Turning Texas Blue? Demographic Change and Party Politics in Texas

A group of former Obama campaign aids has launched Battleground Texas, an organization created to turn Texas blue. Battleground Texas

Texas is a Red State Turning Texas blue won’t be easy because Texas is arguably the most reliably Republican state in the country.

Remember Jimmy Carter? The last Democratic presidential candidate to carry Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976, 37 years ago.

Or Ann Richards? The last Democratic governor of Texas was Ann Richards, who served from

Long Losing Streak No Democrat has held statewide office in Texas since Democrats have lost 100 consecutive races for statewide office.

YearRepublican CandidateDemocratic Candidate 2000G. W. Bush 59 %Gore 38 % 2004G. W. Bush 61 %Kerry 38 % 2008McCain 56 %Obama 44 % 2012Romney 57 %Obama 41 % Presidential Elections in Texas Presidential races have not been close and it is hard to identify a trend in the Democrats’ favor from these data. Romney: 4,569,843 Obama: 3,308,124 Margin: 1,261,719

YearRepublican CandidateDemocratic Candidate 1998George W. Bush 68 %Gary Mauro 31 % 2002Rick Perry 58 %Tony Sanchez 40 % 2006*Rick Perry 39 %Chris Bell 30 % 2010Rick Perry 55 %Bill White 42 % Gubernatorial Elections in Texas The 2006 race also included two independents: Kinky Friedman 12 % Carole Keeton Strayhorn 18 %

YearRepublican CandidateDemocratic Candidate 2006Sharon Keller 57 %J. R. Molina 43 % 2008Tom Price 52 %Susan Strawn 46 % 2010Michael Keasler 60 %Keith Hampton 37 % 2012Sharon Keller 55 %Keith Hampton 41 % Texas Court of Criminal Appeals Races for the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals are low profile because the candidates are unable to raise enough money to mount a campaign. Consequently, voters base their choices primarily on party affiliation.

Offices Held, 2013 OfficeTotal number of officials DemocratsRepublicans U.S. Senate202 U.S. House State Executives606 Texas Senate Texas House Texas Supreme Court 909 Texas Court of Criminal Appeals 909 Texas Railroad Commission 303 Texas State Board of Education

But Democrats Are Hopeful

Population vs. Electorate Texas, 2008 PopulationElectorate White48 %63 % Black12 %13 % Latino36 %20 % Asian3 %-- Other1 %-- California, 2008 PopulationElectorate White42 %63 % Black7 %10 % Latino37 %18 % Asian13 %6 % Other1 %3 % State A, 2008State B, 2008 Which state is State A? Which state is State B? State A is Texas State B is California Which state is more Democratic?

2008 election Texas, State A  McCain—55 %  Obama—44 % California, State B  Obama—61 %  McCain—37 %

Vote by Race/Ethnicity Texas ObamaMcCain White26 %73 % Black98 %2 % Latino63 %35 % Asian-- other-- California ObamaMcCain White52 %46 % Black94 %5 % Latino74 %23 % Asian64 %35 % other55 %41 % What is the big difference between the two states? In Texas, whites vote Republican. In California, they split. Texas in 2008California in 2008

Why Isn’t Texas Already Blue?

Texas Whites Strongly Republican Racial/Ethnic Group Texas Vote Pct. U.S. Vote Pct. Whites26 %43 % Blacks98 %95 % Latinos63 %66 % Obama Vote Percentage 2008 White voters in Texas are considerably more likely to vote Republican than white voters nationwide. Why are white Texans more Republican than whites nationwide?

Texas is Relatively Religious Texans are more religious than people in the nation as a whole. This benefits Republicans because white* people who attend religious services are more likely to vote Republican than people who do not attend services. * Most African Americans and Latinos vote Democratic regardless of church attendance.

Texans More Religious Than Others  77 percent of Texans are “absolutely certain” of their belief in God compared with a national figure of 71 percent;  67 percent of Texans say that religion is “very important” in their lives compared with a national figure of 56 percent;  47 percent of Texans attend religious services at least once a week compared with a national figure of 39 percent; and  66 percent of Texans indicate that they pray at least once a day compared with a national figure of 58 percent.

Religious Affiliation / Obama Pct. White Vote 2012 Pct. In TexasPct. Nationwide Evangelical Protestants / Obama 20 %34 %26 % Mainline Protestants / Obama 44 %15 %18 % Catholics / Obama 40 %24 % No Affiliation / Obama 70 %12 %16 % Religious Affiliations in Texas Evangelical Protestants include the Assemblies of God, Southern Baptists, and Pentecostal churches. Mainline Protestants include Methodists, Presbyterians, and Episcopalians.

