UNCERTAINTY WORKING GROUP BREAKOUT REPORT Paul Duffy, Doug Morton, Laura Duncanson, Cristina Milesi, Dimitris Menemenlis, Steve Stehman, Zhiliang Zhu, Molly Macauley, David Baker, Ken Jucks, Alessandro Baccini, Oliver Cartus, Neeti, Roger Cooke, Steve Hagen, Steve Lohrenz, Warren Cohen, Jonathan Greenberg, Ralph Dubayah, Robert Kennedy NASA CMS Nov 20141

2

CMS Uncertainty Working Group Nov Uncertainty: Is it for our end users? Is it so we can learn and improve? Both? How right do we need to be about uncertainty for it to be useful? Should we be trying to handle uncertainties across fluxes and biomass?

NASA CMS Nov Reporting: It should be very clear what factors are included in an uncertainty estimate How useful is model uncertainty alone? How does existing framework/definition help us understand?

NASA CMS Nov Is uncertainty useful if not measured against independent “truth”? Is it better to develop a simpler model if it means you can understand error better? How can we develop full joint distributions of uncertainties needed to scale up?

NASA CMS Nov 20146

7 Force ourselves to reach across to other projects and compare methods, results Mechanism: Self identification here at meeting &1-page flyers w/in group

NASA CMS Nov Project pairs jointly present briefly on regular telecons Presenters get feedback to improve their planned approaches Larger group begins to understand issues and commonalities related to goals

NASA CMS Nov As a group, we begin to develop: Guidelines? Considerations? Best Practices? Individually, we improve our ability to use uncertainty within our own projects