Climate Change and its impact on agriculture in Kazakhstan using the IMPACT model Aidan Islyami, Alisher Aldashev, Daniil Osipov, International School of Economics, Kazakh-British Technical University Almaty, 2016

Contents Kazakhstan’s regions and agriculture The concept of the study Climate change scenarios Crop yields and harvested areas Concluding remarks

Regions of Kazakhstan

Regions form the IMPACT model

Crops of Kazakhstan by regions The wheat is a major crop for Kazakhstan and according to the data for 2014 it comprises 42% of the total output of the crops, 76% of the cereals and pulses, 58% of the total harvested land and 81% of the total harvested land for cereals and pulses. Soft spring wheat comprises 93% of the total harvested land of wheat in Kazakhstan and grows mainly in Akmola, Kostanay and North Kazakhstan regions. Other crops include barley which grows mainly in the north, cotton which grows mainly in the south, sunflowers, sugarbeet, maize, flax, rice and vegetables.

Animals of Kazakhstan by regions Cattle production and herding is a main industry. (Cattle constitutes 48% of the total production in 2014) Production of cattle is concentrated in the south of Kazakhstan: Southern Kazakhstan, Zhambyl and Almaty regions constituted 34% of cattle, 48% of lamb, 38% of goats, 32% of horses and 56% of poultry production in Kazakhstan in Eastern Kazakhstan region constituted 14% of cattle, 15% of lamb, 17% of goats, 13% of horses and 26% of poultry production in Kazakhstan in 2014.

Climate change scenarios GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, US MIROC: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), and National Institute for Environmental Studies IPSL: The Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France. Hadgem: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Graphs show predictions for the Central Asian countries in terms of change in temperature and precipitation.

Climate scenarios: GFDL (Temperature and Precipitation change)

Climate scenarios: MIROC (Temperature and Precipitation change)

Climate scenarios: IPSL (Temperature and Precipitation change)

Climate scenarios: HGEM (Temperature and Precipitation change)

Climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan and the region Temperature is expected to increase and the precipitation is expected to increase in the north and to decrease in the south except for HGEM. GFDL: Predicts the smallest possible temperature increase of the four and more precipitation in the north-eastern Kazakhstan. IPSL: Higher temperatures and smaller precipitation are expected in the southern and central Kazakhstan and the rest of the Central Asian region. The driest scenario. Hadgem: The hottest scenario. The highest temperature increase is expected in the eastern part of the country. MIROC: Higher temperature but with smaller precipitation in the south and more in the north of Kazakhstan.

Wheat yield: IMPACT model HGEM and IPSL perform worse that the baseline and GFDL and MIROC perform better. As expected, wheat yield improves under scenarios with more precipitation in the northern wheat growing regions of Kazakhstan. On the other hand, scenario with higher temperature (HGEM) and the driest scenario (IPSL) are unfavorable for the growth in the wheat yield and harvested area. The impact of the climate scenarios on the harvested area of wheat is small (less that 5%)

Wheat yield: Regression model Yield of wheat in three regions for the period (yearly data); Temperature (average of daily max for mid-May – June); Precipitation (total rainfall in mm for the period mid-May – June) We observe a strong negative effect of temperature and a strong positive effect of precipitation on yield. Increase in average temperatures by one degree reduces yield by 0.11 ton/hectare. Increase in precipitation by 1 mm during mid-May and June increases yield by 4 kg per hectare. We also find that not only the amount of precipitation is important but its variation as well. Increase in the standard deviation of precipitation by 1 mm decreases the yield by 0.12 ton/hectare.

Other crops Yields of fruits and vegetables increase under the climate change scenarios and the yields of potatoes decline compared to the baseline scenario. Fruits and vegetables produce higher yields under the hottest scenarios (HGEM) and MIROC Model shows little change in the cotton yields under the climate change scenarios. Potato yields decline even compared to the current levels under all scenarios except GFDL

Other policy scenarios for Kazakhstan Based on the agricultural programs of the government such as Agro 2020, Beef Export Development Project etc. In particular, Diversification of land allocation to crops by increasing the area for pulses, oils, potatoes and fruits and decreasing the area for wheat. increasing the cattle headcount and exports by Increasing groundwater withdrawal and increasing basin efficiency (improvement in the water infrastructure investment and water management).

Concluding remarks Both IMPACT model and regression analysis support the negative impact of temperature and the positive impact of the precipitation on wheat yield. Yields of fruits and vegetables are higher under all climate change scenarios compared to the baseline. Yields of potatoes decline under all climate change scenarios compared to the baseline.

Thank you very much for your attention!