1 Political Update: The National Elections of 2010 David F. Damore University of Nevada, Las Vegas Department of Political Science Prepared for 2010 ALA Annual Meeting

2 Political Update: The National Elections of 2010 I. The 2010 Electoral Context II. The Senate III. The House of Representatives IV. Gubernatorial Races V. Concluding Thoughts

3 Political Update: The National Elections of 2010 I. The 2010 Electoral Context

The 2010 Electoral Context What is at stake in 2010? What is at stake in 2010? 37 seats in the US Senate. 37 seats in the US Senate. All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives. All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives. 37 gubernatorial seats. 37 gubernatorial seats. Seats in 88 of 99 state legislative chambers. Seats in 88 of 99 state legislative chambers. 1,167 of 1,971 upper house seats and 4,958 of 5,413 lower house seats. 1,167 of 1,971 upper house seats and 4,958 of 5,413 lower house seats. Redistricting implications. Redistricting implications. 4

5 The 2010 Electoral Context Is 2010 a typical midterm election? Is 2010 a typical midterm election? Surge and decline theory: Surge and decline theory: The party of the president suffers midterm losses. The party of the president suffers midterm losses. This is due to lower turnout and an enthusiasm gap between the parties. This is due to lower turnout and an enthusiasm gap between the parties. Recent midterms: Recent midterms: 1998 and 2002 as exceptions and 2002 as exceptions Democratic gains consistent with historical norms Democratic gains consistent with historical norms.

Historical Midterm Patterns 6 Source:

Historical Midterm Patterns 7 Source:

8 The 2010 Electoral Context Is 2010 a wave midterm election? Is 2010 a wave midterm election? Public opinion: Public opinion: Presidential approval: 44.9% (down from 65%). Presidential approval: 44.9% (down from 65%). Congressional approval: 19.1% (70.2% disapproval). Congressional approval: 19.1% (70.2% disapproval). Right direction/Wrong track: 30.2%/60.7%. Right direction/Wrong track: 30.2%/60.7%. Most important problem: 65% identify the economy. Most important problem: 65% identify the economy. Voters: Voters: Democrats maintain slight national registration advantage. Democrats maintain slight national registration advantage. Enthusiasm gap favors the Republicans. Enthusiasm gap favors the Republicans. Off-year and special elections as bellwethers? Off-year and special elections as bellwethers? Source:

9 The 2010 Electoral Context Is 2010 a wave midterm election? Is 2010 a wave midterm election? Resource differences: Resource differences: The Democratic campaign committees (DNC, DCCC, DSCC, and DGA) are in better financial shape than their Republican counterparts (RNC, NRCC, NRSC, and RGA). The Democratic campaign committees (DNC, DCCC, DSCC, and DGA) are in better financial shape than their Republican counterparts (RNC, NRCC, NRSC, and RGA). Republican leaning 527 and other independent groups are spending and raising roughly three to four times as much as Democratic leaning groups. Republican leaning 527 and other independent groups are spending and raising roughly three to four times as much as Democratic leaning groups.

10 The 2010 Electoral Context Questions and uncertainties Questions and uncertainties Will voters’ angst towards Democrats automatically lead to Republican gains? Will voters’ angst towards Democrats automatically lead to Republican gains? Will the Democratic organizational advantages blunt the tide in 2010? Will the Democratic organizational advantages blunt the tide in 2010? Will divisive primaries and the Tea Party movement be a net positive or negative for the Republicans? Will divisive primaries and the Tea Party movement be a net positive or negative for the Republicans?

11 Political Update: The National Elections of 2010 I. The 2010 Electoral Context II. The Senate

12 The Senate 2010 Overview 2010 Overview Present division: Present division: 59 Democrats and independents. 59 Democrats and independents. 41 Republicans. 41 Republicans. 37 seats are up for election in 2010: 37 seats are up for election in 2010: 18 Democratic seats (retirements: CT, IN, ND; incumbent primary loss: PA; appointments: CO, DE, IL, NY, WV). 18 Democratic seats (retirements: CT, IN, ND; incumbent primary loss: PA; appointments: CO, DE, IL, NY, WV). 19 Republican seats (retirements: KS, KY, MO, NH, OH; incumbent primary losses: AK, UT; appointment FL). 19 Republican seats (retirements: KS, KY, MO, NH, OH; incumbent primary losses: AK, UT; appointment FL).

