California Energy Commission California Energy Demand 2016-2026 Preliminary Electricity Forecast: Pacific Gas and Electric Planning Area July 7, 2015 Malachi.

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Presentation transcript:

California Energy Commission California Energy Demand Preliminary Electricity Forecast: Pacific Gas and Electric Planning Area July 7, 2015 Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Demand Analysis Office 1

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary Planning area is now the PG&E TAC area –Six climate zones Electricity consumption growth in the new mid case about the same as in CEDU 2014 Sales and peak forecasts down because of higher PV adoption More growth in inland climate zones 2

California Energy Commission PG&E Electricity Consumption New mid case grows by 1.25% per year , compared to 1.29% in CEDU 2014 mid case for planning area under old definition 3

California Energy Commission PG&E Electricity Sales New mid case grows at 0.61% per year ( ) compared to 1.12% for CEDU 2014 mid case 4

California Energy Commission PG&E Peak Demand New mid case 800 MW below CEDU 2014 mid case by

California Energy Commission PG&E PV Energy Almost 6,000 GWh difference between new and old mid cases by

California Energy Commission PG&E PV Peak Impacts CED 2015 Preliminary mid case corresponds to around 6,000 MW capacity in

California Energy Commission PG&E Light-Duty EV Energy Around 2,800 GWh consumption in CED 2015 Preliminary mid case by

California Energy Commission Efficiency Programs: EM&V Adjustment Net effect: -158 GWh in 2015, -65 GWh in

California Energy Commission Growth in Electricity Consumption by Climate Zone, Climate Zone Greater Bay Area North Coast North Valley Central Valley Southern Valley Central Coast High Case 1.66%1.30%1.09%1.42%1.32%1.17% Mid Case 1.41%1.10%0.91%1.21%1.19%0.91% Low Case 1.18%0.97%0.83%1.12%1.03%0.76% 10

California Energy Commission Growth in Peak Demand by Climate Zone, Climate Zone Greater Bay Area North Coast North Valley Central Valley Southern Valley Central Coast High Case 0.71%0.39%0.84%1.29%1.63%0.62% Mid Case 0.52%0.20%0.68%1.09%1.39%0.41% Low Case -0.12%-0.15%0.33%0.73%1.03%-0.06% 11

California Energy Commission Comparison with PG&E Forecast PG&E has higher sales forecast –Higher starting point (2014) –Slightly higher EV forecast –Lower growth in electricity rates –Higher industrial forecast Growth in PG&E peak demand forecast is very close to CED 2015 Preliminary mid case; starting points differ Similar PV forecast 12