RESULT OF OPINION POLL CONDUCTED BY THE CENTER FOR GLOBAL PEACE INITIATIVE (CGPI) FOR THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA AND THE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION FOR LAGOS STATE

The sanctity of the ballot box is the corner stone of any thriving democracy. This explains why a great lot of effort is usually expended on having credible elections that could be adjudged nearly by all as free and fair.

As parts of build up to acceptable electoral outcomes, pre-election opinion polls have become acceptable means of gauging the likely sway of elections. When diligently conducted, they serve as a barometer for gauging the feelings of the people; and they also have the potentials of bringing to light the core electoral issues; sharpen them and task political parties to look into their election strategies and program

As corporate citizens and stakeholders in the ‘Nigerian project’, the CGPI launched its opinion poll for both the presidential election and the gubernatorial election of Lagos state on the 17 th of January 2015 using the ‘Google application’ portal with threads linked to other online sources, such as ‘facebook’, ‘WHATSAPP etc.

The deadline was 1 st of February 2015 to allow for analysis and publication of result at least two weeks before the elections slated to commence on the 14 th of February The questions asked were:

‘Who is your preferred candidate for the presidential ticket? And the options were: (a) General Muhammadu Buhari (GMB) of the APC. (b) Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ) of the PDP.

‘Who is your preferred candidate for the governor of Lagos state? The options were (a) Akinwunmi Ambode (AA) of the APC (B) Jimi Agbaje (JK) of the PDP

Our option of parties and candidates was limited to the two leading parties –APC and PDP- owing to our belief that the contest is essentially between the two; hence the choice of their candidates in the two categories cited above. Besides, our opinion is in line with what has been observed by other survey outfits

Before reeling out the result of CGPI poll, it is appropriate to give a summary of what obtained from other survey outfits.

SAHARA REPORTERS OPINION POLL (15 TH OCTOBER 2014); DURATION OF SURVEY (24 HRS) PARTICIPANTSGMB%GEJ% OTHER S % 15,43512,246793,189210

PARTICIPANTSGMB%GEJ% OTHER S % 8,866 6, , * It should be noted that the ‘BUILD UP NIGERIA’ poll was organized by President Jonathan’s Special Adviser on Social Media, Reno Omokri

RENO OMOKRI (1) on his twitter Q: ‘Who will be more tolerant of criticism? Options: ‘retweet’ to vote GEJ; ‘tweet ‘favorite’ to vote GMB’ PARTICIPANTSGMB%GEJ% OTHERS %

PARTICIPANTSGMB%GEJ% OTHER S % RENO OMOKRI (2) on his twitter handle Q; ‘Who will respect the rule of law? Options: ‘retweet’ to vote GEJ, tweet ‘favorite’ to vote GMB

It should be noted that Reno Omokri conducted these two other surveys using his twitter handle (even with the hashtag #WhyIwillVoteGEJ” ) after alleging manipulation of the ‘BUILD UP’ poll; however the result from his twitter was very consistent with other surveys which put the APC candidate GMB far ahead of the incumbent

PARTICIPA NTS GMB%GEJ% OTH ERS %

* Omojuwa is a popular Nigerian blogger and socio- economic and political commentator

PARTICIPA NTS GMB%GEJ% OTH ERS %

** The poll by NIGERIANEYE had a total of 9 parties/candidates, but the two leading parties polled the highest figures

PARTICIPANT S GMB%GEJ% OTHERS 8,2346,

***The AIT (African Independent Television) is believed to be a pro- PDP platform judging by the amount of smear campaign against the APC candidate)

PARTICIP ANTS GMB%GEJ% OTH ERS

PARTICIP ANTS AA%JK% OTH ERS

There is consistency in the outcomes of all the polls over a four months period, which gave outright victory to the APC candidate General Muhammadu Buhari

The APC candidate (Gen. Muhammadu Buhari) polls between 60% and 70% of total poll, while the incumbent President and the candidate of the PDP, (Goodluck Jonathan) polls between 25% and 35%

In Lagos state, the APC candidate (Akinwunmi Ambode) polls around 75%, while Jimi Agbaje of the PDP polls around 25% There is a high rate of response from the poll sources, indicating the readiness of Nigerians for the February elections

The sources used by the poll outfits are what Nigerians are familiar with

This may be the first election in Nigeria where the incumbent faces an impending defeat

S/NS/N SURVEY OUTFITS NO OF PARTICIPANTS GMB%GEJ%OTHERS 1 SAHARA REPORTERS 15,43512,246793, BUILDUP NIGERIA8,866 6, , RENO OMOKRI (1) 2,218 2, RENO OMOKRI (2) 1,410 1, OMOJUWA 3,741 3, NIGERIANEYE4,827 3, , AIT8,2346, , **CGPI