From Understanding to Influencing: Yemen CSA Macro Social Analysis Conference Mesky Brhane Social Scientist MNSRE World Bank May 18, 2006

Outline of the presentation Objectives Methods Findings Policy dialogue: challenges and impact

Motivation for the Yemen CSA Provide analytical input to the Yemen ’ s 5 Year Development Plan for Poverty Reduction (PRSP) 2006 Bank ’ s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) FY06

Key Questions What are the trends in poverty and inequality in Yemen and what are the social factors that underlie this? What are the main social changes occurring in Yemeni society today? What are their causes? How are institutions evolving as a result of these changing conditions? How are these institutional changes inturn impinging on poverty and inequality?

Research Methods Draw from existing development and academic research Interview key persons at national level (decision makers, traditional authority figures etc) Public expenditure analysis on poverty targeting of government services (by governorate and urban-rural dimensions)

Research Methods In-depth qualitative research in areas representative of political/ecological diff. Indian Ocean Red Sea Saudi Arabia Former South YEMEN Former North

Major trends shaping Yemeni society (1) 1. Following unification of north and south Yemen, system of production shifting to a market economy

State farms Collapsed

Major trends shaping Yemeni society (2) 2. Role of the state is expanding (social services, roads etc.) And is reshaping formal and informal institutions

Integrating Formal and Informal Institutions – 1 State certification of tribal leaders to serve as interlocutors Appointment of tribal leaders to high government office

Integrating Formal and Informal Institutions – 2 Formalizing role of tribal leaders bypasses political and social system of checks and balances Reduces traditional systems of accountability Exacerbates local power conflict through competition among ruling families

Integrating Formal and Informal Institutions – 3 Weakens traditional systems of conflict resolution but the formal legal system is ineffective Some M ’ Shayk act above the law (e.g. illegal seizures of property)

Distribution of Assets - Land Increasing land concentration Private appropriation of communal land Limited access to endowment land

Distribution of Assets - Water Privatization of communal land restricts access to water Community systems for water management weakened Deep well irrigation individualizes water Shayks largest consumers of water but charged with dispute resolution

Impacts on Rural Livelihoods In the South: Lost land when restituted to former owners In the North: Shayks control cash cropping (qat), but live in towns

Feminization of Subsistence Agriculture

Migration of male youth & children

Impacts on Urban Livelihoods Urban areas offer the prospect of social mobility through cash income New professions: Transport sector offers new employment opportunities Traditional Artisans: declining opportunities due to competition of cheaper imports Shanty dwellers increasingly excluded New forms of social solidarity (e.g., neighborhood associations)

Risks to social inclusion Poverty, inequality and patronage threaten social cohesion Deepening poverty is stressing systems for social solidarity Traditional systems of accountability are weakened

Opportunities for Social Cohesion Traditional mechanisms of solidarity and conflict resolution remain important Decentralization, if appropriately resourced, builds on local traditions and provides opportunity for more equity and voice

CSA and the policy dialogue Analytical inputs to Development Policy Review Country Assistance Strategy (06-09) Yemen 2 nd PRSP Project design (Rainfed Agr., Fisheries) DFID ’ s Country Assistance Plan

Challenges in policy dialogue – 1 1.Diagnostic analysis of CSA does not lend itself to clear sectoral (technical) recommendations 2.Political sensitivity (North-South, tribal shayks) 3.Gov ’ t overwhelmed with multiple analyses

Challenges in policy dialogue – 2 4. Not based in country and could not be part of the ongoing PRSP process 5. Few new projects in the new CAS (only APLs from previous CAS, IDA reduction)

Policy Impact of the CSA - 1 Development Policy Review (PREM input for CAS and PRSP) Political economy analysis drew on CSA Highlighted growing inequality Recommended strengthening decentralization

Policy Impact of the CSA – 2 CAS linkages CSA analysis identified as a monitoring tool for CAS ’ 06- ’ 09 CAS highlights role of communities in managing water resources Improving targeting for social safety net Project on decentralization/rural development Social Development project (SFD)

Policy Impact of the CSA – 3 Proposed Analytical work building on the CSA Water PSIA (GTZ, Bank) Rural Land ESW (Bank) Justice for the poor (DFID, Bank) Social exclusion (DFID)