AOML Research Review Postmortem Robert Atlas Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory May 1, 2012 Welcome and introduction

Dr. Robert M. Atlas, Director The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory conducts a basic and applied research program that seeks to understand the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics and processes of the ocean and atmosphere, both separately and as a coupled system. The principal focus of these investigations is to provide knowledge that will ultimately lead to improved prediction and forecasting of severe storms, better utilization and management of marine resources, better understanding of the factors affecting both climate and environmental quality, and improved ocean and weather services for the nation. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway Miami, Florida

Goals Improve Forecast Accuracy – Hurricane impact areas (track) – 50% in 10 years – Severity (intensity) – 50% in 10 years – Special Focus on Rapid Intensity Change (RI) Extend forecast reliability out to 7 days Quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty to enable risk management decisions

In 2003 the cone of uncertainty for the 5-day forecast for Isabel extended 878 nautical miles. With today’s advances in track forecasting, the 5-day forecast for Hurricane Irene in 2011 reduced the cone of uncertainty an estimated 54% (478 miles at 120 hours) compared to The advances in forecasting reduced over- warning in Irene and saved the U.S. at least $384 million in evacuation costs. Hurricane Irene forecast – a great example of track improvement Hurricane Irene August 24, AM EDT Wednesday Advisory 15A Center location 21.3 N 72.6 W Max sustained wind 100 mph Movement WNW at 9mph

OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS FOR HURRICANES 1.Evaluate the potential impact of new (proposed) observing systems on hurricane track and intensity predictions. 2.Evaluate tradeoffs in the design and configuration of proposed observing systems (e.g. coverage, resolution, accuracy and data redundancy). 3.Optimize sampling strategies for current and future airborne and space-based observing systems. 4.Evaluate and improve data assimilation and vortex initialization methodology for hurricane prediction.

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F3 = 220 F4 = 72 F5 = 12 F3 = 140 F4 = 25 F5 = 3  Warm eastern and cold central Pacific provides large- scale atmospheric conditions conducive to intense tornado outbreaks over the U.S.  The number of intense tornadoes is nearly doubled when the eastern Pacific is warm and the central Pacific is cold.