The Pacific Puzzle Assessing Developing Trends in NE Asia David Dusseault, PhD Affiliate Researcher Aleksanteri Institute University of Helsinki

Introductory Thoughts Europe is not the only region which is emerging tentatively from the Post WWII political economic & social order. Changes in the ability of actors to accurately interpret the policy environment, garner resources and project political, social & economic interests on the domestic & regional stage have shifted significantly. The 21 st Century may belong to Asia, but the question that remains to be answered is what will the century make of Asia?

Macro Trends How much is the US commitment to existing regional security arrangements wavering & to what extent will regional interests be able to fill whatever gap is left behind? What role does the competition over necessary resources (water, energy, food supply) play in regional economic development and / or political (in)stability? How will regional interests deal with increasing concerns surrounding climate change & environmental sustainability without resorting to sum- zero solutions?

Initial Regional Assessment Russia: as resource base & political opportunist. Japan & South Korea: the sick old men of Asia? China: the economic and political middle kingdom. N. Korea: he who shall not be named.

Putin’s Russia From an economic perspective, Asia’s markets present a major economic opportunity for Russia’s energy, commodities and military hardware, but little else. From a strategic perspective, Russia takes what it can get, whether extracting concessions for territory (Japan’s northern territories) or competing with China for influence (economic & political) in Central Asia. Owing to Russia’s hard budgetary limits & nagging domestic institutional constraints, Russia’s regional FP is one that takes the shape of its container.

Abe’s Japan Restructuring Japan Inc. to suit changing regional economic realities: China as opportunity, S Korea as competitor, & Russia as resource base. Security wise, China (South China Sea claims) and North Korea (bad boy on the block) are existential threats to be monitored closely & countered more actively while Russia & the Northern Territories dispute remains on the back burner. Japan’s regional positioning is one of “running to stand still” economically while becoming increasingly active in response to challenges posed by perceived regional threats in the wake of re-orientation of US policy.

Park’s South Korea Economically hamstrung by similar forces that hinder Japan, one has to wonder where does the Korean economy find new drivers for growth in light of falling exports, high household debt and rising youth unemployment. The North’s military tit-for-tat keeps the South off balance politically, because it is THE issue which needs to be addressed if the peninsula is to be returned to economic political & cultural normalcy. Under prevailing structural conditions S. Korea appears to have the least amount of leeway when it comes to defining the country’s future regional political & economic role.

Zhang’s China Where does China go from here? With the economy hung-over after years of double digit growth China’s once sure model has lost some swagger. Domestic policies are set to re-invigorate the ruling party and energize the country for next steps in economic & social development. While economic opportunities remain albeit with less surety, China’s moves to project military force in the region are worrisome, whether it be territorial claims in the South China Sea, tit-for tat with US forces, or continuing support for N. Korea in light of the country’s on-going missile and nuclear weapons testing.

Kim’s North The epitome of a predatory state with citizens used as financial collateral in the world’s labor markets (construction in Europe / forestry in Russia’s Far East). As China’s counterbalance to US interest in S. Korea, the North’s saber- rattling still possesses instrumental value in a political & military sense. However, with persistent internal economic malaise & rumors abounding of regime instability, one needs to return to the obvious question what is Un’s end game?

Concluding Thoughts: Where to begin? The explanatory power (scientific inference) of individual schools of IR is limited to identifying specific components of regional policy formation & development (core interest formation & mechanisms to interpret the policy environment). That having been said, while state centric models may be increasingly relevant in the Asian case, the mushrooming of economic connections outside the boundaries of traditional political hierarchies limits their value as explanatory tools. A more flexible, holistic approach to the study of multi-layered political economic and social phenomena (considering both actors and structures simultaneously) may provide the way forward to a better understanding of just how the coming Asian century will look.