“SKUNK” Activity

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY MR. RAGLON 7 TH GRADE MATH C.E. KING 2014

KEY TERMS Experiment Probability Event Trial Outcome Sample Space Theoretical Probability Complementary Events

KEY TERMS -REVIEW The probability of an event, P(event) measures the likelihood that the event will occur. Probability is a measure between 0 and 1.

KEY TERMS- REVIEW An experiment is an activity involving chance in which results are observed. Each observation of an experiment is a trial. Each result is an outcome. A set of one or more outcomes is an event. –Examples of events tossing a coin and it landing on tails rolling a '3' on a die rolling a number > 4 on a die drawing a card from the suit of clubs

KEY TERMS -REVIEW Theoretical Probability

KEY TERMS -TODAY

ACTIVITY Work with your small group Answer the questions on the handout Keep in mind the essential question. –How do you calculate the probability of complementary events?

QUESTION 1.

QUESTION 2

Write a summary in your Cornell Notes.

PLICKERS/ KAHOOT

TOPIC: INDEPENDENT COMPOUND EVENTS Essential Question: How do you calculate the probability of independent compound events?

KEY TERMS -REVIEW

QUESTION 1.

QUESTION 2

KEY TERMS -REVIEW Theoretical Probability

WHAT IS A COMPOUND EVENT? A compound event consists of two or more simple events. Examples: rolling a die and tossing a penny spinning a spinner and drawing a card tossing two dice tossing two coins

WHAT ARE INDEPENDENT EVENTS? When the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of a second event, these are called independent events.

EXAMPLE 1- TABLE What is the probability that I flip heads on the first coin and heads on the second coin? Create a table show the sample space.

EXAMPLE 2- TREE DIAGRAM A spinner in spun and a coin is flipped. What is the probability of the spinner landing on blue and the coin landing on heads?

SHORTCUT

HOW DO YOU CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT COMPOUND EVENTS? The probability of two independent events is found by multiplying the probability of the first event by the probability of the second event.

ACTIVITY- EVENS/ODDS 1.Draw two columns in your notebook. Label one side “Evens” and the other side ”Odds.” 2.Draw 12 circles on either side. You may distribute the circles however you wish. 3.Roll the dice. Multiply the numbers shown on the dice. Cross out circle. 4.Players take turn rolling the dice until all circles have been crossed out. 5.The first person to cross out all circles wins the game.

FOLLOW-UP QUESTION Based on your results, do you think it is more likely to get a product that is even or odd? Create a sample space to justify your answer Die Number #2 Die Number #1

TOPIC: DEPENDENT COMPOUND EVENTS Essential Question: How do you find the probability of dependent compound events?

REVIEW Compound Events Table Tree Diagram Multiply X =

REVIEW- INDEPENDENT EVENTS When the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of a second event, these are called independent events.

WHAT ARE DEPENDENT EVENTS?

EXAMPLE 2. (WITH REPLACEMENT)

ACTIVITY Use the cards and the M&Ms to answer the questions on the handout. (8 min)

MAKING PREDICTIONS USING THEORETICAL PROBABILITY Essential Question? How do you make predictions using theoretical probability?

REVIEW Compound Events Table Tree Diagram Multiply X =

REVIEW Compound Events Independent Dependent

MAKING PREDICTIONS A Prediction is something you reasonably expect to happen in the future. We can use the probability of an event to set up a proportion to predict a future event.

EXAMPLE 1 2 x 5

EXAMPLE 2 6 x 5 1 x 5 X = 5

SUMMARY

TOPIC :EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Essential Question- How do you calculate the experimental probability of events?

MIND MAP REVIEW Theoretical Probability- Structure Simple Events Sample Space – All possible Outcomes List Ex: 1,2,3,4,5,6 Compound Events Sample Space Table Tree Diagram * Or Multiply the probability of each event Independent vs Dependent Event Without Replacement

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY

DIFFERENCES Theoretical Probability Based on the structure of the event Experimental Probability Based on the results of an experiment

EXAMPLE P (Blue)=

ACTIVITY

EXIT TICKET

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF COMPOUND EVENTS Essential Question: How do you find the experimental probability of compound events?

EXAMPLE 1

YOUR TURN A jeweler sells necklaces made in three sizes and two different metals. What is the experimental probability that the next necklace sold is a 20 inch gold necklace?

EXAMPLE 2 MealNumber Burger12 Ham Sandwich13 BBQ Sandwich8 Cheeseburger7 DrinkNumber Soda9 Coffee17 Juice14 During a promotion at Dillon’s Burger, customers received a special promotion when they ordered a burger and a drink. What is the experimental probability that the next customer will order a BBQ sandwich and a Soda?

SUMMARY

MAKING PREDICTIONS WITH EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Essential Question: How do you use experimental probability to make predictions?

MAKING PREDICTIONS WITH EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Step 1 Find the experimental probability Step 2 Set up a proportion

EXAMPLE 1 MealNumber Burger12 Ham Sandwich13 BBQ Sandwich8 Cheeseburger7 DrinkNumber Soda9 Coffee17 Juice14 During a promotion at Dillon’s Burger, customers received a special promotion when they ordered a burger and a drink. If 300 people entered the restaurant that day, estimate how many customers bought a Burger and Juice ?

EXAMPLE 2 A jeweler sells necklaces made in three sizes and two different metals. If 300 people order necklaces, how many people will order a 12 inch silver chain?

SUMMARY

ACTIVITY Choose 3 of the 5 questions to answer. Cut out the three questions and glue them on the paper. Show your work in the space below. (15 minutes)

EXIT TICKET At Dale’s Donuts, customers receive a discount when they purchase one doughnut and a drink. The choices of the first 50 customers of the day are recorded below. Dale plans to extend the offer to the next 625 customers. Based on the data in the table, how many customers will purchase coffee and A chocolate-filled doughnut.