YORK AND NORTH YORKSHIRE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ENGAGEMENT PAPER JANUARY 2010 Jonathan French York and North Yorkshire Partnership Unit

What is the Economic Assessment? Tell the story of our economy and how we will might earn our living in 20 years time

How will it be used? Evidence for Regional Strategy Informs local authorities, community strategies and localities Meets statutory requirement for North Yorkshire Supports assessment for City of York

How is it prepared? Building on what we already know Iterative Collaborative Functional economic geographies NB Long term view - understand downturn but rising above it

Components Labour Market Areas (localities) Business, People, Infrastructure (administrative areas ) Spatial (regional spatial strategy)

Spatial Analysis

Employment growth England 25% Moors and Coast 9% York and Vales 37% Dales and WY connections 44%

Employment Change EnglandYNY Energy-62%-75% Manufacturing-35%-11% Hospitality and retail +33%+44% Finance and Business +74%+91% Public Sector+33%+35%

Some points Food and Drink in decline Services to residents c % of jobs (half of which public sector) 20-25% of public sector jobs economic drivers 20% loss of retail space (-4% UK) Old aged dependency ratios c.54% in NY in 2026, c. 37% in 2006 but not a York issue

York Sub area Rapid job growth but now nearly static especially finance and hospitality and retail HE and Science base continuing growth Significant economic restructuring – loss of manufacturing High proportion of public sector Self contained labour market Skill levels better than region Central importance of City

Vales and Tees A growing and diversifying economy but now marking time High proportion in public sector but dependence dropping Manufacturing (42% Food) sustained Exceptional rise in hospitality and retail More higher level occupations for residents than York Less self contained than York sub area

West Yorkshire Connections High growth, diversified and continues to grow Very high growth and dependence on finance and business services Growth and above average dependence on manufacturing Importance of hospitality and retail to Harrogate and Knaresborough Net out commuting to West Yorkshire High skill levels

Remote Rural West Exceptionally high growth in employment now marking time Reducing dependence on hospitality and retail but still high Self employment very important Half jobs in micro enterprise – Twice sub regional rate Commuting to peripheral employment centres Fewer young people of working age

Coast A low growth and unchanging economy Manufacturing sustained High dependence on hospitality and retail but very low growth High levels of worklessness Low skills Very self contained labour market High proportions of older residents

Remote Rural East Job growth same as national with little change to employment structure Very high and unchanging dependence on hospitality and retail High levels of self employment but less than Remote Rural West Fewer young people of working age Slightly higher levels of worklessness An outflow of residents travelling to work

Conclusions Next iteration in February Observations on work to date Any suggestions for research?