PACS 2500 Introduction to Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess Co-Director Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO , (303) Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Airliner Carbon Footprint time-you-fly-you-trash-the-planet-and- theres-no-easy-fix/?ex_cid=538fb Round trip driving distance ~3600 miles the-planet-and-theres-no-easy-fix

Free Expression Cultural Differences free-expression-but-opposition-to-some-forms-of-speech/

Immigration Stats Since 2008, more immigrants have come from Asia than Latin America, and the disparity is growing. There are more Mexicans leaving the United States than coming in. Roughly 1.6 percent of immigrant males between ages 18 and 39 wind up incarcerated, compared with 3.3 percent of native-born American men The bulk of the evidence shows that immigrants have a hugely positive effect on total American G.D.P. while having little effect on overall wages. reality-on-immigration.html

Peace Feeler? right/2016/02/18/cdd2c228-d5c1-11e5-be55-2cc3c1e4b76b_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card- e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Core & Overlay

Overlay Problems: Escalation Escalation Relationship Communication Collaboration Core

Escalation Thresholds Copyright 2003 © by Guy and Heidi Burgess

Pre-Polarization Conflicts

Polarizing Conflicts

Polarized Identity Conflicts

Polarized Identity Groups Republicans / Democrats Hutus / Tutsis Protestants / Catholics Shia / Sunni Palestinians / Israelis

Escalation Conflict Intensification Beginnings Out-Group Identity Worst Case Bias Victim Bias Grievances Enmity Reinforcement Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Recreational Complaint Tactical Choices Invincibility Illusion Tactical Escalation / Response Coalition Building/Polarization Rachets Sacrifice Trap Shame Trap Personalization Breakover Interpersonal Attack Unthinking Anger Violence Breakover Vengeance Self-Defense Feedback Loops

De-Escalation Strategies Portray Conflict Process as the Source of Evil and All Sides as Victim (e.g. Hiroshima) “Mistakes Were Made” Amnesty (?War Criminal Problem?) Initiate Cooling-off Periods Give Losers a Future They Can Live With (World War I vs. II Settlement) Trust Earning / Confidence Building (GRIT) Recognition that Escalation Strengthens Enemies as well as Friends No Response or Minimal Response to Provocation

De-Escalation Strategies Disarming Behavior to Break Stereotypes (Sadat) Pursue Cooperative Activities between Enemies Replace Negotiators Correct Other Overlay Problems Limit Misunderstandings Clarify Facts Pursue Fair Process Create Islands of Un-escalated Discourse Accurate Cost of Conflict Accounting

Overlay Problems: Relationships Escalation Relationships Communication Collaboration Core

Compassion

Charter of Compassion How do you promote the idea of compassion?

Passive vs. Active Compassion  Passive compassion  Do not actively act in ways that hurt others  Indirect harm  Active compassion  Active try to help others

Compassion  Principled compassion: “That which is hurtful to you, do not do to others.”  Empathy, benevolence  Pragmatic compassion: “Don’t make people any madder at you, then you absolutely have to.”  Mirror building – “looking at yourself as others see you”

Compassion Gap

Mirror-Building

Mirror Building?  Have It All vs. Everyone -- Distributional  Have More vs. Have Less & Have Not -- Distributional  Have Less vs. Have Not -- Distributional  Liberal vs. Conservative -- Cultural

Disrespect and Humiliation

Tolerance / Coexistence

Tolerance cs/archive/2014/03/lots-of- people-who-support-gay- marriage-think-gay-sex-is- immoral/284171/

Beyond Tolerance

Compassion  What is hurtful to you…  Disrespect?  Betrayal?  What causes you to be hurtful to others…  Lack of empathy?  Anger?  Out group stereotypes?  Dehumanization?

The Unrightable Wrongs Problem

The Meeting Place Justice Punish those that committed “unrightable”, “unspeakable” wrongs Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common history Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means letting people “get away with it”) Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness Lederach Trade-Offs

Possible Applications: Syria Regime Responds 0-7:16

Other Possible Applications

Columbia Peace Talks cations/2015/09/24/qa- colombia-breakthrough- world-model-peace-talks

The Meeting Place Justice Punish those that committed “unrightable”, “unspeakable” wrongs Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common history Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means letting people “get away with it”) Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness Lederach Trade-Offs

Visioning Justice Punish those that committed “unrightable”, “unspeakable” wrongs Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common history Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means letting people “get away with it”) Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness Future Vision Imagining a positive future vision and a fair relationship Elise Boulding

