Climate change – Impacts, adaptation and mitigation Dr. Kyrre Sundseth and Prof. Jozef M. Pacyna NILU-Norwegian Institute for Air Research Department of Environmental Impacts and Economics (IMPEC) University of Latvia Latvia University of Agriculture 26 th and 27 th of April, 2016.

Observed climate changes The main observed change in our climate system links to global warming in form of a successively warmer surface of the Earth since Figure: (a) Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly, and (b) Observed change in surface temperature (IPCC, 2014).

Evidence of climate change Other evidence for a rapid climate change are the observations on the following : Decreased snow and ice cover Warming of the oceans Sea level rise Ocean acidification Extreme events Figures: The Northern Hemisphere snow cover and Arctic summer ice extent as well as the change in global average upper ocean heat content, and global average sea level change (IPCC, 2014).

The Zeppelin observatory The observatory is located in the Arctic on Zeppelin Mountain (at 79° N, 474 masl), close to Ny-Ålesund, in the island archipelago of Svalbard. An ideal platform for the monitoring of global atmospheric change. NILU conducts measurements of more than 20 greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, halogenated greenhouse gases, methane and ozone.

Measurements I A significant increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere since the observations started (Carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Zeppelin observatory has exceeded 400 ppm). In the period of , the increase in methane concentration is more than 1% on Zeppelin, against a global increase of 0.34% Figures: Arctic and northern hemisphere daily mean of carbon dioxide for the period and observations of methane for the period (Myhre et al., 2014).

Measurements II Halocarbons i.e. chlorofluorocarbons (CFC gases and HCFC gases), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC gases) and other perfluorated gases are the most important gases that originates from anthropogenic sources solely. Figure: Daily averaged mixing ratios of monitored ( ) CFC gases at Zeppelin observatory Figures: Development of the annual means the observed HCFCs and HFCs at the Zeppelin Observatory for the period (Myhre et al., 2014).

Radiative forcing Figure: Radiative forcing by emissions and drivers (IPCC, 2014).

Impacts of climate change A global surface temperature increase expects to cause: i)an increasing contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and wet and dry seasons, ii)an increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold winter temperatures to occur with higher frequency and duration, and iii)a likely global mean sea level rise. Global warming is therefore likely to affect ecosystems, water resources, human health, forestry, agriculture, food security, and settlements. In addition, it is becoming clear that climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have serious consequences on human health. CNN.com

Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014 Emission scenarios

Cumulative CO 2 emissions should remain below about 3200 Gt for a 66% chance of staying below 2°C At present emissions rates the remaining budget would be used up in about 30 years If emissions continue to grow as projected to 2019 and then continue at the 2019 rate, the remaining budget would be used up about 22 years from Source: Friedlingstein et al 2014 Friedlingstein et al 2014 Cumalative CO2 emissions

© IEA Clean Coal Centrewww.iea-coal.org.uk Carbon capture and storage Three Options; Post-combustion Pre-combustion Oxyfuel Two Options; Pipelines Ships Three Options; Coal seams, 40 Gt CO 2 Oil and gas fields, 1,000 Gt CO 2 Deep saline aquifers – up to 10,000 Gt CO 2

Cost of abatement

Co-benefits of mitigation Waste disposal is a very important source of emissions of Polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs) and Polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs). Open burning and accidental burning of wastes is an important source of GHG emissions on a global scale and one of the largest global sources of POPs. Enhanced collaboration and communication between key climate change and air pollution stakeholders (particularly for unintentionally produced POPs) would be essential to develop co-benefits strategies at international, national and local scales, which may include various environmental protection authorities and governmental departments, as well as industry and academia.

Waste management impacts on climate change in the EU The EU states that climate change impacts from solid waste management originates mostly from methane released as biodegradable wastes decay under the airless (anaerobic) conditions in landfills. About one third of anthropogenic emissions of methane is emitted from this source while only 1 % of nitrous oxide emissions and less than 0.5 % of carbon dioxide emissions originates the source. Reducing the amount of methane emitted from landfills would thus have the greatest potential for reducing the overall climate change impacts of solid waste management.

The UNEP waste hierarchy UNEP particularly argue for a holistic approach to waste management to account for positive consequences for GHG emissions. The overall climate impact or benefit of the waste management system will depend on both direct emissions and indirect, downstream GHG savings. There is clear recognition of the considerable climate benefit that could be achieved through improved management of wastes.

Conclusions At present, climate change is the major environmental challenge. Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks. Substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades can reduce climate risks, increase prospects for effective adaptation and reduce the costs and challenges of mitigation in the longer term. Many adaptation and mitigation options can help address climate change, but no single option is sufficient by itself. Effective implementation depends on policies and cooperation at all scales and can be enhanced through integrated responses that link adaptation and mitigation with other societal objectives.

Thank you very much for your attention! Zeppelin mountain. New Aalesund.