To recap… What are some of the consequences of global warming for Africa and the Arctic?

Learning Objectives K- Know what impacts GW is having on our oceans U- Understand the range of IPCC scenarios for GW S- Recognise key terms such as tipping point and apply to GW issues

Recently… We have recently assessed the impacts on 2 areas Africa/Arctic we are going to look at today the impacts of the worlds oceans and the future gas emission issues

Flooding scenarios A worst-case scenario of a 15m rise in sea level by 2100 would put many of the world’s great cities in danger including London, New York and Tokyo To reach this estimate the following calculations were made Melting of W.Antarctic ice sheet = 5 m rise Complete Greenland ice sheets melt = 7 m rise Collapse and melting of world’s glacier systems = 2 m rise Thermal expansion of ocean = 1 m rise

Flooding Scenarios We are not safe here in the UK- many parts of the East of the UK are at risk Name some places on the map that are at risk of flooding

Flooding Scenarios Other vulnerable areas include the worlds large river deltas Holland Small, low lying island usually in the Pacific and Indian Oceans

Flooding vulnerability Think back to disaster risk equation Many of the people living on these islands are vulnerable and little capacity to cope Islands are so small no where to flee Prone to natural disasters Rapidly growing populations Vulnerability of groundwater contamination from sea water

Predicting future sea level change? Predicting eustatic sea-level rise is complex! Reasons why include… It is difficult to estimate future greenhouse emissions and effects Difficult to predict how the world’s nations will respond in the future- ‘business as usual’ approach or sustainable approach to development? Difficult to accurately predict thermal expansion and melting of ice sheets

Predicting future gas emissions Predicting gas emissions is just as complex! Reasons why include… The level and nature of economic development, particularly in countries like India and China, will largely determine this. What degree of international action will be taken to reduce gas emissions

IPCC The International Panel on Climate Change was set up in 1988 to collect evidence on climate change The IPCC has attempted to predict 4 different scenarios regarding greenhouse emissions. It is hoped that by educating and informing people of these scenarios we will avoid tipping point

Key word: Tipping Point The tipping point refers to a point beyond which the earth cannot recover from the effects of carbon emissions even with drastic action. Some scientists believe we are close to reaching tipping point, others believe we have passed it, whilst some think there is still time to rescue the situation!

IPCC- scenarios Each of the 4 scenarios considers different possibilities about how global warming might work out. Read your handout and be prepared for questions!

IPCC- scenarios In pairs decide which of the scenarios is A) produces the highest levels of greenhouse emissions- why? B) Produces the most environmentally-friendly society- why? C) Produces the lowest levels of greenhouse gas emissions D) Is the one you think the world should adopt? E) Which one do you think the world will adopt?

Task- Homework Attempt using your knowledge from this lesson to answer the exam style questions Whatever you don’t complete in class is to be done at home!

So to finish answer our Learning Objectives! What impacts is GW having on our oceans? What are the range of IPCC scenarios for GW? Define the term tipping point and how does it apply to GW issues?