in Levels of Service to These Residents 85 GEDs Awarded to Residents Age per 1,000 Residents Age with Less than a High School Diploma in 2005—Ratio Drops to: –15 per 1,000 Awarded to Residents Age with Less than a High School Diploma, and –5 per 1,000 Awarded to Residents Age 35-49—Indicates the Longer Residents Are Out of the Education Pipeline, the Less Likely They Are to Return (continued)

Large Segment of Population Being Left Behind (continued) Ratios of GED Production Vary Dramatically by State –Range per 1,000 Residents Age with Less than a High School Diploma: From 340 in North Dakota To 31 in Delaware –For Residents Age 25-34: From 39 in Alaska To 6 in California (continued)

Large Segment of Population Being Left Behind (continued) In Past 15 Years, GED Administered to Larger Numbers of Individuals Age 16-18—Indicates Increasing Usage of GED in Many States by High School Age Students as an Alternative to Traditional Completion Participation Rates in Postsecondary Education of Non-Traditional Age Students Still Low in U.S.—Only 14% of Adults Age Who Have Completed High School Enrolled in 2005 Varies Dramatically by State, from 40% in Arizona to Only 8% in Louisiana

Improvements in Adult Education and Literacy Are Vital for U.S. to Remain Competitive With Current Levels of College Degree Production— Combined with Ability to Import College Graduates from Other Countries—U.S. Will not Reach Attainment Levels of Top Countries U.S. Will Still Fall Short Even if Every State System of Higher Education Performs at the Level of the Top States at Each Stage of the Traditional Education Pipeline –High School Completion –Directly Going to College –College Completion (continued)

Improvements in Adult Education and Literacy Are Vital for U.S. to Remain Competitive (continued) U.S. Cannot Succeed Without Better Educating Older Adults Who: –Dropped Out of High School, or –Completed High School but Did Not Go to College Especially True in Many of the States, Including Several of the Largest and Most Diverse (e.g., Texas, Florida, California, and New Jersey)

Tangible Benefits to Increasing Levels of Education of Those Who Fell Out of Education System Increased Personal Incomes that Benefit Individuals and Tax Base—at Levels that Would More than Pay for Any Public Investment in Adult Education and Literacy Ample Evidence that More Educated Residents Live Healthier Lives and Are Much Less Likely to Be Incarcerated