IR-sensing Advanced Power Strips; Weatherization for Existing Multi-family homes Research and Evaluation Subcommittee Josh Rushton March 4, 2016

Agenda Seeking subcommittee feedback on two items: [10:00-10:30] IR-sensing Advanced Power Strips: Change of research direction [10:30-11:30] Weatherization for Existing Multi-family homes: New research strategy 2

IR-Sensing APS 3 – IR-Sensing APS

Overview IR-sensing Advanced Power Strips measure summary: – Applies to residential home entertainment settings – Category is Provisional – Status is Active – Sunset is August, 2016 Issue: Current RTF Research Plan does not reflect major changes in sponsor’s research plansRTF Research Plan Questions for the group: – Is currently planned ETO research sufficient for Provisional? – Do you know of other relevant research in the pipeline? 4 – IR-Sensing APS

Measure application IR-sensing APS in Home entertainment settings – IR sensor monitors remote-control signals; – After 1-2 hour period of inactivity, APS will power down controlled devices (user is given chance to over-ride) – Typical controlled devices include TV, DVD player, and IR- controlled stereo equipment APS units have “stereo mode” to disable control function for several hours Controlled devices should not include set-top box, cable modem, DVR, some game consoles – Not appropriate for use with devices that have radio- frequency remote controls Programs are interested in multiple delivery channels – Direct install, mail-by-request, give-away, retail 5 – IR-Sensing APS

Existing RTF Research Plan (from September, 2015) Sponsor no longer planning to pursue this research Recruitment – Previous Energy Saver Kit recipients directed to prequalifying survey – Must have a TV with at least one controllable accessory; no 7+ day vacation plans during study period – Participation incentive is $75 plus the APS Field sample size: 140 units – 70 units from each of two vendors (Embertec and TrickleStar) – Random assignment to pre/post and post/pre groups Survey to check for pre/post changes in connected devices or usage patterns kWh consumption metered pre and post – Watts-up meters record at 1-minute intervals, no time stamps – Metering periods: ≈ 4 weeks pre and 4 weeks post Take-away: Pretty solid plan for estimating savings of properly-installed APS unit; need other data for installation and removal rates; punt on some seasonal and demographic concerns 6 – IR-Sensing APS

Current ETO Research Plan Recruitment – Multi-family properties chosen from city of Portland (limitation due to fire code legalities) – Tenants in selected buildings invited to opt into study – Participation incentive: up to six movie passes, plus IR-sensing APS device Study design – Participants randomly assigned to treatment/control groups – Control group gets dumb power strip for metering period, APS at end of study Field sample size: ≈ 90 APS and ≈ 90 control units – 45 APS units from each of two vendors (Embertec and TrickleStar) – Anticipate ≈ participating multifamily properties – Anticipate rolling sample from ≈ April through August Survey data used to check for understand differences in connected devices between treatment and control groups Kill-O-Watt meters record cumulative kWh, ≈ 2 weeks for each group 7 – IR-Sensing APS

Is currently planned ETO research sufficient for Provisional? – I.e., is it okay for evaluating program savings and moving the measure closer to proven? – Do we expect multi-family applications to be sufficiently representative of future programs? – Sample size? Metering duration? Others? Other relevant research in the pipeline? 8 – IR-Sensing APS Questions for the group

Multi-family Weatherization 9 – Multifamily Weatherization

Overview Measure summary Research needs Research Strategy – Objectives – Straw-man approach Likely to succeed as advertised? Estimated cost range matches outlined research? Recommended modifications? – Is there a better path? 10 – Multifamily Weatherization

Measure Summary Application: – Low-rise multi-family buildings – Must have electric heating system (resistance, heat pump, or DHP + ER) Category: Planning Status: Under Review – Pending Research Strategy, updated savings Sunset: March, – Multifamily Weatherization

Research needs: Savings Potential Electric Resistance-Heated MF Buildings – Regional Wx savings potential ~ 250 aMW* – CAT proposal: Identify research needed to prove out Wx for MF buildings with ER heat; develop Planning estimates using existing calibration DHP-heated MF buildings – RBSA found ~ 1% of MF units had DHPs – Little immediate potential, but a lot of electric-resistance buildings could convert to DHPs – CAT proposal: Develop Wx for MF buildings with DHP as Small Saver for now using existing calibration Reassess DHP penetration at sunset; Move to planning, provisional, or proven as warranted Heat Pump-Heated MF Buildings – Regional Wx savings potential ~ 3 aMW* – CAT proposal: Develop Wx for MF buildings with HP-heated spaces as Small Saver using existing calibration Research Strategy focuses on buildings with electric resistance heat. No research required for Small Saver measures * Source: 7 th Plan and RBSA 12