Overlay Problems: Communication Escalation Relationships Communication Collaboration Core

Misunderstandings Social Interpersonal

The Iron Law of Stereotypes Bandwidth Limit Information transfer capacity We can't know everything about everyone We have to generalize The key is to distinguish Inaccurate stereotypes Accurate stereotypes

Stereotypes Identify examples of inaccurate and damaging stereotypes Generalizing extremists Identify examples of accurate and helpful stereotypes New York, Washington, Boulder story

Combating Enemy Images The problem:  We tend to view others through the lens of stereotypes, focusing only on the faults of our enemies, and the positive characteristics of our friends. Options for making things better:  Dialogue, appreciative listening, active listening, narratives, people-to- people programs, etc.

Listening Skills Promoting understanding not immediate resolution Active listening Not “Rebuttal Listening” Not merely waiting your turn to talk Appreciative inquiry Dialog Story Telling Common Ground

Cognitive Dissonance / Confirmation Bias People discount information that challenges their world view Minds are like parachutes, they function best when they're open. The QED Syndrome Quod erat demonstrandum Thus it is proven What possible errors in your worldview won't you consider?

I Messages Communicate problems without escalating conflict Statement about yourself Begin with “I…” Usually focus on a feeling State a problem without blame You Messages Communicate problems but may escalate conflict Statement about the Other Begin with “You…” Usually focus on an act Often blame the Other for the problem “I” vs. “You” Messages

I Message Examples I came home to try to get some studying done and found the place to messy to work in. Was it my turn or your turn to clean things? You Messages Examples You are a slob. You left the place a bloody mess again. I can’t study and it’s your fault! "I" vs. "You" Messages

Political Communication Trying to play hard ball” politics and do the right thing (from their perspective)

Words, Voice, Visuals? Words Voice Visuals Source: Truman National Security Project

Projecting Strength Stand up straight Extend your arms way over your head Lower them but maintain your head and shoulder position Cultivate a military, “at ease” position (standing at attention is too stiff) Pretend you’re holding a ball (golf ball to giant pilates ball) Palms up (palms forward indicates submission) Source: Truman National Security Project

Projecting Strength Stand up straight Extend your arms way over your head Lower them but maintain your head and shoulder position Cultivate a military, “at ease” position (standing at attention is too stiff) Pretend you’re holding a ball (golf ball to giant pilates ball) Palms up (palms forward indicates submission) Source: Truman National Security Project

Projecting Warmth Focus on the smile Must be genuine Only good actors / actresses can fake it Exploits mirror neurons 70% of congressional winners can be predicted by visuals Can’t be a submissive smile Raised eyebrows Eyes must be “steely” Source: Truman National Security Project

Wesley Clarke

Tricks: Misdirection Ploy David Copperfield

Tricks: “Hobbes,” “Who Me?” Ploy Innuendo – “He’s not a Muslim, as far as I know” Surrogates Anonymous accusers – “People say …” Free lancers

Tricks: “Everybody Does It” Ploy Devise and implement a Machiavellian plan. Implement it in a big way. Find some way to accuse the other side doing something similar (even though it may be minor) Invoke the “can’t play hardball” defense Last minute variation: Act when the opponent has no time to respond (like just before the election)

Communication Matrix What do we say about them? What do we say about ourselves? What do they say about themselves? What do they they about us? Source: Truman National Security Project

Overlay Problems: Communication, Facts Escalation Relationships Communication Facts Collaboration Core

Trustworthy Facts  To be useful factual information must be: Worthy of trust Trusted Understood Sensibly acted upon How do you achieve this? The economy? Security? Climate change?

Risk vs. Uncertainty Risk Known possible outcomes Known costs associated with those outcomes Known probability of those outcomes Insurance possible Uncertainty Known and unknown possible outcomes Known and unknown costs associated with those outcomes Known and unknown probability of those outcomes Insurance not possible Hunch gambling possible

Avoiding the Ostrich Trap Predicting the Future?.8 x.8 x.8 x.8 =.4 Charles Linbloom "The next change" Requires continual monitoring and reassessment

Can’t Be Too Safe Rachet Also Risky Shift

Hierarchy of Wastebaskets

FactCheck.org

Recycling

Probablility drawings.com/201 5/09/23/what- does-probability- mean-in-your- profession/

Probability

Communication Matrix What do we say about them? What do we say about ourselves? What do they say about themselves? What do they they about us? Source: Truman National Security Project