Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven Spatial proximity and distance travelled: Commuting versus non-commuting trips in Flanders Dr. Kobe Boussauw Geography Department - Ghent University - Ghent, Belgium

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven 1.Introduction –research project on the mutual relationship between mobility and spatial development, with a regional case study on the Flanders and Brussels region (northern Belgium) –sustainability of spatial structure is assessed in relation to travel behaviour with regard to: –influencing travel behaviour through planning (traditional approach but generally not leading to very impressive results) –resilience of the spatial- economic system for rising transport costs (peak oil)

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven 2.Commute energy performance indicator –inspired by Newman and Kenworthy (1989) (density versus energy consumption in world cities) –acts as a proxy for the level of sustainability of part of overall travel patterns relative to the location of residence –links are expected with modal shares, but also with intermediary aspects of spatial proximity that are influencing trip lengths –data-driven approach: availability of commuter data is good (based on the very inclusive 2001-census) –residence-based mapped results: next slide

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven

3.Findings regarding commute energy performance –important regional variations are noticed –almost all variance (90%) is explained by trip length (travel mode = second order, e.g. train commuters travel above average distances while cyclists only cover very short distances) –proximity between housing and jobs is paramount, especially in the sphere of influence of Brussels-Antwerp –there are links with residential density and spatial mix –some motorways have induced long distance commuting –some rather unorganized urban structures show low commute- energy levels

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven 4.Beyond commuting: A residential location model based on spatial proximity indicators –aim: explaining overall length of individual daily travel patterns (as a proxy for sustainability) based on characteristics of spatial proximity –based on residence-based sample data (2007) on all daily trips –by combining these data in an econometric model we can gain understanding on the additional traffic volume that will be generated by developing a new housing unit, depending on the location –model results can be mapped and can be used in planning practice –important precondition: from literature we know that the influence of spatial characteristics on travel patterns is actually very limited (however, explained variance (R²) can be raised significantly by adding non-spatial socio-economic variables...)

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven 5.Variables –dependent variable: distance travelled at a random day by each respondent (N = 7273) –independent variables: –accessibility –residential popu- lation density –proximity of facilities –spatial diversity –job density –minimum commuting distance –simple control variables (age, gender, education, income) –all independent variables are measured at 3 different aggregation levels (circles with r = 1 km, r = 4 km and r = 8 km around the respondent’s residence), yielding 18 independent variables

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven 5.Model structure and results –significant results: –reverse model (simulation):

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven Spatial distribution of the estimated generated mobility per capita based on characteristics of spatial proximity

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven 6.General conclusions –in terms of commuting energy performance, distance between housing and jobs is paramount –when extending the analysis to all travel (which is mainly non- commuting), the spatial distribution of jobs looses importance –residential density, proximity of facilities and spatial diversity seem to be determining, making the most urbanized areas the most resilient and sustainable residential locations in terms of daily travel –relationships between built environment and actual sustainability of travel patterns are weak –however, under the assumption of continuously rising oil prices, spatial proximity will gain importance which will favour compact development and the use of agglomeration effects

Kobe Boussauw – 15/12/2011 – Spatial Planning in Flanders: political challenges and social opportunities – Leuven 7.Issues that are not yet assessed / pathways for further research –modelling of mobility production levels of several types of destination classes (e.g. transport energy performance of schools, shops,...) –taking into account detailed energy consumption levels depending on transport mode and traffic conditions –disaggregation of groups (e.g. jobs by economic sector, households by family composition,...)