The Arab Spring

Began January 2011 in Tunisia Mohamed Bouazizi Corruption rankings (Transparency International) – Tunisia 73: Morocco 80; Algeria and Egypt 112 (tied); Yemen 164; Libya 168; Age distribution – Egypt 33% younger than 14 years, Syria 35 % compare US 20%; Germany 13%) Lack of democratic input (Long standing regimes)

Outcomes Tunisia: President Ben Ali overthrown, new constitution, government elected Egypt: Mubarak ousted, Morsey elected and overthrown. al Sisi elected Libya: Gaddafi killed, Two rival governments claim power, continuing conflict Yemen: Abdullah Saleh ousted, continued civil violence Syria: Protracted Civil War. al-Assad remains Bahrain: Ongoing protests Kuwait, Oman implementing some political changes. Morocco, Jordan: constitutional reforms Protests in Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Mauritania, UAE.

Role of religious actors One Arab Spring? – The diversity in the MENA region key differences – Monarchical dynasties (Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Morocco) – Homogeneity (Egypt) vs. diverse identities (religious, linguistic, ethnic, tribal, clan) – Natural resources (oil haves and have nots) – Role of the military – Secular nature of government (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya) and religious standing (Saudi Arabia)

Role of Social Media Facebook and Twitter Revolutions Bypass government media censorship Organize spontaneously and without detection Facebook and Twitter Revolutions Bypass government media censorship Organize spontaneously and without detection

Tunisia Unemployment, Corruption, inflation, Ben Ali 23 years in power Tunisia: Ennahda party won 37% of popuar vote, 89 of 217 seats "We do not want a theocracy.” “We are not an Islamist party, we are an Islamic party.”

Egypt: Full Circle Revolution Muslim Brotherhood 77 of 156 parliamentary seats, Other Salafists 33 of 156 seats No presidential candidate received more than 25% of vote Mosey defeats Ahmed Shafik by 3.5% The State and religion Failure of inclusion, Significant reserve powers not checked by the judiciary Morsey deposed, al Sisi elected president, MB Outlawed Return to Status Quo?

The Arab Winter

Yemen Ali Abdullah Saleh, 33 years in power Mansour Hadi takes power after GCC brokered deal 2014 Federalisation agreement Houthis Shias, Southern rebels, al-Qaeda (AQAP, Ansar al Sharia)

Libya theoretically governed by a parliament House of Representatives in Tobruk elected 2014 parliament's control severely limited by the internal conflict Tripoli government

Syria 12.2 million People in Need of Humanitarian Assistance in Syria 5.5 million Children Affected 7.6 million Internally Displaced 3+ million Displaced to Neighboring Countries Over 200,000 deaths

Lebanon 20% of the population are refugees Rising rents pushing locals out of the market Increased unemployment and depressed wages Increased price of goods, introduction of vouchers into the economy Increased shortfall in services: water, electricity, health care Economic stagnation, lower tax revenues

What Went Wrong? Diverse causation Democratic Deficit, shared governance Political Socialization, Patterns of authoritarianism Removal of power structures unleashes tensions: Sunni/ Shi’ite, Islamist/ Secularist, Political Class conflict

International Community Middle East Cold War, Iran vs Saudi Arabia Salafi Jihadists, al-Qaeda, ISIS Passive response by powerful states

Green Movement Iran

Student Protests July, 1999 Closure of a reformist newspaper Association of Combatant Clerics Raid on student dormitories by Ansar e Hezbollah sparks six days of protests 1200 – 1400 detained, 70 disappeared Guardian Council veto power unchanged, Thought crime law, ban on contact with foreign parties, media, government

Mohammed Khatami Reformist theologian and politician President 1997 – 2005, 70% of the vote Free market, freedom of speech, better diplomatic relations Dialogue of civilizations

Mahmud Amadinejad Mayor of Tehran President 2005 – % of the vote against Rafsanjani Polarising figure internationally Support for Nuclear Program ‘Second Cultural Revolution’ Strained relations with Supreme Leader

Mir Hossein Mousavi “The Green Path of New Hope” to institutionalize social justice, equality and fairness, freedom of expression, to root out corruption and to speed up Iran's stagnant process of privatization

2009 Presidential Election Ahmadinejad 62%, Mousavi 34% Charges of irregularities and fraud Guardian Council reviews 10% of votes finds no evidence of fraud

Suspicions Ahmadinejad won in Mousavi's hometown of Tabriz Ahmadinejad won in big cities that polled high for Mousavi Mehdi Karoubi won 1%. less than expected Results would have required a 2/3 shift in voting patterns from Reform to Conservative Slow announcement of results No hard evidence of Fraud

