How Solar Technologies can benefit from the Copernicus Project Nur Energie November 2015

Contents 1.Utility scale solar energy technologies 2.Physical variables under consideration 3.The need for accurate datasets 4.The effect of climate change direction 5.Our dream for Copernicus (from a solar energy perspective)

1. Utility scale solar energy technologies Source: REN21 Renewables 2015 Global Status Report Total World Installed Power Capacity ~5TW Global Solar Capacity,

1. Utility scale solar energy technologies US: New Electric Generating Capacity Additions ( ) Increasingly, solar is contributing most in new power additions

1. Utility Scale Solar Energy Technologies Photovoltaic Systems (PV): Operate based on the photovoltaic effect (creation of voltage in a semiconductor material when exposed to electromagnetic radiation) Utilize the Global component of the solar radiation. Intermittent Operation (i.e. generate only during sunlight). Storage can be integrated with the use of batteries (currently at high cost). Concentrated Solar Thermal Systems (CSP): Utilize concentrated solar radiation to generate heat at high temperatures to run a thermal power cycle. Utilize the Direct component of the solar radiation. Can integrate thermal energy storage systems (significantly lower cost than PV+bat) Time of Day Generation PV generation follows the solar resource profile PV Generation Time of Day Solid power deliveryCSP Production shift capability CSP

2. Physical Variables Under Consideration Key variables for PV: Annual total solar resource (daily or seasonal variation are not important). Temperature (higher temperatures reduce output). Low level dependency on wind speed, atmospheric attenuation (compared to CSP). Concentrated Solar Thermal Systems (CSP): Annual total solar resource and short-term patterns as cloud transients have larger effect compared to PV. Wind, due to mirror stability and convective heat losses. Atmospheric attenuation losses due to transmission of solar flux over long distances.

3. The need for accurate datasets The Shams 1 CSP experience Satellite data were used to assess solar radiation but the method didn’t pick up dust particles. The real DNI was significantly lower than the estimations. Dust reduces insolation by about 30% so the resulting DNI in the site (Abu-Dhabi) was lower than Spain. Further, wind potential was significantly underestimated  RISK 3: Inaccurate estimation of dust leading to a requirement for a larger solar field installation.  RISK 4: Higher winds requiring the erection of a large wind breaker wall around the power plant. The Ivanpah Experience The 3 units of Ivanpah generated less electricity than expected during the first year. Part of the cause was the cloud cover at Ivanpah in 2015 which has been more than expected resulting in a reduction in solar radiation by nearly 10%.  RISK 1: Relying on only few years of measurements may not accurately predict long term lows or highs in meteorological conditions.  RISK 2: Multi year solar radiation “droughts” may not be forecasted and may result in lower profitability for years. Accurate datasets on the general climatic conditions are essential for the safe operation of solar power plants.

4. The effect of climate change direction Projects in North Africa & MENA Projects in North America Projects in South AmericaProjects in South Africa Most of Solar Energy Projects (especially CSP) are deployed in deserts close to populated centres and the sites could be considered as boundaries between different climates. So, an extended and rapid climate change (boundary move) could turn the microclimate of the site from desert to temperate and vice versa in a term of decade, having significant effect on the DNI values. The prediction for Climate Change Direction is vital for the development of solar energy projects Projects in Asia

5. Our dream for Big Data (from a solar energy perspective) Meteorological stations are usually located in population centres. Very few meteorological stations populate the desert areas of the Earth (Sahara, Kalahari, Saudi Arabia, Tibet). Further, very few of the meteorological stations record detailed solar data (global, diffuse, direct) Action ->> Copernicus to support the increase of the density of specialised meteorological stations at the desert areas and especially on the boundaries of the deserts in order to accurately record climate shifts. A. Increase accuracy of satellite based estimation with ground measurements at locations where no or sparse ground data exists. Locations of meteorological Stations

5. Our dream for Big Data (from a solar energy perspective) Accurate cloud tracking is important to CSP as it may or may not lead to a cloud transient event, which impacts production and may lead to solar field defocusing action, reduced output or even power station shut-down. CSP operators are relying on all-sky cameras to trace clouds. B. Provide real-time cloud tracking on specific locations Current State of the Art: In order to increase accuracy of cloud transient prediction, a CSP operator has to install a lattice of all-sky cameras at a distance around the CSP plant. By merging the pictures of all the cameras it is possible to make a model of the cloud formation and their trajectory. Action ->> Copernicus could provide real-time detailed images of the vicinity of the power plant allowing the power plant operator to track with exquisite detail cloud movements and exact time of future cloud transient events with 1hour notice. Good resolution images are required, circa 10m-25m per pixel A series of all sky-cameras surrounding the solar power plant

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