Estimating U.S. Wheat 2014/15 MYA Price 2014/15 Marketing Year for U.S. Wheat  June 2014 – May 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S.

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Presentation transcript:

Estimating U.S. Wheat 2014/15 MYA Price 2014/15 Marketing Year for U.S. Wheat  June 2014 – May 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S. wheat $’s for June 14 -May 15 *The monthly prices in black are NASS published prices, monthly prices in red are KSU estimates and all of the weights are KSU estimates. MonthPrice* % Price Weight* 2014/15 MYA Price June 2014$ % July$ % August$ % September$ % October$ % November$ % $5.98 / bu December$ % January$ % February forecast $ % March forecast $ % April forecast $ % May 2015 forecast $ %

Wheat Price Comparison: ARC-CO vs PLC Calculating Reference Price$ for 2014 & 2015 versus PLC Reference Price$ (=$5.50) Calculating ARC-CO Reference Prices (vs PLC Minimum $) Marketing YearMYA PriceMin Price2014 ARC $2015 ARC $ 2009/10$4.87< $5.50$ /11$5.70> $5.50$ /12$7.24> $5.50$ /13$7.77> $5.50$ /14$6.87> $5.50$ /15$5.98 ARC-CO Reference $$6.60$6.70 After 14% deductible $5.68$5.76 ̶ PLC Reference $ Less $5.50 ARC MYA$ ̶ PLC$ + $0.18+ $0.26

Estimating U.S. Corn 2014/15 MYA Price U.S. Corn Marketing Year for 2014/15  September 2014 – August 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S. corn $’s for September August 2015 *The monthly prices in black are NASS published prices, monthly prices in red are KSU estimates and all of the weights are KSU estimates. MonthPrice* % Price Weight* 2014/15 MYA Price September 2014$ % October$ % November$ % December$ % January$ % February forecast $ % $3.81 / bu March forecast $ % April forecast $ % May forecast $ % June forecast $ % July forecast $ % August 2015 forecast $ %

Corn Price Comparison: ARC-CO vs PLC Calculating Reference Price$ for 2014 & 2015 versus PLC Reference Price$ (=$3.70) Calculating ARC-CO Reference Prices (vs PLC Minimum $) Marketing YearMYA PriceMin Price2014 ARC $2015 ARC $ 2009/10$3.55< $3.70$ /11$5.18> $3.70$ /12$6.22> $3.70$ /13$6.89> $3.70$ /14$4.46> $3.70$ /15$3.81 ARC-CO Reference $$5.29 After 14% deductible $4.55 ̶ PLC Reference $ Less $3.70 ARC MYA$ ̶ PLC$ + $0.85

Estimating U.S. Sorghum 2014/15 MYA Price U.S. Sorghum Marketing Year for 2014/15  September 2014 – August 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted avg. of monthly U.S. sorghum $’s for September August 2015 *The monthly prices in black are NASS published prices, monthly prices in red are KSU estimates and all of the weights are KSU estimates. MonthPrice* % Price Weight* 2014/15 MYA Price September 2014$ % October$ % November$ % December$ % January$ % February forecast $ % $3.87 / bu March forecast $ % April forecast $ % May forecast $ % June forecast $ % July forecast $ % August 2015 forecast $ %

Sorghum Price Comparison: ARC-CO vs PLC Calculating Reference Price$ for 2014 & 2015 versus PLC Reference Price$ (=$3.95) Calculating ARC-CO Reference Prices (vs PLC Minimum $) Marketing YearMYA PriceMin Price2014 ARC $2015 ARC $ 2009/10$3.22< $3.95$ /11$5.02> $3.95$ /12$5.99> $3.95$ /13$6.33> $3.95$ /14$4.28> $3.95$ /15$3.87 ARC-CO Reference $$5.10 After 14% deductible $4.38 ̶ PLC Reference $ Less $3.95 ARC MYA$ ̶ PLC$ + $0.43

Estimating U.S. Soybean 2014/15 MYA Price U.S. Soybean Marketing Year for 2014/15  September 2014 – August 2015 MYA Price 2014/15 = Weighted average of monthly U.S. soybean $’s for September August 2015 *The monthly prices in black are NASS published prices, monthly prices in red are KSU estimates and all of the weights are KSU estimates. MonthPrice* % Price Weight* 2014/15 MYA Price September 2014$ % October$ % November$ % December$ % January$ % February forecast $ % $10.09 / bu March forecast $ % April forecast $ % May forecast $ % June forecast $ % July forecast $ % August 2015 forecast $ %

Soybean Price Comparison: ARC-CO vs PLC Calculating Reference Price$ for 2014 & 2015 versus PLC Reference Price$ (=$8.40) Calculating ARC-CO Reference Prices (vs PLC Minimum $) Marketing YearMYA PriceMin Price2014 ARC $2015 ARC $ 2009/10$9.59> $8.40$ /11$11.30> $8.40$ /12$12.50> $8.40$ /13$14.40> $8.40$ /14$13.00> $8.40$ /15$10.09 ARC-CO Reference $$12.27 After 14% deductible $10.55 ̶ PLC Reference $ Less $8.40 ARC MYA$ ̶ PLC$ + $2.15