Research needs: Knowledge gap Need data that provides direct insight into change in energy consumption, pre- and post-weatherization, in multifamily buildings – Need to know the slope, ∆VBDD/∆SEEM Existing calibration sought to get overall SEEM heating kWh (averaged across multiple buildings) to equal overall VBDD heating kWh – No pre/post data, no insight into ∆VBDD/∆SEEM Existing calibration tested against 22 relevant RBSA buildings – Results (next slide) look encouraging but confidence interval is wide and test sample not pre/post 13 – Multifamily Weatherization

Calibration Testing Results (Initial 8 test sites only – full 22 coming soon!) 14 – Multifamily Weatherization

Research Strategy: Objectives Savings estimates should be closely tied to observed changes in energy consumption, pre- and post-weatherization, in multifamily buildings For a sample of multifamily buildings, need to collect, pre- and post-weatherization: – Energy consumption data sufficient to fit VBDD models – Building/site characteristics sufficient to create SEEM models 15 – Multifamily Weatherization

Straw-man Approach: Sample Size To estimate the typical slope ∆VBDD/∆SEEM with 10% precision (and 90% confidence), sample target is 33 pre/post buildings Estimate based on standard sample mean calculation assuming coefficient of variation (CV) equal to 0.35 Relatively low CV chosen for two reasons: – Building-level VBDD estimates expected to be resistant to house-hold-specific noise – Slope values shouldn’t deviate wildly about the mean Expect building-level values for ∆VBDD/∆SEEM to mostly fall between 0.5 and 1.5 CAT doesn’t see a more rigorous way to anticipate study precision 16 – Multifamily Weatherization

Straw-man Approach: Sample Details Focus on buildings with electric-resistance heat Sampled buildings should have significant pre/post changes in Uo Include wide range of pre-case shell efficiencies Sample should include buildings East and West of the Cascades Seeking single calibration parameter that is representative with respect to pre-case Uo and geography – Not seeking separate calibration parameters that vary with Uo and/or geography 17 – Multifamily Weatherization

Straw-man Approach: Data Collection Billing data – At least 12 consecutive months, pre and post – Preferably 24 months pre Location (county or zip code) Building configuration and size Pre- and post-Wx building characteristics – Component U-factors and square footage (windows, walls, floors, attic) 18 – Multifamily Weatherization

Straw-man Approach: Analysis Billing analysis – Use billing analysis (VBDD) to estimate normalized annual heating energy for each building, pre and post – Pre/post change, each building: ∆VBDD = VBDD.pre – VBDD.post Engineering analysis – Run SEEM for each building using site-specific inputs for climate, component U-factors, and component square footage Do not anticipate site-specific data on internal gains or infiltration – Pre/post change, each building: ∆SEEM = SEEM.pre – SEEM.post Estimate average slope: – Ratio estimator is Sum(∆VBDD)/Sum(∆SEEM) – Result works as a realization rate for SEEM-based savings estimates for MF Wx measures 19 – Multifamily Weatherization

Straw-man Approach: Cost Need subcommittee feedback Currently indicated as $25K - $50K for data collection only 20 – Multifamily Weatherization

Discussion and Feedback Is feasible research likely to get us to better understanding? Is the approach reasonable? – Likely to succeed as advertised? – Does estimated cost range match outlined research? – Recommended modifications? Is there a better research path? 21 – Multifamily Weatherization

Additional Slides 22 – Additional Slides

What is a Research Strategy? Clarifies knowledge gaps in non-Proven measures Focuses on high-priority research objectives – What does the RTF need for the measure to be proven? – Anything researchers should pay special attention to? Outlines a straw-man approach to data collection and analysis – Demonstrates one feasible research path – Research Sponsors develop final Research Plan Sponsors can work with RTF staff to ensure plan addresses RTF needs RTF reviews final Research Plan later (at Provisional  Planning step) Calls out approaches that probably wouldn’t suffice (optional) Provides a rough cost estimate (based on straw-man approach) Research Strategies try to be BRIEF: Critical items shouldn’t get lost in a sea of helpful suggestions 23 – Additional Slides