PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

DEFINING PUBLIC OPINION The aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population The aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population When polls show widespread agreement on an issue, consensus exists When polls show widespread agreement on an issue, consensus exists When theirs is a wide variety of differing ideas, divided opinion occurs When theirs is a wide variety of differing ideas, divided opinion occurs

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION How people acquire their political beliefs and values, party identification, through relationships with their families, friends, and co- workers How people acquire their political beliefs and values, party identification, through relationships with their families, friends, and co- workers

BIGGEST INFLUENCE? Most important early sources of political socialization are schools and family Most important early sources of political socialization are schools and family If your family does not view politics as important, children may receive very little political socialization If your family does not view politics as important, children may receive very little political socialization Greater exposure to political information may explain why young Americans are often more liberal than their parents on social issues Greater exposure to political information may explain why young Americans are often more liberal than their parents on social issues

PEER GROUPS Friendships and associations in peer groups impact your political attitudes Friendships and associations in peer groups impact your political attitudes Do you hold similar political feelings to your closest peers? Do you hold similar political feelings to your closest peers?

THE IMPACT OF THE MEDIA Media includes all newspapers, television, radio, and internet sources Media includes all newspapers, television, radio, and internet sources Greatly influences public opinion because the media informs the public about the issues and events of our times Greatly influences public opinion because the media informs the public about the issues and events of our times "Agenda-setting" effect "Agenda-setting" effect

NEW MEDIA New forms of media have supplanted older ones New forms of media have supplanted older ones A "Fairness Doctrine" existed between , which required radio and TV to present balanced views A "Fairness Doctrine" existed between , which required radio and TV to present balanced views No longer exists today No longer exists today

SOCIALIZATION THROUGH THE MEDIA Your source of media mainly strengthens your socialization, rather than changing it Your source of media mainly strengthens your socialization, rather than changing it Conservatives mainly watch Fox News because they are already conservative Conservatives mainly watch Fox News because they are already conservative Liberals watch MSNBC because they are already liberal Liberals watch MSNBC because they are already liberal

INFLUENCE OF POLITICAL EVENTS Certain attitudes occur at certain chronological ages, this is known as the lifestyle effect Certain attitudes occur at certain chronological ages, this is known as the lifestyle effect Older Americans tend to be more conservative Older Americans tend to be more conservative The experience of marriage and raising a family has a measurable conservatizing effect The experience of marriage and raising a family has a measurable conservatizing effect

GENERATIONAL EFFECT A long lasting effect of the events of a particular time on the political opinions of those who came of political age at that time A long lasting effect of the events of a particular time on the political opinions of those who came of political age at that time Political events we experience during our lifetime help shape our views and beliefs Political events we experience during our lifetime help shape our views and beliefs

FDR AND THE NEW DEAL Voters who grew up in the 1930s during the Great Depression were likely to form lifelong attachments to the Democratic Party Voters who grew up in the 1930s during the Great Depression were likely to form lifelong attachments to the Democratic Party

RICHARD NIXON, VIETNAM, &THE WATERGATE SCANDAL Combination of the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal created a widespread cynicism toward government Combination of the Vietnam War and the Watergate scandal created a widespread cynicism toward government

RONALD REAGAN AND THE 1980S The 1980s were a time of economic prosperity and it led many young people to identify with the Republican Party The 1980s were a time of economic prosperity and it led many young people to identify with the Republican Party

PRESIDENT OBAMA & THE 2008 CAMPAIGN The high levels of support that younger voters gave Barack Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign may lead to future good news for the Democratic Party The high levels of support that younger voters gave Barack Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign may lead to future good news for the Democratic Party

POLITICAL PREFERENCES AND VOTING BEHAVIOR Socioeconomic status, the value assigned to a person due to occupation or income, influences your political ideas Socioeconomic status, the value assigned to a person due to occupation or income, influences your political ideas People who share the same religion, race, gender, geographic region are likely to influence one another and have common political concerns People who share the same religion, race, gender, geographic region are likely to influence one another and have common political concerns

PARTY IDENTIFICATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES Party identification has been the most important determinant of voting behavior in national elections Party identification has been the most important determinant of voting behavior in national elections New voters (young voters) are likely to identify themselves as independent voters, although they may be more ready to identify with one of the major parties by their mid-thirties New voters (young voters) are likely to identify themselves as independent voters, although they may be more ready to identify with one of the major parties by their mid-thirties

