Tanker Supply & tanker incidents by Manager Research and Projects INTERTANKO Council - London 18 November 2008

Tanker supply

Tanker contracting bn $/ m dwt bn $ Source. Clarkson Shipyard Monitor m dwt Av $ dwt

Tanker fleet, orderbook, SH tankers m dwt Average age 10.9 years 89% <20 years old 75% <15 years old 61% <10 years old m dwt

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out 25,000 – 59,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet 1,61466 m dwt Orderb “ 31% Not DH ” 16%

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Panamaxes 60,000 – 79,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 39% Not DH 72 5 ” 19%

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Aframaxes 80,000 – 119,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 38% Not DH 99 9 ” 12%

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out Suezmaxes 120,000 – 199,999 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 54% Not DH 38 6 ” 10%

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out VLCCs 200,000 dwt + m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet m dwt Orderb “ 54% Not DH ” 19%

VLCC arriving AG next 30 days by hull 2007/08Number Source: Pareto Week number

Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out All tankers > 25,000 dwt m dwt Assumed balanced market end 2007 Fleet m dwt Orderb1, “ 45% SH ” 16%

Investment in new tankers Some $ 327 billion invested in new buildings since 2000 *Assuming only DB/DS tankers continue to trade beyond 2010, some SH tanker will most probably continue until the age of 25 years old %

Tanker fleet development Tanker fleet increase : 61% : 22% m dwt number

Tanker incidents

Tanker incidents by cause Number

Tanker incidents by cause

Tanker incidents Engine 2006: : : 48 Explosions 2006: : : 7

Reported tanker incidents fatalities,  6 single,  2 fall into tank  4 collision w/cargo ship  8 explosion LPG ship under repair  14 small tanker sank in Vietnam  15 bulker rammed by small tanker China Incidents on the way down No serious pollution incidents Piracy Engine failure high 2007 EMSA report positive for tankers

SH trading beyond 2010? –AustraliaNo –ChinaNo –EU No –Mexico No –Romania No –S KoreaNo –PhilippinesNo –UAENo no official note to IMO on – –Bahamas Yes – –Barbados Yes – –Liberia Yes – –Marshall Isl.Yes – –Panama FlagYes – –JapanYes – –Singapore Yes – –India Yes – –Hong Kong * Yes *20 years Flag/Port States positions MARPOL 20 Trading until the age of 25 years – –United States N/A OPA90

Global Financial Crisis Tanker Fleet Removals Source: INTERTANKO m dwt Conversions Small Aframax Suezmax VLCC ? ?