Senate Handicapping 13 SourceSafe Dem.Safe Rep.In-playToss-upNet Change NYT/FiveThirtyEight612199GOP +7 The Cook Report GOP The Rothenberg Political Report GOP Real Clear Politics615166GOP

14 The Senate Analysis Analysis The Republicans are likely to come up short of gaining control of the Senate due in part to primary victories by Tea Party backed candidates. The Republicans are likely to come up short of gaining control of the Senate due in part to primary victories by Tea Party backed candidates. NV and DE are unlikely pick-ups. NV and DE are unlikely pick-ups. CO and KY appear in reach. CO and KY appear in reach. AK and FL are wildcards. AK and FL are wildcards. Most likely GOP pick-ups: Most likely GOP pick-ups: Open seats: ND, IN, PA, IL. Open seats: ND, IN, PA, IL. Democratic incumbent losses: AR, CO, maybe WA. Democratic incumbent losses: AR, CO, maybe WA.

15 Political Update: The National Elections of 2010 I. The 2010 Electoral Context II. The Senate III. The House of Representatives

16 The House of Representatives 2010 Overview 2010 Overview Present division: Present division: 255 Democrats. 255 Democrats. 178 Republicans. 178 Republicans. 2 vacancies. 2 vacancies. All 435 seats are up for election in 2008: All 435 seats are up for election in 2008: 21 open Democratic seats (2 incumbent primary losses). 21 open Democratic seats (2 incumbent primary losses). Other vulnerable seats: the 48 seats held by Democrats but carried by McCain in 2008 (8 are open). Other vulnerable seats: the 48 seats held by Democrats but carried by McCain in 2008 (8 are open). 24 open Republicans seats (2 incumbent primary losses). 24 open Republicans seats (2 incumbent primary losses). Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats. Republicans need a net gain of 39 seats.

House Handicapping 17 SourceSafe Dem.Safe Rep.In-playToss-upNet Change NYT/FiveThirtyEight GOP +47 The Cook Report GOP + 40 The Rothenberg Political Report 9336GOP Real Clear Politics GOP + 34

18 The House of Representatives Analysis Analysis Gerrymandering makes upwards of 90% of House seats uncompetitive. Gerrymandering makes upwards of 90% of House seats uncompetitive. The bad news for the Democrats is that virtually all competitive seats are held by Democrats. The bad news for the Democrats is that virtually all competitive seats are held by Democrats. To control the House, the Republicans must win all of the toss-up seats and suffer no losses. To control the House, the Republicans must win all of the toss-up seats and suffer no losses. The Tea Party movement is more likely to be a positive in House races. The Tea Party movement is more likely to be a positive in House races. Districts to watch: NV CD3 as archetype. Districts to watch: NV CD3 as archetype.

19 Political Update: The National Elections of 2010 I. The 2010 Electoral Context II. The Senate III. The House of Representatives IV. Gubernatorial Races

20 Gubernatorial Races 2010 Overview 2010 Overview Present division: Present division: 26 Democrats (appointed: KS). 26 Democrats (appointed: KS). 24 Republicans (appointed: AZ). 24 Republicans (appointed: AZ). 37 governorships are up for election in 2010: 37 governorships are up for election in 2010: 19 Democratic governors (11 open seats). 19 Democratic governors (11 open seats). 18 Republican governors (12 open seats; 1 primary loss). 18 Republican governors (12 open seats; 1 primary loss).

Gubernatorial Handicapping 21 SourceSafe Dem.Safe Rep.In-playToss-upNet Change NYT/FiveThirtyEight272812GOP +7 The Cook Report GOP The Rothenberg Political Report GOP Real Clear Politics616159GOP + 8

22 Gubernatorial Races Analysis Analysis With 30 plus governorships, the GOP will be in good shape for redistricting and the 2012 elections. With 30 plus governorships, the GOP will be in good shape for redistricting and the 2012 elections. Likely Republican pick-ups: IL, KS, MI, OH, OK, PA, TN, WY. Likely Republican pick-ups: IL, KS, MI, OH, OK, PA, TN, WY. Likely Democratic pick-ups: CT, HI, MN, VT. Likely Democratic pick-ups: CT, HI, MN, VT. Wildcard: RI (Chaffee independent bid). Wildcard: RI (Chaffee independent bid). Toss-ups: CA, FL, ME, MD, MA, NM, OR, WI (all but MD are open seats). Toss-ups: CA, FL, ME, MD, MA, NM, OR, WI (all but MD are open seats).

23 Political Update: The National Elections of 2010 I. The 2010 Electoral Context II. The US Senate III. The US House of Representatives IV. Salient Gubernatorial Races V. Concluding Thoughts

Concluding Thoughts Defeating incumbents, even in a hostile environment, is difficult. Defeating incumbents, even in a hostile environment, is difficult. 24

Incumbent Reelection Rates 25 Source: GOP Takeover 2006 Dem Takeover

Concluding Thoughts Defeating incumbents, even in a hostile environment, is difficult. Defeating incumbents, even in a hostile environment, is difficult. Can voters signal anything besides no? Can voters signal anything besides no? Will the GOP win the battle, but lose the war? Will the GOP win the battle, but lose the war? Would divided government provide a context amenable for bipartisan problem solving? Would divided government provide a context amenable for bipartisan problem solving? 26