THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION Professors Robert Lawrence and Lawrence Summers December 3, 2015.

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Presentation transcript:

THE FUTURE OF GLOBALIZATION Professors Robert Lawrence and Lawrence Summers December 3, 2015

Global economy slows? October 12, 2013July 27, 2013

Poverty falls – but inequality grows? June 1, 2013 April 22, 2009

Instability increases? June 14, 2014February 14, 2015

New world order develops? May 4, 2013February 21, 2015

Final Exam Logistics Final Exam is Friday December 11, 9am-12 noon Location: Science Center B Final Exam Format: Part A: Define a term and describe its relevance to globalization. (10 terms) Part B: Essays. Take a stance on a given statement, and include readings in your response. (Choose 2 essays from 4) Part C: Scenario Response. You will be given a real world scenario relevant to the course: write a policy memo in response. (Choose 1 scenario of 2)

Final Exam Logistics Final Exam Reviews in section Study Aids: Lecture Videos will become available by tomorrow (Friday 4 th Dec). We will release a list of terms/IDs by tomorrow. The TFs will be holding additional OH open to everyone throughout reading period. See website for details.

Difference between misery and happiness: not that much Debtor’s Prospects: “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.” “Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness.” Mr. Micawber in Debtor’s Prison, David Copperfield by Charles Dickens

Different opinions on food price prospects Tweeten and Thompson (2008): 79% increase in demand for foods by 2050 vs. increase in supply of 57% (71% for cereals). Result: 44% increase in prices Rosegrant et. al. (2008): If annual yield growth in cereals could be increased from 1% to 1.43% annually: Result: no price increases Source: Tom Hertel American Agricultural Economic Association Presidential Address 2011

Difference between misery and happiness: not that much US Energy Information Agency: Projections Annual oil production growthOil Price per barrel in 2035 Same GDP %  $50 (low price scenario) 0.4%  $200 (high price scenario) Average annual world oil prices in three cases, (2009 dollars per barrel)

Our ability to predict the future Famous predictions: “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible” --Lord Kelvin 1895 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” --Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” --Ken Olsen, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977 (DEC produced business mini-computers) Boston in the Future 1896