June 2009 Election Protests Anniversary of 1999 Protests Peaceful action turned violent after announcement of election results “Where is my vote” February 2010, attempts to stage protests in support of Arab revolutions met with government crackdown Civil Rights vs Regime Change Attempts to exploit the movement, US, Saudi, Expats

Petro Politics, Identity and Gender

Petro Politics Producers: Saudi 3, Iran 6, Iraq 7, UAE 8, Kuwait, 11, Qatar 18 Exporters: Saudi 1, Iran 3, Iraq 4, UAE 6, United States: Producer 1, Exporter 47 Oil prices 100$ to 50$ Fracking, Oil Glut, Russia

(OPEC) Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries "coordinate and unify petroleum policies" "ensure the stabilization of oil markets.“ Limited Cohesion Saudi Dominance, Higher prices could push developed countries to pursue alternative sources Oil quotas depress economies like Nigeria

US Saudi Relations US Military presence; Kuwait, Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq “Godless Communism” 1973 Oil Embargo 3$ to 12 $ OPEC recognizes its political and economic power Gulf War I 9/11, religious charities Iran MECW

Rentier State Vast oil wealth transforms society and economy A state that derives the bulk of its national revenue from natural resources State allocation of public services and absence of taxation limit political dissent

Identity Politics Sectarianism Nationalism Religion Secular Ethnicity Convergence of identity

Minorities Religious Minorities: Christians, Bahá'í, Druze, Yazidi, Mandean, Gnosticism, Yarsanism, Shabakism and Zoroastrianism Ethnic Minorities: Balochs, Pashtuns, Lurs, Mandaeans, Tats, Jews, Kurds, Somalis, Assyrians, Egyptian Copts, Armenians, Arameans, Azeris, Maltese, Circassians, Greeks, Turcomans, Shabaks, Yazidis, Georgians, Roma, Gagauz, Mhallami and Samaritans

Gender Politics Feminism in the MENA Western conceptions of women’s rights emphasis on individual autonomy, Islamic women’s rights advanced, with an emphasis on respect for family, religion, and community

Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia, 127 of 136 Women do not drive and must be accompanied by a related male in public Gained the right to vote in 2011

Iran One Million Signatures for the Repeal of Discriminatory Laws – Promotion of collaboration and cooperation for social change. – Identification of women’s needs and priorities. – Amplifying women’s voices. – Increasing knowledge, promoting democratic action. Crime and Punishment

GCC less formal dress code Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Lebanon observe more secular policies Subject to transition over time Full rights of citizenship

Beyond religious and culturalist debates Violence against women Access to education Employment Inheritance Participation in political processes Health Marriage

War in Syria ? 191,000 Killed and Counting

Belligerents Opposition Free Syrian Army Islamic Front Al Nusra Islamic State (ISIS) Kurds Peshmerga PKK Combined Joint Task Force U.S., Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Netherlands UK Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE Syrian Government Hezbollah Supported by Russia and Iran

From Protests to Civil War Protests March – July 2011 Damascus, Daraa, Aleppo April 2011: Concessions Lifting of Emergency laws, Limited conscription, more press freedoms, social services May 2011: Crackdown July – October, escalation of armed insurgence November: Civil War

Basher al Assad Unprepared for leadership role Detached from reality “Foreign terrorists” National Dialogue Conference 2014 Elections, 88% of the vote

Russia’s Role $1.5 billion in arms sales Historic ties Port of Tartus 2011, 2012 Veto UN resolution to sanction Assad Mediation 2013 Chemical Weapons negotiations

Islamic State (ISIS) DAESH (ad-Dawlah al-Islamiyah fil Iraq wa ash-Sham) Grew out of al Qaeda in Iraq, Rebranded 2010 Abu Bakr al Baghdadi 29 June 2014 Caliphate declared 8 Million live under ISIS control Vast resources of oil, water, wheat

Raqqa Capital of the Caliphate CVg

Kurdish Resistance Peshmerga, (Those Who Confront Death) Strength 200,000 Seek to establish unified Kurdisatn

Yazidi Genocide August 2014 Sinjar Massacre, 500 Killed 3,500 women sold into sex slavery 50,000 flee to Sinjar Mountains Siege broken by US airstrikes and Kurdish forces allowing most to escape Several hundred remain on Sinjar

Combined Joint Task Force U.S., Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Netherlands UK Containing ISIS advance Support Peshmerga 3,222 targets, 58 tanks, 184 Humvees, 673 fighting positions 980 buildings

Beyond the Middle East Two Way Migratory Patterns Jihadists in, Refugees out 3000 European Jihadists 123,000 Refugees Competing nationalisms