Willem A. Landman The evolution of seasonal forecasting in South Africa  Model/system development started in early 1990s –

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Presentation transcript:

Willem A. Landman

The evolution of seasonal forecasting in South Africa  Model/system development started in early 1990s – SAWS, UCT, UP, Wits (statistical forecast systems)  South African Long-Lead Forecast Forum  SARCOF started in 1997 – consensus through discussions  Late 1990s – started to use AGCMs and post- processing At SAWS (COLA T30, then ECHAM4.5) At UCT (HadAM3P) At UP/CSIR (CSIRO-II/III, then CCAM)  Global Forecasting Centre for Southern Africa – 2003  Objective multi-model forecast systems – 2008  Coupled model considerations – 2010 onwards

Statistical modelling

AGCMs at SAWS COLA T30 ECHAM4.5

DJF rainfall forecasts using RCM  Operational regional climate model forecast for southern Africa  ECHAM4.5-RegCM3

RCM - MOS MOS - SSTMOS - GCM RCM - SST

3x

New objective multi-model forecast Old subjective consensus forecast ECHAM4.5 (IRI) + CCAM (UP)

Coupled model work: SAWS

Crop and streamflow predictions

To summarize  Seasonal forecasting in South Africa since early 1990s  Model/system development (mostly focussed on operational forecast production) MOS RCMs Multi-models Coupled models Model skill has improved incrementally Simple applications models  International and national collaboration significant

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