Oil Refining Performance Overview South Africa vs Southeast Asia and Western Europe Operating Years 2006–2012 SAPIA November 12, 2013

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 2 Content Data Comparison Methodology Performance Comparison Data and Trends  Gross Margin  Operational Availability and Utilisation  Operating Costs  Energy Usage and Costs  Maintenance Costs  Personnel Work Hours and Costs Cost of Production of Transportation Fuels

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 3 Protecting Intellectual Property (IP) Mutual Trust and Obligations Written authorization required before sharing IP with a third party Client’s IP Input Data Solomon’s IP Methodology, Metrics, & Database Aggregated Industry Results Client Results Company Annual Reports & Websites Investment Community Taxing Authorities Potential Third Parties Consulting Firms Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) Subscription Agreement

Methodology Used in Comparative Analysis

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 5 Methodology Comparison of the performance of the South African oil refineries against  Southeast Asia – Competitive Peers  Western Europe – Similar Age/History of Refineries Average (50 percentile) data used throughout  Note – 50% of the population have performed better than shown Trends shown for four studies – 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012 All comparisons based on US $ as the common currency  However, some indicators may have some minor exchange rate effects South Africa in 2010 has an index of 100

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 6 Data Preparation Solomon Fuels Comparative Performance Analysis (CPA) Study data from 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012 This data is proprietary to Solomon and is supplied to our clients on the basis that it is not disseminated further without permission  This permission has been given for the SAPIA presentation Solomon does not allow actual study results to be used in a public domain environment As a result, all the following trends have been re-indexed from the study data on the basis that South Africa in 2010 has an index of 100 The relative position of South Africa vs the two Peer Groups is clearly represented

Gross Margin

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 8 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Gross Margin Southeast Asia has had tightening margins as additional capacity has come on line along with low economic growth.

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 9 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Refinery Configuration Factor Steep increase in Southeast Asia refinery configuration factor due to increased number of high conversion refineries in Peer Group. Less complex refineries are being shut down in Europe.

Operational Availability and Utilisation

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 11 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Operational Availability (Turnaround Duration Annualised + Average of Study Year and Previous Year Downtime) Improving Operational Availability in South Africa is key to improving performance against peer groups.

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 12 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Process Utilisation (For Study Year Only – With Turnarounds) General increase in Utilisation in 2012 as the world economy recovers from the 2008/2009 downturn and uneconomic refineries are shut down.

Operating Costs

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 14 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Operating Cost Operating Cost driven by energy costs, which tend to be in-line with crude cost, which rose US $30/bbl from 2010 to 2012.

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 15 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Non-Energy Operating Cost South African refinery Non-Energy Costs driven by higher personnel costs, however 2012 shows little change from 2010.

Energy Usage and Costs

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 17 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Energy Intensity Index (EII) Decline in Southeast Asia EII driven by increased number of modern refineries in Peer Group. Western Europe has improved by 1 EII number per study for the last nine studies.

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 18 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Energy Cost South African decrease in the energy price for fuel is offset for the most part by a steep increase in imported electricity costs.

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 19 Purchased Electricity Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia

Maintenance Costs

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 21 Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia Maintenance Cost (Labour + Materials) Solomon studies show a strong relationship between maintenance costs and operational availability—poor operational availability usually results in high maintenance costs, however South African costs are driven by cost of labour.

Personnel Work Hours and Costs

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 23 Total Work Hours Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 24 Personnel Cost Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 25 Inferred Cost of Labour Western Europe South Africa Southeast Asia

Cost of Production of Transportation Fuels

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 27 North America Europe FSU Asia Middle East Latin America 2013 (Forecast) Global Oil Demand Growth, M b/d % % % Africa IEA Data Shows Global Oil Demand Annual Changes Since 2010 (k b/d) Source:

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 28 Worldwide Oil Products Trade Flow , Sources: IEA, EIA, and BP Thousand barrels per day 60

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC Fuels Study Hundreds of refineries, representing more than 85% of the worldwide crude refining capacity, voluntarily participated in Solomon’s 2012 Fuels Study.

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 30 Transportation Fuels Methodology Calculation of Production Cost Gasoline Jet Fuel Distillate Fuels equals Transportation Fuels Production Cost Raw Material Cost plus Cash OPEX minus By-Products Revenue divided by Transportation Fuels Volume $ $

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 31 Transportation Fuel Production Cost 2012 Study – Worldwide 2010 X-axis EDC Percentile Quartile 2012 Cost, US $/bbl 2314

Proprietary and Confidential © 2013 HSB Solomon Associates LLC 32 Transportation Fuel Production Cost 2012 Study – Worldwide X-axis EDC Percentile Quartile 2314 Southeast Asia Western Europe South Africa Cost, US $/bbl

Oil Refining Performance Overview South Africa vs Southeast Asia and Western Europe Operating Years 2006–2012 SAPIA November 12, 2013