EDUCATION Historically, having a college education tended to be associated with voting for Republicans Historically, having a college education tended to be associated with voting for Republicans Today, individuals with a postgraduate degree have voted predominantly for Democrats Today, individuals with a postgraduate degree have voted predominantly for Democrats That holds true for all except holders of MBA, they are more likely to vote Republican That holds true for all except holders of MBA, they are more likely to vote Republican

ECONOMIC STATUS Individuals with relatively low income levels tend to support government action to benefit the poor Individuals with relatively low income levels tend to support government action to benefit the poor Individuals with relatively high incomes tend to oppose government intervention in the economy Individuals with relatively high incomes tend to oppose government intervention in the economy

RELIGION Jewish voters tend to be liberal, both economically and culturally Jewish voters tend to be liberal, both economically and culturally Individuals reporting no religion are very liberal on social issues, but have mixed economic views Individuals reporting no religion are very liberal on social issues, but have mixed economic views

RELIGIOUS COMMITMENT Voters who are more devout, regardless of their church affiliation, tend to vote Republican Voters who are more devout, regardless of their church affiliation, tend to vote Republican Majority of Catholics who attend church regularly tend to vote Republican Majority of Catholics who attend church regularly tend to vote Republican In 2008, a slim majority of Catholics who were not regular churchgoers voted for Barack Obama In 2008, a slim majority of Catholics who were not regular churchgoers voted for Barack Obama

RACE AND ETHNICITY African Americans of all religions strongly support the Democratic Party African Americans of all religions strongly support the Democratic Party This was not the case until FDR and the New Deal of the 1930s This was not the case until FDR and the New Deal of the 1930s Asian Americans lean Democratic as well Asian Americans lean Democratic as well

MUSLIM-AMERICANS In 2000, George W. Bush received a majority of Muslim American because they shared his culturally conservative values In 2000, George W. Bush received a majority of Muslim American because they shared his culturally conservative values By 2010, they were now strongly Democratic voters By 2010, they were now strongly Democratic voters

HISPANIC AMERICANS Majority of Hispanics vote Democratic Majority of Hispanics vote Democratic Cuban Americans are typically Republican Cuban Americans are typically Republican Hispanics have drifted away from Republican Party due to their willingness to not consider immigration reforms Hispanics have drifted away from Republican Party due to their willingness to not consider immigration reforms

THE GENDER GAP Women are more likely than men to support the Democratic Party Women are more likely than men to support the Democratic Party More likely to oppose death penalty, more supportive of social welfare, and gay rights More likely to oppose death penalty, more supportive of social welfare, and gay rights

GEOGRAPHIC REGION The South has evolved into a Republican stronghold The South has evolved into a Republican stronghold Same goes for the Great Plains, Rocky Mountain States to trend Republican Same goes for the Great Plains, Rocky Mountain States to trend Republican The West Coast and Northeast favor the Democrats The West Coast and Northeast favor the Democrats

POLITICAL POLLING

SAMPLING TECHNIQUES Can interviews as few as a couple thousand people to "take the pulse" of the nation Can interviews as few as a couple thousand people to "take the pulse" of the nation The most important principle in creating an accurate poll is randomness The most important principle in creating an accurate poll is randomness

ACCURACY The Gallup organization typically interviews around 1500 individuals, with a 3% margin of error The Gallup organization typically interviews around 1500 individuals, with a 3% margin of error Polls can be accurate because people who take the time to respond are likely to actually vote Polls can be accurate because people who take the time to respond are likely to actually vote

PROBLEMS WITH POLLS Public opinion polls are just snapshots at that specific moment in time Public opinion polls are just snapshots at that specific moment in time Sampling errors can occur. For example, more women answer phones than men, some (college students, the poor) can't be as easily reached by phone Sampling errors can occur. For example, more women answer phones than men, some (college students, the poor) can't be as easily reached by phone

OTHER SAMPLING ISSUES Margin of error may be too high Margin of error may be too high How a question is phrased can dramatically change the outcome of a poll How a question is phrased can dramatically change the outcome of a poll Telemarketing...people often refuse to answer the call Telemarketing...people often refuse to answer the call Internet polling, not a random sample Internet polling, not a random sample