Self IdentificationTexans in 2012Americans in 2012 Conservative43 %38 % Moderate34 %36 % Liberal19 %23 % Texas is Relatively Conservative Most conservatives vote Republican; most liberals vote Democratic. Moderates split their vote. Another reason Texas isn’t already Democratic.

The Electorate is More Republican than the Population

Voting Age Population (18 yrs. and up)18,279,737 Voting Eligible Population (excludes non-citizens, etc.)16,100,196 Registered to Vote13,646,226 Voted in 2012 Election7,993,851 Voter Turnout is Relatively Low Less than half the state’s voting eligible population (VEP) cast ballots in The national turnout rate was 58.7 % of VEP. The most important group in the state? The 1.5 million who typically vote in Republican primary elections.

Participation in Texas

Population of Texas  47 percent white  10 percent are 65 and over  Average household income is $50 K  23 percent hold bachelor’s degrees or better 2010 Electorate  67 percent white  77 percent over 45  20 percent 65 and over  73 percent make $100 K or more  85 percent have college degrees  66 percent have no children under 18 Texas Voters Unrepresentative The 2012 electorate was likely more representative, but no exit polls were taken.

Party Affiliation, 2012 Texas Registered Voters  44% Democratic  44% Republican  12% Independent Texas Likely Voters  40% Democratic  51% Republican  9% Independent “Likely Voters” were defined as those who indicated that they were either “Extremely” or “Somewhat” interested in politics AND either voted in “Every” or “Almost every” recent election. Texas Lyceum Poll Data

Hope for Democrats Demographic Change

Texas Population Growth  Asians—increased by 72 %  Latinos—increased by 42 %  African Americans— increased by 24 %  Whites—increased by 4 %

Population Change, Average Latino Texan is age 27; average white Texan is age 40.

Texans Under Age 18 Race/Ethnicity Hispanic1,620,3193,317,777 White2,463,3282,322,661 Black639,672810,543 Asian/Hawaiian90,531236,466 By 2016, Texas will have 900,000 newly eligible Latino voters compared with only 185,000 newly eligible white voters.

Texas Vote by Age Group

Latino Turnout in Texas

Goals of Battleground Texas

1. Voter Registration Texas has 2 million unregistered Latinos citizens, 200,000 unregistered Asians citizens. The registration rates are as follows: Whites—67 % Blacks—62 % Latinos—53 %

2. Voter Participation Latino voter turnout lags behind white and African American turnout Voter Turnout  White—65 %  Black—62 %  Latino—43 %

3. Vote Democratic The final goal of Battleground Texas is to ensure that most new voters cast their ballots for Democratic candidates.

The Republican Response

Appeal to Hispanics Republicans are fighting back by working to appeal to minority voters. For example, the Texas Republican Party has recruited a number of African American and Latino candidates to run under the GOP banner. Republicans don’t need to win the Latino vote; they just need to narrow the Democratic margin.

 Deputy voter registrars can only register voters in the county where they are registered to vote.  Deputy voter registrars must be Texas residents.  Voter registration cards can’t be photocopied.  Voter registration cards can’t be mailed to the clerk’s office; they must be personally delivered.  People engaged in voter registration can’t be paid for performance; they can only be paid hourly. Changes to Election Laws

Texas Voter ID Law In 2011, the legislature passed a Voter ID law that requires voters to present a valid state or federal photo ID -- such as a driver's license, state ID card, military ID, passport or concealed-handgun permit, but not a student ID card.

A federal court blocked enforcement of the Texas voter ID law under the Voting Rights Act (VRA), because, the Court ruled, it discriminated against minority voters: An est. 790,000 Texas voters lack photo ID Latinos are substantially more likely than whites to lack ID A third of counties don’t have a DPS office Many Texas citizens would have to drive miles to get an ID. People would need to spend $22 for a copy of their birth certificate if they don’t have the original. Federal Court Blocked Voter ID

Voter ID Impact

SCOTUS Disables Pre-Clearance In 2013, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 5-4 to invalidate Section 4 of the VRA, effectively disabling pre-clearance. Governor Perry and Attorney General Abbott announced that the Texas Voter ID law would take effect immediately.

DOJ Asks for Texas “Bail in” The Department of Justice has announced that it is going to ask a federal court to require Texas to seek pre-clearance under Sect. 3 of the VRA, the bail-in provision, based on Texas’ recent history of voting rights discrimination.

Will Battleground Texas Succeed?

Money Organizing Texas will cost millions of dollars. Are Democratic donors in Texas and around the nation willing to put up the money?

Perseverance Reviving the Texas Democratic Party won’t happen overnight. Will Democratic officials and donors be willing to invest the time and money for a payoff that may not take place for several election cycles?

Candidates Will the Democratic Party find and/or develop candidates capable of winning statewide races? Julian and Joaquin Castro Wendy Davis

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