Mind the gap And all the other theories besides Kathleen Maher, Jon Peddie Research

Jon Peddie Research  Founded in our 20th year  Focus and emphasis on Digital Technology, Multimedia, and Graphics  Consulting and market research - Advisor to industry leaders and financiers  Bi-weekly report, various Digital Technology Market Studies The Business of Multimedia and Graphics

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And what happens in between? Why do good ideas fail? Why do good ideas succeed?

There are a few theories

Why do good ideas succeed?  Communication  The influence of social networks An inherently democratic process. Cool hunting Seeding products The Diffusion of Innovation, Everett Rodgers, 1962 “The Cool Hunt” by Malcolm Gladwell

Why do good ideas succeed? The process is dependent on the orderly progression of information (Visionaries aren’t going to convince the late majority)

A funny thing happened on the way to success Geoffrey Moore’s Crossing the Chasm What happens when disruptive technology arrives?

The Hype Cycle Dealing with technology The Internet changes everything … or a lot anyway

Putting it all together Source: Freescale

Why do good ideas fail?  Define failure – Is it a matter of time? – Degree of success? How can you cross the Chasm if you don’t know where it is? Tara Hunt, The Whuffie Factor, HorsePigCow.com

The Practicality Gap (do we really need another curve?) Life in front of the Gap It’s not just the people and it’s not just the product, it’s the system

The Practicality Gap in Practice Here’s where it gets tricky

Play Along

MP3 Creative RIO Compaq Samsung Players Plays for Sure WMP Napster MP3.com RealAudio LiquidAudio MP3.com Creative Samsung Archos SanDisk Players iTunes iPhone

Play Along ReplayTV TiVO Computer- based products ReplayTV sued Apple TV` Independent STBs for home networks OpenCable Tivo DirectTV Comcast PVR DirectTV EchoStar add PVR Cable follows C-Cube NEC SigmaDesigns DishTV

Common Themes What stays the same?  Communication  Ease of Use  Distribution  Appropriate price What’s different  Information and Innovation spreads much faster  Smaller more vocal communities Understanding where the gap is and what’s required becomes more complicated

Pigs Don’t Fly Kathleen Maher Jon Peddie Research