Canadian International Council Ottawa City Hall October 15, 2015 John M. Curtis
Trade Agreements are both: Geopolitical – foreign policy Economic – structural (competitiveness, efficiency) 2
TPP began as a P-4 in 2004 US joined in 2009, changing the scope and objectives of the negotiations Canada, Mexico, and Japan joined the negotiations in Group that completed the negotiations on October 5 th numbered 12; China, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand and Taiwan not party to the agreement Ratification/implementation issues 3
No version yet; some leaks Overall, Agreement appears broad, but shallow Traditional elements included – tariff reductions/elimination (affecting preference margins); NTBs; services (including movement of persons); intellectual property; dispute settlement Innovative elements – electronic commerce; development (including capacity building); environment, labour standards 4
Minimally positive for Canada, USA (0.2/0.3% of GDP per year); other participants up to 1-1.5% of GDP per year) Negative impact (up to –0.5% of GDP per year) had we not signed on Overall, gains for agricultural sector (beef, wheat, canola, etc.), industrial inputs, business and transportation services, government procurement, losses for auto and supply management sectors. Consumers/taxpayers gain and lose! 5