Workshop on Public Policy: Design, Implementation, Evaluation and Monitoring Presentation Module: Public Decision Making 13 April 2016

Decision Making Definition The process of examining your possibilities, options, comparing them, and choosing a course of action “It’s not a problem that we have a problem. It’s a problem if we don’t deal with the problem” Mary Kay Utech

Related Quotes “Be sure you are right—then go ahead” Davy Crocket “Doing what’s right isn’t hard—knowing what’s right is” Lyndon B. Johnson “ Mine own applause is the only applause which matters.” Cicero “ Once you’ve made your mark, watch out for erasers.” Will Rogers

Contd. -Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes resulting inthe selection of a course of action among several alternatives. -Every decision making process produces a final choice. -The output can be an action or an opinion of choice.

Six C’s of Decision Making 1.Construct 2.Compile 3.Collect 4.Compare 5.Consider 6.Commit

Contd. Construct a clear picture of precisely of what must be decided Compile a list of requirements that must be met Collect information on alternatives that meet the requirement. Compare alternatives that meet the requirements Consider the “what might go wrong” factor with each alternative Commit to a decision and stick to it.

Decision making steps There are eight steps of decision making: 1. Identification of problem 2. Identification of decision criteria 3. Allocating weight to criteria 4. Developing alternatives 5. Analysis of alternatives 6. Selection of alternatives 7. Implementation of the best alternatives 8. Evaluation of decision effectiveness

Identification of a Problem What is a Problem? It is defined as a discrepancy between an existing and a desired state of affairs. Some cautions about problem identification on following lines: Making sure it is a problem not a symptom of a problem Problem identification is subjective Discrepancies can be found by comparing current results with some standard Managers are not likely to characterize a discrepancy as a problem if they perceive that they do not have the authority, information or other resources needed to act.

Contd. Problem Identification You can’t solve problems with the same thinking that created them “In any moment of decision the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing.” Theodore Roosevelt Do not put a band aid – solve the root of the problem

Problem Solving Problem solving is the art of finding the ways to get from where you are now to where you want to be. The ‘Problem’ therefore, is the gap between the present situation and a more desirable one. A systematic approach to defining the problem and creating a vast number of possible solutions without judging these solutions. Problem solving is a Cognitive Processing directed at achieving a goal where no solution method is obvious to the problem solver.

Complex Problem Solving Procedure - Measure - Model - Understand - Predict/Decide/Plan - Communicate - Act

What is Problem Solving and Decision Making Activity Write one sentence definition of Problem Solving and Decision Making

Problem Solving & Decision Making The relationship between them Problem solving and Decision making go hand in hand. Practicing them effectively will increase your potential to advance Problem Solving Decision Making INPUT OUTPUT Review

Decision Making: Generating Alternatives TIPS/Tools -SWOT Analysis (strengths, Weaknesses, opportunities, Threats) -Brainstorming (individual and Group) - Cost-Benefit Analysis - Involve Outsiders -External Benchmarking -Encourage members to step out of their traditional roles -Ask probing questions -Be willing to consider views differing from yours -Revisit abandoned alternatives

What are the useful decision making models? Classical Decision Theory (bounded limited rationality: -Simple, rigid approach -Involves a series of steps: formulation of problem, goals and objectives; conceptualization of alternatives and collection of relevant information, choosing best alternative; implementation of decision; and evaluation of outcomes -Often used as a model of how managers should make decisions -Views the decision maker as acting in a world of complete certainty

Models: Contd. The Behavioral Decision Making Model (Simon) -Recognizes that human beings operatewith: Cognitive Limitations; Bounded Rationality -The Behavioral Decision Maker: faces a problem that is not clearly defined; has limited knowledge of possible action alternatives and their consequences; chooses a satisfactory alternative. -Accepts a world with bounded rationality and views the decision makers as acting only in terms of what he/she perceives about a given situation.

Decision Making Realities Most decision making in organizations goes beyond step-by-step rational choice Most decision making in organizations falls some where between the highly rational and the highly chaotic Decisions must be made under risk and uncertainty Decisions must be made under time pressures and information limitations Decisions should be ethical.

Case Study: Cuban Missile Crisis Historical event adopted as an important case study related to decision- making US President John F. Kennedy’s new approach to decision making is described as Groupthink In October 1962, US and Soviet Union were on the verge of nuclear confrontation Preceding the Cuban Missile Crisis, US covert operation decision to unseat Fidel Castro had ended in a fiasco The critical decision in October 1962 was how to respond in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Options narrowed down to two: military response or naval blockade Constituted a team to solicit diverse viewpoints, stimulate debate, explore options, probe assumptions and let the best plan win on its merit Kennedy chose a naval blockade option which was successful and prevented nuclear confrontation with the Soviets. Groupthink has led enormous influence on today’s management thinking on leading teams.

Cuban Missile Crisis View the Video Clip To be followed by discussion

Group Think Class to get divided into four Groups Each Group to identify a Situation/Problem related to policy issue Quickly follow the six C’s and come up with decision related to the problem after identifying alternatives Time allotted is 8 minutes Each group representative to make 3 minute presentation on the problem identification, alternatives and decision arrived

Conclusion 2.html?utm_medium=integrated-partnership&utm_source=slideshare Viewing of a 1- minute Video Clip on four types of decision making; Consensus, Democratic Authoritarian Collective