IT’S A LIE! IT’S A FALSE LIE! - from the musical ‘The King and I’ by Rogers and Hammerstein

There are three kinds of untruth; Lies Damned Lies Statistics … by Mark Twain(?)

Statistical Literacy Statistics can be misleading Statistics can be misused Statistics can be falsified Statistics can be exaggerating

Example #1 Will it be correct to claim that 16-year-olds are safer drivers than people in their twenties, and that octogenarians are very safe based on the information given in the following graph? Why, or why not?

Example #1

Example #2 Based on the following information, if Alaska airline advertisement is claiming that they are the airline with the #1 customer satisfaction, would you agree? Why, or why not?

Example #2

Example #3 Columnist George Will wrote in the Washington Post in 1993 that "... the 10 states with the lowest per pupil spending included four — North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah — among the 10 states with the top SAT scores... New Jersey has the highest per pupil expenditures, an astonishing $10,561… [Its] rank regarding SAT scores? 39th."

Example #3 Does this mean that spending more on education makes students worse off?

Example #3 The results are more likely due to differing SAT participation rates in the states (Colleges in North Dakota and other states require the ACT rather than the SAT for college admissions). The students who take the SAT in North Dakota include many who plan to apply to elite out-of-state colleges.

Example #4 Can we conclude from the following diagram that it's safer to drive while under the influence?

Other Examples Women are Better Drivers Than Men Toddlers who Attend Pre-school Exhibit Aggressive Behavior Recession spikes antidepressant uses Children with bigger feet spell better

Sources of misuse Biased interpretation of data - I wanted my hypothesis to be supported so badly… Correlation vs. Causation When a statistical test shows a correlation between A and B, it does not mean A is the cause and B is the effect. It may be that: A caused B. B caused A. A and B are codependent events (A can’t happen without B or vise versa) A and B are both caused by a third factor, say, C. It may be just total coincident.

Sources of misuse Manipulative question Prosecution - 'Assuming that the defendant did not commit this crime, what is the probability that the defendant and the culprit having identical fingerprints?' Expert - 'One in several billion.' Prosecution - 'Thank you.' Defense lawyer - 'Let me ask you a different question. What is the probability that a fingerprint lifted from a crime scene would be wrongly identified as belonging to someone who wasn't there?' Expert - 'Oh, about 1 in 100.'

Sources of misuse Innocent until proven guilty – Null hypothesis Tobacco company’s claim that cigarette smoking does not cause lung cancer

Sources of misuse Statistically insignificant claims due to insufficient samples size. Think the game show “Family Feud”…’The survey says….!’ On the other hand… The Supreme Court Ruled 9-0 in favor of the investors in Matrixx Initiatives v. Siracusano ( ), March 22, 2011.

MP4 Statistics Investigation Project Find a claim based on certain statistics/probability to be examined (it may be current event or questionable popular belief). State preliminary, instinctive reason to be skeptic about the claim. Why did you get suspicious of the claim? Support your skepticism by your own research on statistical facts for the subject with proper citation. Check the validity and authenticity of your findings carefully. Identify and interpret the source or motivation behind the misuse of the data. Stay on logic, try not to be cynical or otherwise…

MP4 Statistics Investigation Project Format: word investigative journal report article with catchy headline! Use all weapons of illustration available: diagram, chart, graphs, pictures etc. Assessment – This project and its in-class presentation will be counted as the Project grade for MP4. Presentation includes the copy of the article for all students in and may be accompanied by PowerPoint format. Presentation will be followed by Q&A with the readers. Rubric will follow soon

MP4 Statistics Investigation Project Due dates Group member – by 10 PM, 04/29/13 Submission/approval of the proposal (include the main source of the data search) of up to two potential topics – 10 PM, Wednesday, 05/01/12 via 1 st draft – 10 PM, _______ via Final draft – In class, _______ in hard copy with cover. Report presentation – starting in the week of__________

Proposal Claim (by who/when/source etc.) Why does it seem to be not entirely truthful? Why/what do you think is the motivation/mechanism of misconception of the claim? How will you support your idea? Identify the sources. One-two paragraphs to the each of the followings: