 Prepared by  The Center for Business and Economic Research  Lee Business School  University of Nevada, Las Vegas  May 30, Dr. Stephen M. Miller, Director Center for Business and Economic Research Lee Business School University of Nevada, Las Vegas February 4, 2016

2 “640K ought to be enough for anybody.” Bill Gates, 1981

3 “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899

4 “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” Decca Records, 1962 Rejecting the Beatles

National Outlook 5

Overview  U.S. Economy Continues to Expand  Much subdued expansion  World Economic Growth Slows  China important player  Details of National Outlook  Forecasts 6

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Macroeconomic Policies  Fiscal Policy  Politics blocks action  Monetary Policy  Fed’s actions thwarted 10

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Global Growth  China’s Growth Slows  Important player at global level  Emerging Market Economies Also Slow  Linked to China  Asian Countries Lead the Pack  Japan in recession again  Developed Economies Also Slow 14

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Indicators of Economic Activity and Confidence  No Signal of Recession?  But, seventh year of expansion  Stock market movements indicate recession?  Other signals do not suggest recession 19

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Various Sectors Remain Strong  Employment Growth Relatively Strong  Need somewhat less than 100,000 jobs per month to stay even  Cannot continue the current pace much longer  Crude Oil Prices Remain Low  Housing Market a Bit Tight 24

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Nevada Outlook 31

Overview  New and Old Indices Track Nevada Economy  New coincident and leading indicators  Nevada Economy Continues to Expand  Subdued expansion  Employment Growth in Most Sectors  Forecasts 32

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Southern Nevada Outlook 42

Overview  New and Old Indices Track Southern Nevada Economy  New coincident and leading indicators  Southern Nevada Economy Continues to Expand  Subdued expansion  Employment Growth in Most Sectors  Results of CBER Quarterly Business Survey  Forecasts 43

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Risks to the Outlook  Changes in International Growth  China and emerging market economies  Monetary Policy  Schedule of interest rate changes  Terrorist Event 63

64 Thank You

Knowledge within Reach CBER 65