Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April OC Vulnerability Studies for Legal Sectors Methodological Aspects Prof. Dr. Tom Vander Beken Europol, The Hague,28 April 2003

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April Overview 1. Background 2. Organised crime research in general 3. Research on licit markets 4. MAVUS proposal

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April Background › Descriptive reports on OC needed improvement (CRIMORG 55 & 19) › Action Plan to convert the OCSR into an annual strategic report for planning purposes (CRIMORG 133) : › future oriented (OCR)

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April Background › EU Risk assessment Methodology for OC: 1. Organised Crime Groups 2. Counter Measures 3. Illicit Market Scans 4. Licit Market Scans › An urgent need for a reliable and common methodology for (vulnerability) studies of sectors (EUROPOL 2002)

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April Organised Crime Research in general a. Ministery for Justice (2001) Reporting on Organised crime. From Description to Explanation in the Belgian Annual Reports on Organised Crime (IRCP, 2001) b. Hippokrates project (EU, ): › Developing a Methodology for Measuring Organised Crime in the EU. Feasibility study of a risk-based methodology across the European Union (IRCP, Transcrime & Swedish Council for Crime Prevention)

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April Research on Licit Markets a. General b. Terms of reference c. Conceptual framework d. Proposed (tentative) methodology

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April a. General › Project « measuring the vulnerability of legal economic sectors for organised crime » › : development of a methodology › : case study of the diamond sector › Research partners › IRCP (criminal law & criminology) › Antwerp University (economy) › Principal: Belgian Federal Office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs (OSTC)

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April b. Terms of Reference › “Vulnerability study”: identification of crime opportunities that might be exploited by OC › Focus on OC task environment, not on OC capacity › Task environment = the legal market › How? Analysing the external environment

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April c. Conceptual framework › Terms & Concepts: › Organised crime › Sector (meso) › Cluster (macro) › Business Process (micro) › Conceptual framework: the cluster model › ‘spectrum of enterprise’ (SMITH) › ‘diamond model’ (PORTER)

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April d. Tentative Methodology (1) 1. Sector analysis: economical approach of sector and market players (meso level ) › product, market structure, international position, price setting, economic situation…

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April d. Tentative methodology (2) 2. Cluster analysis: approaching the broader context of the sector (macro level) › Environmental scanning (PEST) › Cluster analysis (key actors): › Local, regional, (inter)national governments › Financial, legal players › National related and supporting sectors › Foreign related and supporting sectors › Social and other organisations › Relations outside the cluster (coincidence factor) › Crime

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April d. Tentative Methodolology (3) 3. Reference Models: identification of a chain of ‘business processes’ as a model for business entities in the sector (micro level) 4.Width and depth scan: analysis of the information from macro, meso and micro level on the basis of a diagram of indicators: 1. Illicit Market 2. Nature of the Product 3. Viability of the Entity 4. Entry Barriers 5. International character

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April d. Tentative Methodology (4) › 5. Conclusions & recommandations › On the methodological aspects: › Cluster model = usable concept in sector scanning › Width scan = feasable intrument › Depth scan requires more methodological research › On the case study: the methodology allows to draw meaningfull and relevant conclusions on the basis of the vulnerability profile of the different groups of indicators

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April MAVUS proposal › Method for and Assessment of Vulnerability of Sectors › IRCP Project proposal AGIS-programme › Research Partners: › Transcrime (Italy) › Max-Planck Institute (Germany) › Cardiff University (UK) › Amsterdam University (NL) › Europol › Time frame: 2 year

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April a. Background › Need for vulnerability studies of licit sectors on two levels: OCR & crime proofing › New methodology for OCR requires licit market scans › Vulnerability studies as the necessary framework for crime and fraud proofing › Few existing work on vulnerability studies › Illicit sector scan

Universiteitstraat 4, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium T +32 (0) , F +32 (0) Prof. Dr. T. Vander Beken – OC Vulnerability studies for legal sectors – The Hague, 28 April b. Terms of Reference › Structure: Advisory Body, Steering Committee & Research groups › Phase 1: Methodology for licit sector scans › Phase 2: Sector analysis (transport, waste disposal, intellectual property & human organs) › Phase 3: Discussion & end conclusions + work out a concept for illicit sector scanning