Renewables: Choices and opportunity costs Prof. David Elliott The Open University

UK Energy Research Centre- MARKAL UK electricity scenarios for 2050 A range of possible energy mixes…

UK Electricity Mix Marsh/FES, 2005

UK Electricity Mix Marsh/FES,2005

Potential % of overall UK electricity supply in 2050 Onshore wind8-11% Offshore wind18-23% Wave/Tidal12-14% Biomass9-11% PV solar6-8% TOTAL53-67% Based on overall likely level of supply of TWh in 2050 Source: DTI/Carbon Trust ‘Renewables Innovation Review’ 2004

New EU Directive - 20% of total energy from renewables by 2020 BERR’s Renewable Energy Consultation suggested that by 2020 renewables might provide 15% of Primary energy as follows : 32% of electricity, 14% of heat, 10% of transport fuel Then the new UK Renewable Energy Strategy (2009) said by 2020 renewables could supply around: 30% of electricity, 12% of heat 10% of transport fuel Gas 29% What do others say?

Source: Redpoint, Trilemma, Cambridge University (2008) ‘Implementation of EU 2020 Renewable Target in the UK Electricity Sector: Renewable Support Schemes,’ report for DBERR Extended RO37 Electricity Scenario- 37% renewables

‘Oil Crunch’ Report, from the Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security, 2008 Renewables supply c. 50% of electricity, c. 27% of heat, c.10% of transport fuel and, overall, c. 20% of Primary energy by 2020 Oil Crunch Energy Scenario 374TWh

Energy Watch ‘high’ scenario- 4,45GW of (non hydro) renewables globally by % share of final total energy demand, 62% of global electricity ( Energy Watch 2008 )

Phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050 and nuclear power by 2025, leading to 33% reductions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and 100% by INforSE visions

What’s stopping it?

The UK has its own special problem The Renewables Obligation (versus Feed In Tariffs) In 2005/6 the RO cost consumers 3.2/p/kWh, whereas in 2006 the German Feed In Tariff only cost consumers 2.6/p/kWh (Ernst and Young 2008) Germany has 25GW of wind capacity in place so far, the UK 3.7 GW